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Inference-time scaling has emerged as a powerful technique for enhancing the reasoning performance of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, existing approaches often rely on heuristic strategies for parallel sampling, lacking a principled…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-22 Youkang Wang , Jian Wang , Rubing Chen , Xiao-Yong Wei

Conformal inference is a popular tool for constructing prediction intervals (PI). We consider here the scenario of post-selection/selective conformal inference, that is PIs are reported only for individuals selected from an unlabeled test…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-13 Yajie Bao , Yuyang Huo , Haojie Ren , Changliang Zou

Conformal prediction (CP) quantifies the uncertainty of machine learning models by constructing sets of plausible outputs. These sets are constructed by leveraging a so-called conformity score, a quantity computed using the input point of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-07 Michal Klein , Louis Bethune , Eugene Ndiaye , Marco Cuturi

Prediction models for clinical outcomes may be developed using a source dataset and additionally applied to new settings. Towards model external validation and model updating in the new setting, one procedure is model modification learning…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-01 W Katherine Tan , Patrick J Heagerty

The paper investigates data-driven output-feedback predictive control of linear systems subject to stochastic disturbances. The scheme relies on the recursive solution of a suitable data-driven reformulation of a stochastic Optimal Control…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-12-16 Guanru Pan , Ruchuan Ou , Timm Faulwasser

Conformalized multiple testing offers a model-free way to control predictive uncertainty in decision-making. Existing methods typically use only part of the available data to build score functions tailored to specific settings. We propose a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-22 Yuyang Huo , Xiaoyang Wu , Changliang Zou , Haojie Ren

Algorithms that ensure reproducible findings from large-scale, high-dimensional data are pivotal in numerous signal processing applications. In recent years, multivariate false discovery rate (FDR) controlling methods have emerged,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-31 Jasin Machkour , Michael Muma , Daniel P. Palomar

The effective utilization of structural information in data while ensuring statistical validity poses a significant challenge in false discovery rate (FDR) analyses. Conformal inference provides rigorous theory for grounding complex machine…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-18 Zinan Zhao , Wenguang Sun

Simultaneously performing variable selection and inference in high-dimensional regression models is an open challenge in statistics and machine learning. The increasing availability of vast amounts of variables requires the adoption of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-08 Marco Molinari , Magne Thoresen

The decision to incorporate cross-validation into validation processes of mathematical models raises an immediate question - how should one partition the data into calibration and validation sets? We answer this question systematically: we…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2011-08-31 Rebecca Morrison , Corey Bryant , Gabriel Terejanu , Kenji Miki , Serge Prudhomme

Ordinal classification has been widely applied in many high-stakes applications, e.g., medical imaging and diagnosis, where reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for decision making. Conformal prediction (CP) is a general UQ…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Zijian Zhang , Xinyu Chen , Yuanjie Shi , Liyuan Lillian Ma , Zifan Xu , Yan Yan

In a standard classification framework a set of trustworthy learning data are employed to build a decision rule, with the final aim of classifying unlabelled units belonging to the test set. Therefore, unreliable labelled observations,…

Applications · Statistics 2019-11-20 Andrea Cappozzo , Francesca Greselin , Thomas Brendan Murphy

Complete reliance on the fitted model in response surface experiments is risky and relaxing this assumption, whether out of necessity or intentionally, requires an experimenter to account for multiple conflicting objectives. This work…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-16 Olga Egorova , Steven G. Gilmour

Selecting relevant features associated with a given response variable is an important issue in many scientific fields. Quantifying quality and uncertainty of a selection result via false discovery rate (FDR) control has been of recent…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-17 Chenguang Dai , Buyu Lin , Xin Xing , Jun S. Liu

Conformal prediction (CP) constructs uncertainty sets for model outputs with finite-sample coverage guarantees. A candidate output is included in the prediction set if its non-conformity score is not considered extreme relative to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-20 Eugene Ndiaye

With the rising number of machine learning competitions, the world has witnessed an exciting race for the best algorithms. However, the involved data selection process may fundamentally suffer from evidence ambiguity and concept drift…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-15 Hoang D. Nguyen , Xuan-Son Vu , Quoc-Tuan Truong , Duc-Trong Le

Controlling the False Discovery Rate (FDR) in a variable selection procedure is critical for reproducible discoveries, and it has been extensively studied in sparse linear models. However, it remains largely open in scenarios where the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-16 Yang Cao , Xinwei Sun , Yuan Yao

Addressing the simultaneous identification of contributory variables while controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) in high-dimensional data is a crucial statistical challenge. In this paper, we propose a novel model-free variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Yixin Han , Xu Guo , Changliang Zou

Model explainability is crucial for human users to be able to interpret how a proposed classifier assigns labels to data based on its feature values. We study generalized linear models constructed using sets of feature value rules, which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-06 Sanjeeb Dash , Soumyadip Ghosh , Joao Goncalves , Mark S. Squillante

Conformal prediction builds marginally valid prediction intervals that cover the unknown outcome of a randomly drawn test point with a prescribed probability. However, in practice, data-driven methods are often used to identify specific…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-21 Ying Jin , Zhimei Ren