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Most machine learning techniques are based upon statistical learning theory, often simplified for the sake of computing speed. This paper is focused on the uncertainty aspect of mathematical modeling in machine learning. Regression analysis…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Valentin Arkov

A key factor in ensuring the accuracy of computer simulations that model physical systems is the proper calibration of their parameters based on real-world observations or experimental data. Inevitably, uncertainties arise, and Bayesian…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-25 Daniel Andrés Arcones , Martin Weiser , Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis , Jörg F. Unger

Bayesian inference for neural networks, or Bayesian deep learning, has the potential to provide well-calibrated predictions with quantified uncertainty and robustness. However, the main hurdle for Bayesian deep learning is its computational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-07 Sanket Jantre , Nathan M. Urban , Xiaoning Qian , Byung-Jun Yoon

We introduce implicit Bayesian neural networks, a simple and scalable approach for uncertainty representation in deep learning. Standard Bayesian approach to deep learning requires the impractical inference of the posterior distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-27 Trung Trinh , Samuel Kaski , Markus Heinonen

Deep learning motivated by convolutional neural networks has been highly successful in a range of medical imaging problems like image classification, image segmentation, image synthesis etc. However for validation and interpretability, not…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-08-19 Abhinav Sagar

Uncertainty quantification is an important and challenging problem in deep learning. Previous methods rely on dropout layers which are not present in modern deep architectures or batch normalization which is sensitive to batch sizes. In…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-07-10 Lukasz Wandzik , Raul Vicente Garcia , Jörg Krüger

Understanding and quantifying uncertainty in black box Neural Networks (NNs) is critical when deployed in real-world settings such as healthcare. Recent works using Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods have shown how a unified predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-29 Utkarsh Sarawgi , Wazeer Zulfikar , Rishab Khincha , Pattie Maes

We present a novel approach for training deep neural networks in a Bayesian way. Classical, i.e. non-Bayesian, deep learning has two major drawbacks both originating from the fact that network parameters are considered to be deterministic.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-11 Konstantin Posch , Jan Steinbrener , Jürgen Pilz

While recent computer vision algorithms achieve impressive performance on many benchmarks, they lack robustness - presented with an image from a different distribution, (e.g. weather or lighting conditions not considered during training),…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-09-28 Sebastian Cygert , Bartłomiej Wróblewski , Karol Woźniak , Radosław Słowiński , Andrzej Czyżewski

Though remarkable progress has been achieved in various vision tasks, deep neural networks still suffer obvious performance degradation when tested in out-of-distribution scenarios. We argue that the feature statistics (mean and standard…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-04-25 Xiaotong Li , Yongxing Dai , Yixiao Ge , Jun Liu , Ying Shan , Ling-Yu Duan

Applications of large language models often involve the generation of free-form responses, in which case uncertainty quantification becomes challenging. This is due to the need to identify task-specific uncertainties (e.g., about the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-21 Ziyu Wang , Chris Holmes

We present a critical survey on the consistency of uncertainty quantification used in deep learning and highlight partial uncertainty coverage and many inconsistencies. We then provide a comprehensive and statistically consistent framework…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-14 Peter Jan van Leeuwen , J. Christine Chiu , C. Kevin Yang

Comparing competing mathematical models of complex natural processes is a shared goal among many branches of science. The Bayesian probabilistic framework offers a principled way to perform model comparison and extract useful metrics for…

Uncertainty estimation is pivotal in machine learning, especially for classification tasks, as it improves the robustness and reliability of models. We introduce a novel `Epistemic Wrapping' methodology aimed at improving uncertainty…

We introduce Bayesian QuickNAT for the automated quality control of whole-brain segmentation on MRI T1 scans. Next to the Bayesian fully convolutional neural network, we also present inherent measures of segmentation uncertainty that allow…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-11-27 Abhijit Guha Roy , Sailesh Conjeti , Nassir Navab , Christian Wachinger

Uncertainty in medical image segmentation tasks, especially inter-rater variability, arising from differences in interpretations and annotations by various experts, presents a significant challenge in achieving consistent and reliable image…

Model inadequacy and measurement uncertainty are two of the most confounding aspects of inference and prediction in quantitative sciences. The process of scientific inference (the inverse problem) and prediction (the forward problem)…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-11-30 Amir Shahmoradi

Though deep learning has achieved advanced performance recently, it remains a challenging task in the field of medical imaging, as obtaining reliable labeled training data is time-consuming and expensive. In this paper, we propose a…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Yixin Wang , Yao Zhang , Jiang Tian , Cheng Zhong , Zhongchao Shi , Yang Zhang , Zhiqiang He

Diffusion models have recently driven significant breakthroughs in generative modeling. While state-of-the-art models produce high-quality samples on average, individual samples can still be low quality. Detecting such samples without human…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-13 Metod Jazbec , Eliot Wong-Toi , Guoxuan Xia , Dan Zhang , Eric Nalisnick , Stephan Mandt

The widespread adoption of machine learning surrogate models has significantly improved the scale and complexity of systems and processes that can be explored accurately and efficiently using atomistic modeling. However, the inherently…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-03-13 Federico Grasselli , Sanggyu Chong , Venkat Kapil , Silvia Bonfanti , Kevin Rossi