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Causal inference methods are widely applied in various decision-making domains such as precision medicine, optimal policy and economics. Central to causal inference is the treatment effect estimation of intervention strategies, such as…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-05-31 Tri Dung Duong , Qian Li , Guandong Xu

Causal inference methods are widely applied in various decision-making domains such as precision medicine, optimal policy and economics. Central to these applications is the treatment effect estimation of intervention strategies. Current…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-05-28 Tri Dung Duong , Qian Li , Guandong Xu

Generalizing treatment effects from a randomized trial to a target population requires the assumption that potential outcome distributions are invariant across populations after conditioning on observed covariates. This assumption fails…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-16 Amir Asiaee , Samhita Pal , Cole Beck , Jared D. Huling

This article discusses the application of stochastic intervention to find the optimal treatment distribution yielding a high value of expected potential outcome under the setting where the number of treatments is allowed to vary with $n$.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-22 Rohit Chaudhuri

Causal mediation analysis has historically been limited in two important ways: (i) a focus has traditionally been placed on binary treatments and static interventions, and (ii) direct and indirect effect decompositions have been pursued…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-13 Nima S. Hejazi , Kara E. Rudolph , Mark J. van der Laan , Iván Díaz

In the context of having an instrumental variable, the standard practice in causal inference begins by targeting an effect of interest and proceeds by formulating assumptions enabling its identification. We turn this around by adhering to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-25 Carlos García Meixide , Mark J. van der Laan

We consider the problem of defining the effect of an intervention on a time-varying risk factor or treatment for a disease or a physiological marker; we develop here the latter case. So, the system considered is $(Y,A,C)$, where $Y=(Y_t)$,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-31 Daniel Commenges , Mélanie Prague

A common concern when a policymaker draws causal inferences from and makes decisions based on observational data is that the measured covariates are insufficiently rich to account for all sources of confounding, i.e., the standard no…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-25 Tao Shen , Yifan Cui

Causal inference from observational data provides strong evidence for the best action in decision-making without performing expensive randomized trials. The effect of an action is usually not identifiable under unobserved confounding, even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Md Musfiqur Rahman , Ziwei Jiang , Hilaf Hasson , Murat Kocaoglu

Point identification of causal effects requires strong assumptions that are unreasonable in many practical settings. However, informative bounds on these effects can often be derived under plausible assumptions. Even when these bounds are…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-18 Julien D. Laurendeau , Aaron L. Sarvet , Mats J. Stensrud

Recent developments in causal inference allow us to transport a causal effect of a time-fixed treatment from a randomized trial to a target population across space but within the same time frame. In contrast to transportability across…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-11 Laura Forastiere , Fan Li , Michela Baccini

Interference occurs when the potential outcomes of a unit depend on the treatment of others. Interference can be highly heterogeneous, where treating certain individuals might have a larger effect on the population's overall outcome. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-11 Samantha G Dean , Georgia Papadogeorgou , Laura Forastiere

Causal inference from observational data is crucial for many disciplines such as medicine and economics. However, sharp bounds for causal effects under relaxations of the unconfoundedness assumption (causal sensitivity analysis) are subject…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-17 Dennis Frauen , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

Treatment effects of stochastic policy shifts quantify differences in outcomes across counterfactual scenarios with varying treatment distributions. Stochastic policy shifts may be of interest in settings where it is unrealistic or…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Michael Jetsupphasuk , Chenwei Fang , Didong Li , Michael G. Hudgens

This dissertation focuses on modern causal inference under uncertainty and data restrictions, with applications to neoadjuvant clinical trials, distributed data networks, and robust individualized decision making. In the first project, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-24 Xiaoqing Tan

Estimation and evaluation of individualized treatment rules have been studied extensively, but real-world treatment resource constraints have received limited attention in existing methods. We investigate a setting in which treatment is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-24 Hongxiang Qiu , Marco Carone , Alex Luedtke

Causal estimands can vary significantly depending on the relationship between outcomes in treatment and control groups, potentially leading to wide partial identification (PI) intervals that impede decision making. Incorporating covariates…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-02 Sirui Lin , Zijun Gao , Jose Blanchet , Peter Glynn

Many algorithms have been recently proposed for causal machine learning. Yet, there is little to no theory on their quality, especially considering finite samples. In this work, we propose a theory based on generalization bounds that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-16 Daniel Csillag , Claudio José Struchiner , Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

A growing number of researchers are conducting randomized experiments to analyze causal relationships in network settings where units influence one another. A dominant methodology for analyzing these experiments is design-based, leveraging…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-30 Ambarish Chattopadhyay , Kosuke Imai , Jose R. Zubizarreta

Recent research in causal inference has made important progress in addressing challenges to the external validity of trial findings. Such methods weight trial participant data to more closely resemble the distribution of effect-modifying…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-18 Justin M. Clark , Kollin W. Rott , James S. Hodges , Jared D. Huling
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