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When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-29 Jonathan Koh , Daniel Steinfeld , Olivia Martius

In many sequential decision-making problems we may want to manage risk by minimizing some measure of variability in costs in addition to minimizing a standard criterion. Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is a relatively new risk measure that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-07-14 Yinlam Chow , Mohammad Ghavamzadeh

In this paper we combine two powerful computational techniques, well-tempered metadynamics and time lagged independent component analysis. The aim is to develop a new tool for studying rare events and exploring complex free energy…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-12-08 James McCarty , Michele Parrinello

Recurrent neural networks for language models like long short-term memory (LSTM) have been utilized as a tool for modeling and predicting long term dynamics of complex stochastic molecular systems. Recently successful examples on learning…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-07-15 Wenqi Zeng , Siqin Cao , Xuhui Huang , Yuan Yao

Many recently introduced enhanced sampling techniques are based on biasing coarse descriptors (collective variables) of a molecular system on the fly. Sometimes the calculation of such collective variables is expensive and becomes a…

Computational Physics · Physics 2015-09-01 Marco Jacopo Ferrarotti , Sandro Bottaro , Andrea Pérez-Villa , Giovanni Bussi

We propose a new method to obtain kinetic properties of infrequent events from molecular dynamics simulation. The procedure employs a recently introduced variational approach [Valsson and Parrinello, Phys. Rev. Lett. 113, 090601 (2014)] to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-08-19 James McCarty , Omar Valsson , Pratyush Tiwary , Michele Parrinello

Enhanced sampling methods are indispensable in computational physics and chemistry, where atomistic simulations cannot exhaustively sample the high-dimensional configuration space of dynamical systems due to the sampling problem. A class of…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2024-04-04 Jakub Rydzewski , Ming Chen , Tushar K. Ghosh , Omar Valsson

Molecular motors and other complex nonequilibrium systems are controlled by large sets of design parameters, and optimizing those parameters requires computing sensitivities -- derivatives of dynamical observables with respect to the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-05-12 John Strahan , Todd R. Gingrich

Machine learning (ML) tools such as encoder-decoder convolutional neural networks (CNN) can represent incredibly complex nonlinear functions which map between combinations of images and scalars. For example, CNNs can be used to map…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-27 Alexander Scheinker

Classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulations will be able to reach sampling in the second timescale within five years, producing petabytes of simulation data at current force field accuracy. Notwithstanding this, MD will still be in the…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2018-10-24 Adrià Pérez , Gerard Martínez-Rosell , Gianni De Fabritiis

The complexity of glasses makes it challenging to explain their dynamics. Machine Learning (ML) has emerged as a promising pathway for understanding glassy dynamics by linking their structural features to rearrangement dynamics. Support…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2025-02-11 Arabind Swain , Sean Alexander Ridout , Ilya Nemenman

Using a coarse molecular-dynamics (CMD) approach with an appropriate choice of coarse variable (order parameter), we map the underlying effective free-energy landscape for the melting of a crystalline solid. Implementation of this approach…

Materials Science · Physics 2009-11-11 Miguel A. Amat , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis , Dimitrios Maroudas

As a technique that can compactly represent complex patterns, machine learning has significant potential for predictive inference. K-fold cross-validation (CV) is the most common approach to ascertaining the likelihood that a machine…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-24 Juan M Gorriz , R. Martin Clemente , F Segovia , J Ramirez , A Ortiz , J. Suckling

Spectral methods have emerged as a simple yet surprisingly effective approach for extracting information from massive, noisy and incomplete data. In a nutshell, spectral methods refer to a collection of algorithms built upon the eigenvalues…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-26 Yuxin Chen , Yuejie Chi , Jianqing Fan , Cong Ma

The development of enhanced sampling methods has greatly extended the scope of atomistic simulations, allowing long-time phenomena to be studied with accessible computational resources. Many such methods rely on the identification of an…

Computational Physics · Physics 2022-06-08 Luigi Bonati , GiovanniMaria Piccini , Michele Parrinello

Simulating rare events, such as the transformation of a reactant into a product in a chemical reaction typically requires enhanced sampling techniques that rely on heuristically chosen collective variables (CVs). We propose using…

We introduce a method to obtain one-dimensional collective variables for studying rarely occurring transitions between two metastable states separated by a high free energy barrier. No previous information, not even approximated, on the…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-03-09 Dan Mendels , GiovanniMaria Piccini , Michele Parrinello

Atypical, rare trajectories of dynamical systems are important: they are often the paths for chemical reactions, the haven of (relative) stability of planetary systems, the rogue waves that are detected in oil platforms, the structures that…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-04-12 Cristian Giardina , Jorge Kurchan , Vivien Lecomte , Julien Tailleur

The large number of spectral variables in most data sets encountered in spectral chemometrics often renders the prediction of a dependent variable uneasy. The number of variables hopefully can be reduced, by using either projection…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2007-09-26 Fabrice Rossi , Damien François , Vincent Wertz , Marc Meurens , Michel Verleysen

Coarse-graining has become an area of tremendous importance within many different research fields. For molecular simulation, coarse-graining bears the promise of finding simplified models such that long-time simulations of large-scale…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2019-09-04 Feliks Nüske , Lorenzo Boninsegna , Cecilia Clementi