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Selective conformal prediction can yield substantially tighter uncertainty sets when we can identify calibration examples that are exchangeable with the test example. In interventional settings, such as perturbation experiments in genomics,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Amir Asiaee , Kavey Aryan , James P. Long

In recent years, causal modelling has been used widely to improve generalization and to provide interpretability in machine learning models. To determine cause-effect relationships in the absence of a randomized trial, we can model causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-03 Rohan Giriraj , Sinnu Susan Thomas

Modern high-throughput biological datasets with thousands of perturbations provide the opportunity for large-scale discovery of causal graphs that represent the regulatory interactions between genes. Differentiable causal graphical models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Zaikang Lin , Sei Chang , Aaron Zweig , Minseo Kang , Elham Azizi , David A. Knowles

Inferring the effect of interventions within complex systems is a fundamental problem of statistics. A widely studied approach employs structural causal models that postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-14 David Strieder , Mathias Drton

We study causal representation learning, the task of inferring latent causal variables and their causal relations from high-dimensional mixtures of the variables. Prior work relies on weak supervision, in the form of counterfactual pre- and…

We introduce a new approach to functional causal modeling from observational data, called Causal Generative Neural Networks (CGNN). CGNN leverages the power of neural networks to learn a generative model of the joint distribution of the…

Understanding gene perturbation effects across diverse cellular contexts is a central challenge in functional genomics, with important implications for therapeutic discovery and precision medicine. Single-cell technologies enable…

Genomics · Quantitative Biology 2025-11-25 Abrar Rahman Abir , Sajib Acharjee Dip , Liqing Zhang

A major limitation of machine learning (ML) prediction models is that they recover associational, rather than causal, predictive relationships between variables. In high-stakes automation applications of ML this is problematic, as the model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Jianqiao Mao , Max A. Little

Computer vision is hard because of a large variability in lighting, shape, and texture; in addition the image signal is non-additive due to occlusion. Generative models promised to account for this variability by accurately modelling the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2015-03-10 Varun Jampani , Sebastian Nowozin , Matthew Loper , Peter V. Gehler

In genome-wide prediction, independence of marker allele substitution effects is typically assumed; however, since early stages of this technology it has been known that nature points to correlated effects. In statistics, graphical models…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2017-09-21 Carlos Alberto Martínez , Kshitij Khare , Syed Rahman , Mauricio A. Elzo

We study the problem of learning causal representations from unknown, latent interventions in a general setting, where the latent distribution is Gaussian but the mixing function is completely general. We prove strong identifiability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-19 Simon Buchholz , Goutham Rajendran , Elan Rosenfeld , Bryon Aragam , Bernhard Schölkopf , Pradeep Ravikumar

Causal models bring many benefits to decision-making systems (or agents) by making them interpretable, sample-efficient, and robust to changes in the input distribution. However, spurious correlations can lead to wrong causal models and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-09 Sergei Volodin , Nevan Wichers , Jeremy Nixon

Estimating causal effects from observational data remains a fundamental challenge in causal inference, especially in the presence of latent confounders. This paper focuses on estimating causal effects in Gaussian Linear Structural Causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-09 Aurghya Maiti , Prateek Jain

We introduce a new family of graphical models that consists of graphs with possibly directed, undirected and bidirected edges but without directed cycles. We show that these models are suitable for representing causal models with additive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-05-30 Jose M. Peña , Marcus Bendtsen

Gene regulatory networks play a crucial role in controlling an organism's biological processes, which is why there is significant interest in developing computational methods that are able to extract their structure from high-throughput…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-19 Ioan Gabriel Bucur , Tom van Bussel , Tom Claassen , Tom Heskes

Existing approaches to causal discovery often rely on restrictive modeling assumptions that limit their applicability in real-world settings, particularly when data are heavy-tailed or contain a mixture of discrete and continuous variables.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-25 Juraj Bodik , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

We consider the task of counterfactual estimation from observational imaging data given a known causal structure. In particular, quantifying the causal effect of interventions for high-dimensional data with neural networks remains an open…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-22 Pedro Sanchez , Sotirios A. Tsaftaris

Identifying harmful instances, whose absence in a training dataset improves model performance, is important for building better machine learning models. Although previous studies have succeeded in estimating harmful instances under…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-20 Naoyuki Terashita , Hiroki Ohashi , Yuichi Nonaka , Takashi Kanemaru

With observational data alone, causal structure learning is a challenging problem. The task becomes easier when having access to data collected from perturbations of the underlying system, even when the nature of these is unknown. Existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-10 Armeen Taeb , Juan L. Gamella , Christina Heinze-Deml , Peter Bühlmann

In causal inference, an important problem is to quantify the effects of interventions or treatments. Many studies focus on estimating the mean causal effects; however, these estimands may offer limited insight since two distributions can…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Archer Gong Zhang , Nancy Reid , Qiang Sun