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We propose a stochastic model of interactive formation of individual expectations regarding the business climate in an industry. Our model is motivated by a business climate survey cond ucted since 1960 in Germany by the Ifo-institute…
In this paper, we introduce a new two-parameter lifetime distribution, called the exponential-generalized truncated logarithmic (EGTL) distribution, by compounding the exponential and generalized truncated logarithmic distributions. Our…
Possible distributions are discussed for intertrade durations and first-passage processes in financial markets. The view-point of renewal theory is assumed. In order to represent market data with relatively long durations, two types of…
A multi-scale methodology is developed in conjunction with a probabilistic fatigue lifetime model for structures with pores whose exact distribution, i.e. geometries and locations, is unknown. The method takes into account uncertainty in…
The dynamics of collaboration networks of firms follow a life-cycle of growth and decline. That does not imply they also become less resilient. Instead, declining collaboration networks may still have the ability to mitigate shocks from…
Most theoretical analysis for lifetime distribution explains origins of specific distribution based on independent failure. We develop a unified framework encompassing different lifetime distribution for failure-coupled network systems. We…
We study several models of growth driven by innovation and imitation by a continuum of firms, focusing on the interaction between the two. We first investigate a model on a technology ladder where innovation and imitation combine to…
A model for economic behavior, under heterogeneous spatial economic conditions is developed. The role of selection pressure in a Bak-Sneppen-like dynamics with entity diffusion on a lattice is studied by Monte-Carlo simulation taking into…
In studies of recurrent events, joint modeling approaches are often needed to allow for potential dependent censoring by a terminal event such as death. Joint frailty models for recurrent events and death with an additional dependence…
This article addresses the probabilistic nature of fatigue life in structures subjected to cyclic loading with variable amplitude. Drawing on the formalisation of Miner's cumulative damage rule that we introduced in the recent article…
The estimation of marginal loan write-off probabilities is a non-trivial task when modelling the loss given default (LGD) risk parameter in credit risk. We explore two types of survival models in estimating the overall write-off probability…
The issue of longevity has been long time recognized as one of key concepts in demography. A particular aspect of longevity addressed in this paper is the difference in average observed duration of life for female and male population,…
Organizational growth processes have consistently been shown to exhibit a fatter-than-Gaussian growth-rate distribution in a variety of settings. Long periods of relatively small changes are interrupted by sudden changes in all size scales.…
Trends in human longevity are puzzling, especially when considering the limits of human longevity. Partially, the conflicting assertions are based upon demographic evidence and the interpretation of survival and mortality curves using the…
Creep under a sustained load can persist for long times yet culminate in abrupt yielding or rupture, implying a finite lifetime even when the material appears solid. Here, we formulate lifetime prediction as Bayesian inference over an…
This paper considers the empirical likelihood (EL) construction of confidence intervals for a linear functional based on right censored lifetime data. Many of the results in literature show that log EL has a limiting scaled chi-square…
An analytic model is presented that considers the evolution of a market of durable goods. The model suggests that after introduction goods spread always according to a Bass diffusion. However, this phase will be followed by a diffusion…
The question of whether biological populations survive or are eventually driven to extinction has long been examined using mathematical models. In this work we study population survival or extinction using a stochastic, discrete…
The Wasserstein distance is a metric for assessing distributional differences. The measure originates in optimal transport theory and can be interpreted as the minimal cost of transforming one distribution into another. In this paper, the…
Further to the proposal and application of a stochastic methodology and the resulting first exit time distribution function to life table data we introduce a theoretical framework for the estimation of the maximum deterioration age and to…