Related papers: Spatio-Temporal Conformal Prediction for Power Out…
Accurate forecasting is critical for reliable power grid operations, particularly as the share of renewable generation, such as wind and solar, continues to grow. Given the inherent uncertainty and variability in renewable generation,…
We describe some bulk statistics of historical initial line outages and the implications for forming contingency lists and understanding which initial outages are likely to lead to further cascading. We use historical outage data to…
Accurate household electrical energy demand prediction is essential for effectively managing sustainable Energy Communities. Integrated with the Energy Management System, these communities aim to optimise operational costs. However, most…
Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack…
Systems for the generation and distribution of electrical power represents critical infrastructure and, when extreme weather events disrupt such systems, this imposes substantial costs on consumers. These costs can be conceptualized as…
Conformal prediction has been explored as a general and efficient way to provide uncertainty quantification for time series. However, current methods struggle to handle time series data with change points - sudden shifts in the underlying…
We consider power line outages in the transmission system of the power grid, and specifically those caused by a natural disaster or a large scale physical attack. In the transmission system, an outage of a line may lead to overload on other…
We introduce a neural network conformal prediction method for time series that enhances adaptivity in non-stationary environments. Our approach acts as a neural controller designed to achieve desired target coverage, leveraging auxiliary…
The future energy system will largely depend on volatile renewable energy sources and temperature-dependent loads, which makes the weather a central influencing factor. This article presents a novel approach for simulating weather scenarios…
Unprecedented winter storms that hit across Texas in February 2021 have caused at least 69 deaths and 4.5 million customer interruptions due to the wide-ranging generation capacity outage and record-breaking electricity demand. While much…
El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits significant impacts on the frequency of extreme weather events and its socio-economic implications prevail on a global scale. However, a fundamental gap still exists in understanding the…
When there is a fault, the protection system automatically removes one or more transmission lines on a fast time scale of less than one minute. The outaged lines form a pattern in the transmission network. We extract these patterns from…
This paper designs a statistical quantification towards the intermittent power uncertainty in power systems. A negative-exponential forecast uncertainty function is constructed to represent the relationship between the statistics of…
Conformal prediction offers a practical framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification, providing finite-sample coverage guarantees under relatively mild assumptions on data exchangeability. However, these assumptions cease to…
Power system outages expose market participants to significant financial risk unless promptly detected and hedged. We develop an outage identification method from public market signals grounded in the parametric quickest change detection…
Reliable multi-horizon traffic forecasting is challenging because network conditions are stochastic, incident disruptions are intermittent, and effective spatial dependencies vary across time-of-day patterns. This study is conducted on the…
Extreme weather is straining electricity systems, exposing the limitations of reactive responses, and prompting the need for proactive resilience planning. Most existing approaches to enhance electricity system resilience employ simplified…
We discuss ways to measure duration in a power transmission system resilience event by modeling outage and restore processes from utility data. We introduce novel Poisson process models that describe how resilience events progress and…
Modern grid monitoring equipment enables utilities to collect detailed records of power interruptions. These data are aggregated to compute publicly reported metrics describing high-level characteristics of grid performance. The current…
Overhead distribution lines play a vital role in distributing electricity, however, their freestanding nature makes them vulnerable to extreme weather conditions and resultant disruption of supply. The current UK regulation of power…