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We investigate the performance and sampling variability of estimated forecast combinations, with particular attention given to the combination of forecast distributions. Unknown parameters in the forecast combination are optimized according…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Ryan Zischke , Gael M. Martin , David T. Frazier , D. S. Poskitt

This work studies the properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of a non-linear model with Gaussian errors and multidimensional parameter. The observations are collected in a two-stage experimental design and are dependent since…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-01 Nancy Flournoy , Caterina May , Chiara Tommasi

Generalizing treatment effects from a randomized trial to a target population requires the assumption that potential outcome distributions are invariant across populations after conditioning on observed covariates. This assumption fails…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-16 Amir Asiaee , Samhita Pal , Cole Beck , Jared D. Huling

Clustering is a central approach for unsupervised learning. After clustering is applied, the most fundamental analysis is to quantitatively compare clusterings. Such comparisons are crucial for the evaluation of clustering methods as well…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-03 Alexander J Gates , Yong-Yeol Ahn

In numerous instances, the generalized exponential distribution can be used as an alternative to the most widely used non-regular family of distributions: Weibull, gamma, lognormal with three-parameters when analyzing lifetime or any skewed…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-03 Kiran Prajapat , Sharmishtha Mitra , Debasis Kundu

In this article, we investigate the robust optimal design problem for the prediction of response when the fitted regression models are only approximately specified, and observations might be missing completely at random. The intuitive idea…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-19 Rui Hu , Ion Bica , Zhichun Zhai

We consider a three-level meta-analysis of standardized mean differences. The standard method of estimation uses inverse-variance weights and REML/PL estimation of variance components for the random effects. We introduce new moment-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Elena Kulinskaya , David C. Hoaglin

This work proposes a statistical model for crossover trials with multiple skewed responses measured in each period. A 3 $\times$ 3 crossover trial data where different drug doses were administered to subjects with a history of seasonal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-09 Savita Pareek , Kalyan Das , Siuli Mukhopadhyay

In a statistical analysis in Particle Physics, nuisance parameters can be introduced to take into account various types of systematic uncertainties. The best estimate of such a parameter is often modeled as a Gaussian distributed variable…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-02-25 Glen Cowan

The coefficient of determination is well defined for linear models and its extension is long wanted for mixed-effects models. We revisit its extension to define measures for proportions of variation explained by the whole model, fixed…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-04 Dabao Zhang

Maximum likelihood or restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimates of the parameters in linear mixed-effects models can be determined using the lmer function in the lme4 package for R. As for most model-fitting functions in R, the model…

Computation · Statistics 2014-06-24 Douglas Bates , Martin Mächler , Ben Bolker , Steve Walker

Decisions are often based on imprecise, uncertain or vague information. Likewise, the consequences of an action are often equally unpredictable, thus putting the decision maker into a twofold jeopardy. Assuming that the effects of an action…

General Economics · Economics 2022-05-03 Stefan Rass , Sandra König , Stefan Schauer

A growing statistical literature focuses on causal inference in the context of experiments where the target of inference is the average treatment effect in a finite population and random assignment determines which subjects are allocated to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-04 Jonas M. Mikhaeil , Donald P. Green

We propose in this paper a random intercept Poisson model in which the random effect distribution is assumed to follow a generalized log-gamma (GLG) distribution. We derive the first two moments for the marginal distribution as well as the…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-05-12 Lizandra C. Fabio , Gilberto A. Paula , Mario de Castro

Maximum likelihood estimation in logistic regression with mixed effects is known to often result in estimates on the boundary of the parameter space. Such estimates, which include infinite values for fixed effects and singular or infinite…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-03 Philipp Sterzinger , Ioannis Kosmidis

Across many scientific disciplines, multiple observations are collected from the same experimental units, and in modern datasets these observations often arise as non-Euclidean random objects. In such settings, the incorporation of random…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Marcos Matabuena , Mateo Cámara

We propose a semiparametric method to estimate the average treatment effect under the assumption of unconfoundedness given observational data. Our estimation method alleviates misspecification issues of the propensity score function by…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-16 Difang Huang , Jiti Gao , Tatsushi Oka

We consider the question of sequential prediction under the log-loss in terms of cumulative regret. Namely, given a hypothesis class of distributions, learner sequentially predicts the (distribution of the) next letter in sequence and its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-16 Meir Feder , Yury Polyanskiy

Under interference, the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. Such interference patterns between units are typically represented by a network. Correctly specifying this network requires identifying which units can…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-23 Bar Weinstein , Daniel Nevo

Marginal structural models are a popular tool for investigating the effects of time-varying treatments, but they require an assumption of no unobserved confounders between the treatment and outcome. With observational data, this assumption…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-10 Matthew Blackwell , Soichiro Yamauchi