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Low-order climate models can play an important role in understanding low-frequency variability in the atmospheric circulation and how forcing consistent with anthropogenic climate change may affect this variability. Here, we study a…
Global warming is projected to intensify the hydrological cycle, amplifying risks to ecosystems and society. While extreme rainfall appears to exhibit stronger sensitivity to global warming compared to mean rainfall rates, a unifying…
We devise a pattern-aware feedback framework for representing the forced climate response using a suite of Green's function experiments with solar radiation perturbations. By considering the column energy balance, a comprehensive linear…
Global warming presents an unprecedented challenge to our planet however comprehensive understanding remains hindered by geographical biases temporal limitations and lack of standardization in existing research. An end to end visual…
The climate change attribution problem is addressed using empirical decomposition. Cycles in solar motion and activity of 60 and 20 years were used to develop an empirical model of Earth temperature variations. The model was fit to the…
Observed changes such as increasing global temperatures and the intensification of the global water cycle in the 20th century are also robust results of coupled general circulation models. In spite of this success model-to-model variability…
We develop a unified statistical framework for attributing heatwaves as spatio-temporal phenomena under climate change. We quantify the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the probability and persistence of heatwaves not captured by standard…
Most operational climate services providers base their seasonal predictions on initialised general circulation models (GCMs) or statistical techniques that fit past observations. GCMs require substantial computational resources, which…
The effect caused by the presence of a number of distinct time scales in a simple stochastic model for the Earth's atmosphere temperature fluctuations is studied. The model is described by a dissipative dynamics consisting of a set of…
Rapid changes in Earth's cryosphere caused by human activity can lead to significant environmental impacts. Computer models provide a useful tool for understanding the behavior and projecting the future of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets.…
We consider the effect of different temporal error structures on the inference of equilibrium climate sensitivity\footnote{ECS is defined as the realized equilibrium surface warming---globally-averaged surface air temperature---for a…
Nonlinear regression is a useful statistical tool, relating observed data and a nonlinear function of unknown parameters. When the parameter-dependent nonlinear function is computationally intensive, a straightforward regression analysis by…
Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with increasingly complex models which attempt to represent key…
The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…
Radiative forcing drives warming in the Earth system, leading to changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and associated radiative feedbacks. The link between changes in the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) net radiative flux and SST patterns,…
Accurate and computationally-viable representations of clouds and turbulence are a long-standing challenge for climate model development. Traditional parameterizations that crudely but efficiently approximate these processes are a leading…
Decadal climate predictions, which are initialized with observed conditions, are characterized by two main sources of uncertainties--internal and model variabilities. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations from the CMIP5 decadal…
There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether the present global warming is increasing local and global temperature variability. The central methodological issues of this debate relate to the proper treatment of normalised…
Severity of warming predicted by climate models depends on their Transient Climate Response (TCR). Inter-model spread of TCR has persisted at ~100% of its mean for decades. Existing observational constraints of TCR are based on observed…
The temperature in the transient climate response is lower than the equilibrium temperature for the same amount of forcing. The degree of disequilibrium is not constant in time and depends on various climate parameters. We derive intuition…