English
Related papers

Related papers: Probabilistic Forecasting of Radiation Exposure fo…

200 papers

The multi-wavelength detection of GW170817 has inaugurated multi-messenger astronomy. The next step consists in interpreting observations coming from population of gravitational wave sources. We introduce saprEMo, a tool aimed at predicting…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-12-24 Serena Vinciguerra , Marica Branchesi , Riccardo Ciolfi , Ilya Mandel , Coenraad Neijssel , Giulia Stratta

The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) mission has laid a foundation for advancing real-time space weather forecasting by enabling the evaluation of heliospheric imager (HI) data for predicting coronal mass ejection (CME)…

Space weather, driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), poses significant risks to technological systems. Accurately forecasting these events and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere remains a challenge because of the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-01-27 Sabrina Guastavino , Edoardo Legnaro , Anna Maria Massone , Michele Piana

Solar energetic particles are mainly protons and originate from the Sun during solar flares or coronal shock waves. Forecasting the Solar Energetic Protons (SEP) flux is critical for several operational sectors, such as communication and…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-10-19 Mohamed Nedal , Kamen Kozarev , Nestor Arsenov , Peijin Zhang

The evolution of space technology in recent years, fueled by advancements in computing such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), has profoundly transformed our capacity to explore the cosmos. Missions like the James…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2025-10-13 Vasuda Trehan , Kevin H. Knuth , M. J. Way

Positioned at geostationary orbit (GEO) ~36,000 km above Earth, NOAA's GOES series has recorded real-time energetic proton flux measurements crucial for space weather monitoring for over three decades. Although machine learning models have…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-11-12 Aatiya Ali , Viacheslav Sadykov

We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI…

Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets…

Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) are an important component of Space Weather, including radiation hazard to humans and electronic equipment, and the ionisation of the Earth's atmosphere. We review the key observations of SEPs, our current…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2017-05-23 Karl-Ludwig Klein , Silvia Dalla

Solar flares, as one of the most prominent manifestations of solar activity, have a profound impact on both the Earth's space environment and human activities. As a result, accurate solar flare prediction has emerged as a central topic in…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-03-31 Mingfu Shao , Suo Liu , Haiqing Xu , Peng Jia , Hui Wang , Liyue Tong , Yang Bai , Chen Yang , Yuyang Li , Nan Li , Jiaben Lin

This paper proposes to use a rather new modelling approach in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Neural Network (NN) models are combined to form a model…

Applications · Statistics 2012-03-27 Philippe Lauret , Auline Rodler , Marc Muselli , Mathieu David , Hadja Diagne , Cyril Voyant

Ahead-of-time forecasting of the output power of power plants is essential for the stability of the electricity grid and ensuring uninterrupted service. However, forecasting renewable energy sources is difficult due to the chaotic behavior…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-10-27 Anas Al-lahham , Obaidah Theeb , Khaled Elalem , Tariq A. Alshawi , Saleh A. Alshebeili

We present an advance towards accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over 2/3 of a solar…

The space radiation environment is a complex combination of fast-moving ions derived from all atomic species found in the periodic table. The energy spectrum of each ion species varies widely but is prominently in the range of 400 - 600…

Astronauts participating in deep-space exploration missions will be exposed to significantly greater amounts of radiation than is typically encountered on Earth or in low Earth orbit (LEO), which poses significant risks to crew health and…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-09-12 Joseph L. Hesse-Withbroe , Katya S. Arquilla

We introduce a new multivariate data set that utilizes multiple spacecraft collecting in-situ and remote sensing heliospheric measurements shown to be linked to physical processes responsible for generating solar energetic particles (SEPs).…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-10-30 Kimberly Moreland , Maher Dayeh , Hazel M. Bain , Subhamoy Chatterjee , Andres Munoz-Jaramillo , Samuel Hart

The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) and its heliospheric imagers (HI) have provided us the possibility to enhance our understanding of the interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). HI-based methods are…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-11-14 T. Amerstorfer , C. Möstl , P. Hess , M. Temmer , M. L. Mays , M. Reiss , P. Lowrance , Ph. -A. Bourdin

Space weather forecasting is critical for mitigating radiation risks in space exploration and protecting Earth-based technologies from geomagnetic disturbances. This paper presents the development of a Machine Learning (ML)- ready data…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-02-13 Maher A Dayeh , Michael J Starkey , Subhamoy Chatterjee , Heather Elliott , Samuel Hart , Kimberly Moreland

The application of machine learning to the study of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their impacts on Earth has seen significant growth recently. Understanding and forecasting CME geoeffectiveness is crucial for protecting infrastructure…

We present a new empirical model to predict solar energetic particle (SEP) event-integrated and peak intensity spectra between 10 and 130 MeV at 1 AU, based on multi-point spacecraft measurements from the Solar TErrestrial RElations…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-02-24 Alessandro Bruno , Ian G. Richardson