Related papers: Improved order selection method for hidden Markov …
Understanding behavioural responses to disturbances is vital for wildlife conservation. For example, in the Arctic, the decrease in sea ice has opened new shipping routes, increasing the need for impact assessments that quantify the…
With the symbolic framework of Probability Bracket Notation (PBN), the Markov Sequence Projector (MSP) is introduced to expand the evolution formula of Homogeneous Markov Chains (HMCs). The well-known weather example, a Visible Markov Model…
Step-selection models are widely used to study animals' fine-scale habitat selection based on movement data. Resource preferences and movement patterns, however, can depend on the animal's unobserved behavioural states, such as resting or…
Factorial hidden Markov models (FHMMs) are powerful tools of modeling sequential data. Learning FHMMs yields a challenging simultaneous model selection issue, i.e., selecting the number of multiple Markov chains and the dimensionality of…
Analysis and recognition of driving styles are profoundly important to intelligent transportation and vehicle calibration. This paper presents a novel driving style analysis framework using the primitive driving patterns learned from…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are one of the most widely used statistical methods for analyzing sequence data. However, the reporting of output from HMMs has largely been restricted to the presentation of the most-probable (MAP) hidden state…
In this paper, we propose a general hidden state random walk model to describe the movement of an animal that takes into account movement taxis with respect to features of the environment. A circular-linear process models the direction and…
We introduce the Reduced-Rank Hidden Markov Model (RR-HMM), a generalization of HMMs that can model smooth state evolution as in Linear Dynamical Systems (LDSs) as well as non-log-concave predictive distributions as in…
We compare different selection criteria to choose the number of latent states of a multivariate latent Markov model for longitudinal data. This model is based on an underlying Markov chain to represent the evolution of a latent…
The hidden Markov model (HMM) has been a workhorse of single molecule data analysis and is now commonly used as a standalone tool in time series analysis or in conjunction with other analyses methods such as tracking. Here we provide a…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide useful tools for modeling dynamical systems. They are particularly useful for representing the topology of environments such as road networks…
We consider the problem of estimating parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with discrete-time observations that are either completely or partially observed. The transition density between two observations is generally…
Spurred in part by the ever-growing number of sensors and web-based methods of collecting data, the use of Intensive Longitudinal Data (ILD) is becoming more common in the social and behavioural sciences. The ILD collected in this field are…
In this article we suggest a new statistical approach considering survival heterogeneity as a breakpoint model in an ordered sequence of time to event variables. The survival responses need to be ordered according to a numerical covariate.…
Discrete-time hidden Markov models (HMMs) have become an immensely popular tool for inferring latent animal behaviors from telemetry data. Here we introduce an open-source R package, momentuHMM, that addresses many of the deficiencies in…
Particle Marginal Metropolis-Hastings (PMMH) is a general approach to Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable, but can be estimated unbiasedly. Our article develops an efficient PMMH method that scales up better to higher…
A Hidden Markov Model for intraday momentum trading is presented which specifies a latent momentum state responsible for generating the observed securities' noisy returns. Existing momentum trading models suffer from time-lagging caused by…
The authors present a cyber-physical systems study on the estimation of driver behavior in autonomous vehicles and vehicle safety systems. Extending upon previous work, the approach described is suitable for the long term estimation and…
To analyze whole-genome genetic data inherited in families, the likelihood is typically obtained from a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) having a state space of 2^n hidden states where n is the number of meioses or edges in the pedigree. There…
Non-linear state space models are a widely-used class of models for biological, economic, and physical processes. Fitting these models to observed data is a difficult inference problem that has no straightforward solution. We take a…