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We propose a Bayesian hidden Markov model for analyzing time series and sequential data where a special structure of the transition probability matrix is embedded to model explicit-duration semi-Markovian dynamics. Our formulation allows…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-23 Beniamino Hadj-Amar , Jack Jewson , Mark Fiecas

Bayesian variable selection is a powerful tool for data analysis, as it offers a principled method for variable selection that accounts for prior information and uncertainty. However, wider adoption of Bayesian variable selection has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-06 Martin Jankowiak

Summary statistics of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) teach causal relationship between millions of genetic markers and tens and thousands of phenotypes. However, underlying biological mechanisms are yet to be elucidated. We can…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-25 Yongjin Park , Abhishek Sarkar , Khoi Nguyen , Manolis Kellis

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-10 Anshuk Uppal , Kristoffer Stensbo-Smidt , Wouter Boomsma , Jes Frellsen

Not accounting for competing events in survival analysis can lead to biased estimates, as individuals who die from other causes do not have the opportunity to develop the event of interest. Formal definitions and considerations for causal…

Variable selection is crucial in high-dimensional omics-based analyses, since it is biologically reasonable to assume only a subset of non-noisy features contributes to the data structures. However, the task is particularly hard in an…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-22 Emilie Eliseussen , Thomas Fleischer , Valeria Vitelli

This paper provides robust estimators and efficient inference of causal effects involving multiple interacting mediators. Most existing works either impose a linear model assumption among the mediators or are restricted to handle…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-12 Haoyu Wei , Hengrui Cai , Chengchun Shi , Rui Song

High-dimensional linear classifiers, such as the support vector machine (SVM) and distance weighted discrimination (DWD), are commonly used in biomedical research to distinguish groups of subjects based on a large number of features.…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-20 Tianmeng Lyu , Eric F. Lock , Lynn E. Eberly

We propose a novel approach to the estimation of multiple Graphical Models to analyse temporal patterns of association among a set of metabolites over different groups of patients. Our motivating application is the Southall And Brent…

Our Bayesian approach to Mendelian Randomisation uses multiple instruments to assess the putative causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. The approach is robust to violations of the (untestable) Exclusion Restriction condition, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-01 Carlo Berzuini , Hui Guo , Stephen Burgess , Luisa Bernardinelli

Metabolic syndrome is a complex clinical condition characterized by the simultaneous presence of multiple metabolic risk factors and represents a major public health concern. The syndrome develops silently and may remain undiagnosed for…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-27 Simone Colombara , Ilenia Epifani , Alessandra Guglielmi , Ettore Lanzarone

Environmental health studies are increasingly measuring endogenous omics data ($\boldsymbol{M}$) to study intermediary biological pathways by which an exogenous exposure ($\boldsymbol{A}$) affects a health outcome ($\boldsymbol{Y}$), given…

Bayesian nonparametric methods are a popular choice for analysing survival data due to their ability to flexibly model the distribution of survival times. These methods typically employ a nonparametric prior on the survival function that is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-22 Edwin Fong , Brieuc Lehmann

Epidemic models are invaluable tools to understand and implement strategies to control the spread of infectious diseases, as well as to inform public health policies and resource allocation. However, current modeling approaches have…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Caitlin Ward , Rob Deardon , Alexandra M. Schmidt

We propose a causal predictive framework for estimating risk under preventative interventions. The Unexposed Mediator Model maintains mediators that are also predictors at their unexposed level, removing double counting of intervention…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Matthew Sperrin , Bowen Jiang , Joyce Huang , Niels Peek , Alexander Pate

Dynamic prediction of causal effects under different treatment regimes conditional on an individual's characteristics and longitudinal history is an essential problem in precision medicine. This is challenging in practice because outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-07 Yizhen Xu , Jisoo Kim , Laura K. Hummers , Ami A. Shah , Scott Zeger

The increase in the use of mobile and wearable devices now allows dense assessment of mediating processes over time. For example, a pharmacological intervention may have an effect on smoking cessation via reductions in momentary withdrawal…

Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a leading cause of morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs, impacting $>$23 million individuals worldwide. Large electronic health records data provide an opportunity to improve clinical management of…

A plethora of networks is being collected in a growing number of fields, including disease transmission, international relations, social interactions, and others. As data streams continue to grow, the complexity associated with these highly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-11 Daniele Durante , Nabanita Mukherjee , Rebecca C. Steorts

Estimating the marginal and joint densities of the long-term average intakes of different dietary components is an important problem in nutritional epidemiology. Since these variables cannot be directly measured, data are usually collected…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-18 Abhra Sarkar