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We propose the use of a stochastic variational frame prediction deep neural network with a learned prior distribution trained on two-dimensional rain radar reflectivity maps for precipitation nowcasting with lead times of up to 2 1/2 hours.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-05-14 Alexander Bihlo

This study examines the predictability of artificial intelligence (AI) models for weather prediction. Using a simple deep-learning architecture based on convolutional long short-term memory and the ERA5 data for training, we show that…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-10-07 Chanh Kieu

Precipitation is a complex physical process that varies in space and time. Predictions and interpolations at unobserved times and/or locations help to solve important problems in many areas. In this paper, we present a hierarchical Bayesian…

Applications · Statistics 2013-01-17 Fabio Sigrist , Hans R. Künsch , Werner A. Stahel

Forecasting how landslides will evolve over time or whether they will fail is a challenging task due to a variety of factors, both internal and external. Despite their considerable potential to address these challenges, deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-19 Zhengjing Ma , Gang Mei

The short-term prediction of precipitation is critical in many areas of life. Recently, a large body of work was devoted to forecasting radar reflectivity images. The radar images are available only in areas with ground weather radars.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-01 Jiří Pihrt , Rudolf Raevskiy , Petr Šimánek , Matej Choma

Effective environmental planning and management to address climate change could be achieved through extensive environmental modeling with machine learning and conventional physical models. In order to develop and improve these models,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-09 Muhammed Sit , Bong-Chul Seo , Ibrahim Demir

Accurate precipitation forecasting is essential for hydrometeorological risk management, especially for anticipating extreme rainfall that can lead to flash flooding and infrastructure damage. This study introduces a diffusion-based deep…

Precipitation nowcasting, predicting future radar echo sequences from current observations, is a critical yet challenging task due to the inherently chaotic and tightly coupled spatio-temporal dynamics of the atmosphere. While recent…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Thao Nguyen , Jiaqi Ma , Fahad Shahbaz Khan , Souhaib Ben Taieb , Salman Khan

This paper presents an algorithm that relies on a series of dense and deep neural networks for passive microwave retrieval of precipitation. The neural networks learn from coincidences of brightness temperatures from the Global…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-06 Reyhaneh Rahimi , Sajad Vahedizadeh , Ardeshir Ebtehaj

Forecasting severe weather conditions is still a very challenging and computationally expensive task due to the enormous amount of data and the complexity of the underlying physics. Machine learning approaches and especially deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-09 Christian Schön , Jens Dittrich

Effective training of Deep Neural Networks requires massive amounts of data and compute. As a result, longer times are needed to train complex models requiring large datasets, which can severely limit research on model development and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-08 Siddharth Samsi , Christopher J. Mattioli , Mark S. Veillette

With extreme weather events becoming more common, the risk posed by surface water flooding is ever increasing. In this work we propose a model, and associated Bayesian inference scheme, for generating probabilistic (high-resolution…

This study investigates the relationships which deep learning methods can identify between the input and output data. As a case study, rainfall-runoff modeling in a snow-dominated watershed by means of a long- and short-term memory (LSTM)…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-11-11 Kazuki Yokoo , Kei Ishida , Ali Ercan , Tongbi Tu , Takeyoshi Nagasato , Masato Kiyama , Motoki Amagasaki

Accurately representing surface precipitation is crucial for the operational use of weather and climate models. Presently, global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models struggle to accurately generate precipitation due to their…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-30 Raul Moreno , Dale Durran

The problem of high-quality drought forecasting up to a year in advance is critical for agriculture planning and insurance. Yet, it is still unsolved with reasonable accuracy due to data complexity and aridity stochasticity. We tackle…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-15 Alexander Marusov , Vsevolod Grabar , Yury Maximov , Nazar Sotiriadi , Alexander Bulkin , Alexey Zaytsev

The hazard of pluvial flooding is largely influenced by the spatial and temporal dependence characteristics of precipitation. When extreme precipitation possesses strong spatial dependence, the risk of flooding is amplified due to catchment…

Applications · Statistics 2020-08-03 Gregory P. Bopp , Benjamin A. Shaby , Chris E. Forest , Alfonso Mejía

Precipitation nowcasting based on radar data plays a crucial role in extreme weather prediction and has broad implications for disaster management. Despite progresses have been made based on deep learning, two key challenges of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-08 Junchao Gong , Lei Bai , Peng Ye , Wanghan Xu , Na Liu , Jianhua Dai , Xiaokang Yang , Wanli Ouyang

Climate change is increasing the occurrence of extreme precipitation events, threatening infrastructure, agriculture, and public safety. Ensemble prediction systems provide probabilistic forecasts but exhibit biases and difficulties in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-09 Christopher Bülte , Sohir Maskey , Philipp Scholl , Jonas von Berg , Gitta Kutyniok

Numerical weather prediction has traditionally been based on physical models of the atmosphere. Recently, however, the rise of deep learning has created increased interest in purely data-driven medium-range weather forecasting with first…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-03-17 Stephan Rasp , Nils Thuerey

Obtaining reliable precipitation estimation with high resolutions in time and space is of great importance to hydrological studies. However, accurately estimating precipitation is a challenging task over high mountainous complex terrain.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-23 Yihan Wang , Lujun Zhang