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Expert elicitation is an invaluable tool for gaining insights into the degree of clinical knowledge surrounding parameters of interest when designing, or supplementing trial data when analysing, a clinical trial. Elicitation is considered…

Applications · Statistics 2025-08-11 Laura M. Morgan , James M. S. Wason , Kevin J. Wilson , Nina Wilson

Normalizing flows (NFs) have become a prominent method for deep generative models that allow for an analytic probability density estimation and efficient synthesis. However, a flow-based network is considered to be inefficient in parameter…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-26 Sang-gil Lee , Sungwon Kim , Sungroh Yoon

A statistical method for the elicitation of priors in Bayesian generalised linear models (GLMs) and extensions is proposed. Probabilistic predictions are elicited from the expert to parametrise a multivariate t prior distribution for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-21 Geoffrey R. Hosack

Recent work shows that path gradient estimators for normalizing flows have lower variance compared to standard estimators for variational inference, resulting in improved training. However, they are often prohibitively more expensive from a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Lorenz Vaitl , Ludwig Winkler , Lorenz Richter , Pan Kessel

Normalizing flows are a powerful class of generative models demonstrating strong performance in several speech and vision problems. In contrast to other generative models, normalizing flows are latent variable models with tractable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-06 Dmitry Baranchuk , Vladimir Aliev , Artem Babenko

Recent work [ 14 ] has introduced a method for prior elicitation that utilizes records of expert decisions to infer a prior distribution. While this method provides a promising approach to eliciting expert uncertainty, it has only been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Julia R. Falconer , Eibe Frank , Devon L. L. Polaschek , Chaitanya Joshi

Modeling complex conditional distributions is critical in a variety of settings. Despite a long tradition of research into conditional density estimation, current methods employ either simple parametric forms or are difficult to learn in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-15 Brian L Trippe , Richard E Turner

Normalizing flows are a class of machine learning models used to construct a complex distribution through a bijective mapping of a simple base distribution. We demonstrate that normalizing flows are particularly well suited as a Monte Carlo…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2021-08-11 Jack Brady , Pengsheng Wen , Jeremy W. Holt

This article introduces a new method for eliciting prior distributions from experts. The method models an expert decision-making process to infer a prior probability distribution for a rare event $A$. More specifically, assuming there…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-17 Julia R. Falconer , Eibe Frank , Devon L. L. Polaschek , Chaitanya Joshi

To model manifold data using normalizing flows, we employ isometric autoencoders to design embeddings with explicit inverses that do not distort the probability distribution. Using isometries separates manifold learning and density…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-09 Eike Cramer , Felix Rauh , Alexander Mitsos , Raúl Tempone , Manuel Dahmen

Normalizing flows have emerged as an important family of deep neural networks for modelling complex probability distributions. In this note, we revisit their coupling and autoregressive transformation layers as probabilistic graphical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-05 Antoine Wehenkel , Gilles Louppe

Normalizing flows are a popular class of models for approximating probability distributions. However, their invertible nature limits their ability to model target distributions whose support have a complex topological structure, such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-25 Vincent Stimper , Bernhard Schölkopf , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Estimating the expectation of a real-valued function of a random variable from sample data is a critical aspect of statistical analysis, with far-reaching implications in various applications. Current methodologies typically assume…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Paweł Lorek , Rafał Nowak , Rafał Topolnicki , Tomasz Trzciński , Maciej Zięba , Aleksandra Krystecka

Systems biology relies on mathematical models that often involve complex and intractable likelihood functions, posing challenges for efficient inference and model selection. Generative models, such as normalizing flows, have shown…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2023-12-06 Vincent D. Zaballa , Elliot E. Hui

Normalizing Flows are a promising new class of algorithms for unsupervised learning based on maximum likelihood optimization with change of variables. They offer to learn a factorized component representation for complex nonlinear data and,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-17 Reuben Feinman , Nikhil Parthasarathy

Generative models are a promising tool to address the sampling problem in multi-body and condensed-matter systems in the framework of statistical mechanics. In this work, we show that normalizing flows can be used to learn a transformation…

Computational Physics · Physics 2022-08-23 Alessandro Coretti , Sebastian Falkner , Phillip Geissler , Christoph Dellago

Background: The uptake of formalized prior elicitation from experts in Bayesian clinical trials has been limited due to challenges such as complex statistical modeling, lack of practical tools, and the cognitive burden placed on experts…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-15 Yongdong Ouyang , Janice J Eng , Denghuang Zhan , Hubert Wong , The WnW Research Team

In the past few years, deep generative models, such as generative adversarial networks \autocite{GAN}, variational autoencoders \autocite{vaepaper}, and their variants, have seen wide adoption for the task of modelling complex data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-02 Guilherme G. P. Freitas Pires , Mário A. T. Figueiredo

Given the growth in the variety and precision of astronomical datasets of interest for cosmology, the best cosmological constraints are invariably obtained by combining data from different experiments. At the likelihood level, one…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2024-09-04 Arrykrishna Mootoovaloo , Carlos García-García , David Alonso , Jaime Ruiz-Zapatero

We propose a novel approach to the problem of mutual information (MI) estimation via introducing a family of estimators based on normalizing flows. The estimator maps original data to the target distribution, for which MI is easier to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Ivan Butakov , Alexander Tolmachev , Sofia Malanchuk , Anna Neopryatnaya , Alexey Frolov