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Treatment effect estimation is of high-importance for both researchers and practitioners across many scientific and industrial domains. The abundance of observational data makes them increasingly used by researchers for the estimation of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-22 Niki Kiriakidou , Christos Diou

Variational inference (VI) is widely used for approximate inference in Bayesian machine learning. In addition to this practical success, generalization bounds for variational inference and related algorithms have been developed, mostly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-19 Yadi Wei , Roni Khardon

Assured AI in unrestricted settings is a critical problem. Our framework addresses AI assurance challenges lying at the intersection of domain adaptation, fairness, and counterfactuals analysis, operating via the discovery and intervention…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-19 William Paul , Philippe Burlina

For sensitive problems, such as medical imaging or fraud detection, Neural Network (NN) adoption has been slow due to concerns about their reliability, leading to a number of algorithms for explaining their decisions. NNs have also been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-06 Walt Woods , Jack Chen , Christof Teuscher

To understand how the interconnected and interdependent world of the twenty-first century operates and make model-based predictions, joint probability models for networks and interdependent outcomes are needed. We propose a comprehensive…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-03 Cornelius Fritz , Michael Schweinberger , Subhankar Bhadra , David R. Hunter

In many scientific domains, including experimentation, researchers rely on measurements of proxy outcomes to achieve faster and more frequent reads, especially when the primary outcome of interest is challenging to measure directly. While…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-08 Steven Wilkins-Reeves , Alexandra N. M. Darmon , Deeksha Sinha

Sequential latent-variable models with subject-specific random effects provide a flexible framework for modeling temporally structured data with both local latent dynamics and stable between-subject heterogeneity. In such models,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Xingche Guo

Consider the problem of estimating average treatment effects when a large number of covariates are used to adjust for possible confounding through outcome regression and propensity score models. The conventional approach of model building…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-31 Zhiqiang Tan

Interference occurs when the potential outcomes of a unit depend on the treatment of others. Interference can be highly heterogeneous, where treating certain individuals might have a larger effect on the population's overall outcome. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-11 Samantha G Dean , Georgia Papadogeorgou , Laura Forastiere

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently regained a significant amount of attention in the deep learning community due to the development of scalable approximate Bayesian inference techniques. There are several advantages of using a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-02 Aliaksandr Hubin , Geir Storvik

Estimating causal effects from high-dimensional, structured exposures is a fundamental challenge in modern applications ranging from neuroscience and finance to environmental science. While the literature has addressed high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-29 Samhita Pal , Dhrubajyoti Ghosh

This paper studies inference in randomized controlled trials with covariate-adaptive randomization when there are multiple treatments. More specifically, we study inference about the average effect of one or more treatments relative to…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-01-21 Federico A. Bugni , Ivan A. Canay , Azeem M. Shaikh

AI models are often evaluated based on their ability to predict the outcome of interest. However, in many AI for social impact applications, the presence of an intervention that affects the outcome can bias the evaluation. Randomized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Winston Chen , Michael W. Sjoding , Jenna Wiens

Amortized variational inference is an often employed framework in simulation-based inference that produces a posterior approximation that can be rapidly computed given any new observation. Unfortunately, there are few guarantees about the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-26 Yash Patel , Declan McNamara , Jackson Loper , Jeffrey Regier , Ambuj Tewari

We study the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) under sequentially adaptive treatment assignment mechanisms. In contrast to classical completely randomized designs, we consider a setting in which the probability of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Saikat Sengupta , Koulik Khamaru , Suvrojit Ghosh , Tirthankar Dasgupta

This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-04 Donald W. K. Andrews , Ming Li

Given the ubiquity of modularity in biological systems, module-level regulation analysis is vital for understanding biological systems across various levels and their dynamics. Current statistical analysis on biological modules…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-24 Yaoming Zhen , Jin-Hong Du

While generalizing well over natural inputs, neural networks are vulnerable to adversarial inputs. Existing defenses against adversarial inputs have largely been detached from the real world. These defenses also come at a cost to accuracy.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-05 Varun Chandrasekaran , Brian Tang , Nicolas Papernot , Kassem Fawaz , Somesh Jha , Xi Wu

A/B tests are often required to be conducted on subjects that might have social connections. For e.g., experiments on social media, or medical and social interventions to control the spread of an epidemic. In such settings, the SUTVA…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Shiv Shankar , Ritwik Sinha , Yash Chandak , Saayan Mitra , Madalina Fiterau

In many scenarios, such as the evaluation of place-based policies, potential outcomes are not only dependent upon the unit's own treatment but also its neighbors' treatment. Despite this, "difference-in-differences" (DID) type estimators…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-30 Ruonan Xu
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