Related papers: Machine learning-based probabilistic forecasting o…
Currently all major meteorological centres generate ensemble forecasts using their operational ensemble prediction systems; however, it is a general problem that the spread of the ensemble is too small, resulting in underdispersive…
Accurate and reliable forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) power generation is crucial for grid operations, electricity markets, and energy planning, as solar systems now contribute a significant share of the electricity supply in many…
As Chile's electric power sector advances toward a future powered by renewable energy, accurate forecasting of renewable generation is essential for managing grid operations. The integration of renewable energy sources is particularly…
By the end of 2021, the renewable energy share of the global electricity capacity reached 38.3% and the new installations are dominated by wind and solar energy, showing global increases of 12.7% and 18.5%, respectively. However, both wind…
Weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models play a central role in solar energy forecasting, where a cascade of physics-based models is used in a model chain approach to convert forecasts of solar irradiance to solar power…
In order to enable the transition towards renewable energy sources, probabilistic energy forecasting is of critical importance for incorporating volatile power sources such as solar energy into the electrical grid. Solar energy forecasting…
Estimation of the generated power of renewable energy resources is in general important for planning operations as well as demand balance and power quality. This paper addresses the problem of the estimation of the short-term (3-hour ahead)…
With increasing concerns of climate change, renewable resources such as photovoltaic (PV) have gained popularity as a means of energy generation. The smooth integration of such resources in power system operations is enabled by accurate…
Capturing the uncertainty in probabilistic wind power forecasts is challenging, especially when uncertain input variables, such as the weather, play a role. Since ensemble weather predictions aim to capture the uncertainty in the weather…
Ensemble forecasting systems have advanced meteorology by providing probabilistic estimates of future states. Nonetheless, systematic biases often persist, making statistical post-processing essential. Traditional parametric post-processing…
Probabilistic weather forecasts from ensemble systems require statistical postprocessing to yield calibrated and sharp predictive distributions. This paper presents an area-covering postprocessing method for ensemble precipitation…
Accurate mechanisms for forecasting solar irradiance and insolation provide important information for the planning of renewable energy and agriculture projects as well as for environmental and socio-economical studies. This research…
Power systems engineers are actively developing larger power plants out of photovoltaics imposing some major challenges which include its intermittent power generation and its poor dispatchability. The issue is that PV is a variable…
Weather forecasting presents several challenges, including the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and the high computational demands of numerical weather prediction models. To achieve the most accurate predictions, the ideal scenario involves…
The prediction of solar irradiance enhances reliability in photovoltaic (PV) solar plant generation and grid integration. In Colombia, PV plants face penalties if energy production deviates beyond governmental thresholds from intraday…
Statistical postprocessing is routinely applied to correct systematic errors of numerical weather prediction models (NWP) and to automatically produce calibrated local forecasts for end-users. Postprocessing is particularly relevant in…
Since the start of the operational use of ensemble prediction systems, ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting has become the most advanced approach in weather prediction. However, despite the persistent development of the last three…
In the last decades wind power became the second largest energy source in the EU covering 16% of its electricity demand. However, due to its volatility, accurate short range wind power predictions are required for successful integration of…
Renewable Energies (RES) penetration is progressing rapidly: in France, the installed capacity of photovoltaic (PV) power rose from 26MW in 2007 to 8GW in 2017 [1]. Power generated by PV plants being highly dependent on variable weather…
One essential component of operational space weather forecasting is the prediction of solar flares. With a multitude of flare forecasting methods now available online it is still unclear which of these methods performs best, and none are…