Related papers: Warfare Ignited Price Contagion Dynamics in Early …
The complex interplay between famine, warfare, and climate constitutes a multifaceted and context-dependent relationship that has profoundly influenced human history, particularly in early modern Europe. This study advances the literature…
This paper proposes an empirical test of financial contagion in European equity markets during the tumultuous period of 2008-2011. Our analysis shows that traditional GARCH and Gaussian stochastic-volatility models are unable to explain two…
Market trade-routes can support infectious-disease transmission, impacting biological populations and even disrupting causal trade. Epidemiological models increasingly account for reductions in infectious contact, such as risk-aversion…
We develop a mathematical framework to study the economic impact of infectious diseases by integrating epidemiological dynamics with a kinetic model of wealth exchange. The multi-agent description leads to study the evolution over time of a…
Financial contagion has been widely recognized as a fundamental risk to the financial system. Particularly potent is price-mediated contagion, wherein forced liquidations by firms depress asset prices and propagate financial stress,…
Price-mediated contagion occurs when a positive feedback loop develops following a drop in asset prices which forces banks and other financial institutions to sell their holdings. Prior studies of such events fix the level of market…
We study how the phenomenon of contagion can take place in the network of the world's stock exchanges due to the behavioral trait "blindeness to small changes". On large scale individual, the delay in the collective response may…
We analyse the importance of international relations between countries on the financial stability. The contagion effect in the network is tested by implementing an epidemiological model, comprising a number of European countries and using…
The increasing integration of world economies, which organize in complex multilayer networks of interactions, is one of the critical factors for the global propagation of economic crises. We adopt the network science approach to quantify…
In the first part of this paper (Sections 1-4), we study a standard exchange economy model with Cobb-Douglas type consumers and give a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of an odd period cycle in the Walras-Samuelson…
How does dynamic price information flow among Northern European electricity spot prices and prices of major electricity generation fuel sources? We use time series models combined with new advances in causal inference to answer these…
We examine how monetary shocks spread throughout an economic model characterized by sticky prices and general equilibrium, where the pricing strategies of firms are interlinked, fostering a mutually beneficial relationship. In this dynamic…
How do severe shocks such as war alter the economy? We study how a country's production network is affected by a devastating but localized conflict. Using unique transaction-level data on Ukrainian railway shipments around the start of the…
Economic shocks due to Covid-19 were exceptional in their severity, suddenness and heterogeneity across industries. To study the upstream and downstream propagation of these industry-specific demand and supply shocks, we build a dynamic…
How are economies in a modern age impacted by epidemics? In what ways is economic life disrupted? How can pandemics be modeled? What can be done to mitigate and manage the danger? Does the threat of pandemics increase or decrease in the…
The study examines the return connectedness between climate policy uncertainty (CPU), clean energy, fossil energy, and food markets. Using the time-domain method of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and frequency-domain methods of Barun{\'{i}}k and…
Yet often neglected, dynamical interdependencies between concomitant contagion processes can alter their intrinsic equilibria and bifurcations. A particular case of interest for disease control is the emergence of explosive transitions in…
Europe's contemporary political landscape has been shaped by massive shifts in recent decades caused by geopolitical upheavals such as Brexit and now, COVID-19. The way in which policy makers respond to the current pandemic could have large…
The causes and implications of the regional variations in the spread of the incipient agriculture in Europe remain poorly understood. We apply population dynamics models to study the dispersal of the Neolithic in Europe from a localized…
This paper investigates how geopolitical conflict reshapes trade patterns, focusing on the economic consequences of the Russo-Ukrainian war on European and global trade flows. War is conceptualized as a shock that increases bilateral trade…