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Trustworthy ML systems should not only return accurate predictions, but also a reliable representation of their uncertainty. Bayesian methods are commonly used to quantify both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, but alternative…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-09-11 Mira Jürgens , Nis Meinert , Viktor Bengs , Eyke Hüllermeier , Willem Waegeman

Deep neural networks are powerful tools to detect hidden patterns in data and leverage them to make predictions, but they are not designed to understand uncertainty and estimate reliable probabilities. In particular, they tend to be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-10 Bat-Sheva Einbinder , Yaniv Romano , Matteo Sesia , Yanfei Zhou

Machine learning has achieved remarkable successes, yet its deployment in safety-critical domains remains hindered by an inherent inability to manage uncertainty, resulting in overconfident and unreliable predictions when models encounter…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal

Traversing terrain with good traction is crucial for achieving fast off-road navigation. Instead of manually designing costs based on terrain features, existing methods learn terrain properties directly from data via self-supervision to…

Automated detection of software vulnerabilities is a fundamental problem in software security. Existing program analysis techniques either suffer from high false positives or false negatives. Recent progress in Deep Learning (DL) has…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2020-09-16 Saikat Chakraborty , Rahul Krishna , Yangruibo Ding , Baishakhi Ray

Fine-tuned large language models (LLMs) often exhibit overconfidence, particularly when trained on small datasets, resulting in poor calibration and inaccurate uncertainty estimates. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL), an uncertainty-aware…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Yawei Li , David Rügamer , Bernd Bischl , Mina Rezaei

Reliably assessing model confidence in deep learning and predicting errors likely to be made are key elements in providing safety for model deployment, in particular for applications with dire consequences. In this paper, it is first shown…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-21 Theodoros Tsiligkaridis

Machine Learning has invariantly found its way into various Credit Risk applications. Due to the intrinsic nature of Credit Risk, quantifying the uncertainty of the predicted risk metrics is essential, and applying uncertainty-aware deep…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-12-12 Ashish Dhiman

Uncertainty estimation is a key factor that makes deep learning reliable in practical applications. Recently proposed evidential neural networks explicitly account for different uncertainties by treating the network's outputs as evidence to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-03 Danruo Deng , Guangyong Chen , Yang Yu , Furui Liu , Pheng-Ann Heng

Risk is traditionally described as the expected likelihood of an undesirable outcome, such as collisions for autonomous vehicles. Accurately predicting risk or potentially risky situations is critical for the safe operation of autonomous…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-06-10 Kasra Mokhtari , Alan R. Wagner

Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs) represent a significant challenge in cybersecurity due to their prolonged, multi-stage nature and the sophistication of their operators. Traditional detection systems typically focus on identifying…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2025-08-04 Alessandro Gaudenzi , Lorenzo Nodari , Lance Kaplan , Alessandra Russo , Murat Sensoy , Federico Cerutti

Although an ever-growing number of applications employ deep learning based systems for prediction, decision-making, or state estimation, almost no certification processes have been established that would allow such systems to be deployed in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Romeo Valentin

We present a novel statistical approach to incorporating uncertainty awareness in model-free distributional reinforcement learning involving quantile regression-based deep Q networks. The proposed algorithm, $\textit{Calibrated Evidential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Alex Christopher Stutts , Danilo Erricolo , Theja Tulabandhula , Amit Ranjan Trivedi

Usually considered as a classification problem, entity resolution (ER) can be very challenging on real data due to the prevalence of dirty values. The state-of-the-art solutions for ER were built on a variety of learning models (most…

Databases · Computer Science 2019-06-17 Boyi Hou , Qun Chen , Yanyan Wang , Youcef Nafa , Zhanhuai Li

We propose a novel framework to solve risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) problems where the agent optimises time-consistent dynamic spectral risk measures. Based on the notion of conditional elicitability, our methodology constructs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-02 Anthony Coache , Sebastian Jaimungal , Álvaro Cartea

We develop a framework for interacting with uncertain environments in reinforcement learning (RL) by leveraging preferences in the form of utility functions. We claim that there is value in considering different risk measures during…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Hannes Eriksson , Christos Dimitrakakis

Deep learning (DL) techniques are on the rise in the software engineering research community. More and more approaches have been developed on top of DL models, also due to the unprecedented amount of software-related data that can be used…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2021-03-23 Alejandro Mazuera-Rozo , Anamaria Mojica-Hanke , Mario Linares-Vásquez , Gabriele Bavota

Automatic classification of diabetic retinopathy from retinal images has been widely studied using deep neural networks with impressive results. However, there is a clinical need for estimation of the uncertainty in the classifications, a…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-02-03 Joel Jaskari , Jaakko Sahlsten , Theodoros Damoulas , Jeremias Knoblauch , Simo Särkkä , Leo Kärkkäinen , Kustaa Hietala , Kimmo Kaski

There is a significant need for principled uncertainty reasoning in machine learning systems as they are increasingly deployed in safety-critical domains. A new approach with uncertainty-aware regression-based neural networks (NNs), based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-21 Nis Meinert , Jakob Gawlikowski , Alexander Lavin

Extensive research on formal verification of machine learning (ML) systems indicates that learning from data alone often fails to capture underlying background knowledge. A variety of verifiers have been developed to ensure that a…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2023-11-17 Thomas Flinkow , Barak A. Pearlmutter , Rosemary Monahan