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This paper presents a novel approach for propagating uncertainties in dynamical systems building on high-order Taylor expansions of the flow and moment-generating functions (MGFs). Unlike prior methods that focus on Gaussian distributions,…

Space Physics · Physics 2025-04-08 Giacomo Acciarini , Nicola Baresi , David Lloyd , Dario Izzo

We use Lyapunov-like functions and convex optimization to propagate uncertainty in the initial condition of nonlinear systems governed by ordinary differential equations. We consider the full nonlinear dynamics without approximation,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-08-04 Francesca Covella , Giovanni Fantuzzi

This paper proposes a new method to propagate uncertainties undergoing nonlinear dynamics using the Koopman Operator (KO). Probability density functions are propagated directly using the Koopman approximation of the solution flow of the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-07-30 Simone Servadio , Giovanni Lavezzi , Christian Hofmann , Di Wu , Richard Linares

In this paper, we address the problem of uncertainty propagation through nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems. More precisely, given a discrete-time continuous-state probabilistic nonlinear dynamical system, we aim at finding the sequence…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-02-01 Ashkan Jasour , Allen Wang , Brian C. Williams

This paper outlines an approach to the approximation of probability density functions by quadratic forms of weighted orthonormal basis functions with positive semi-definite Hermitian matrices of unit trace. Such matrices are called…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-17 Igor G. Vladimirov

A multifidelity method for the nonlinear propagation of uncertainties in the presence of stochastic accelerations is presented. The proposed algorithm treats the uncertainty propagation (UP) problem by separating the propagation of the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Alberto Fossà , Roberto Armellin , Emmanuel Delande , Francesco Sanfedino

We develop a new method to solve the Fokker-Planck or Kolmogorov's forward equation that governs the time evolution of the joint probability density function of a continuous-time stochastic nonlinear system. Numerical solution of this…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-11-16 Kenneth F. Caluya , Abhishek Halder

In this paper, we consider discrete-time non-linear stochastic dynamical systems with additive process noise in which both the initial state and noise distributions are uncertain. Our goal is to quantify how the uncertainty in these…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-19 Steven Adams , Eduardo Figueiredo , Luca Laurenti

A framework for identifying nonlinear port-Hamiltonian systems using input-state-output data is introduced. The framework utilizes neural networks' universal approximation capacity to effectively represent complex dynamics in a structured…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-02-18 Karim Cherifi , Achraf El Messaoudi , Hannes Gernandt , Marco Roschkowski

We explain the ubiquity and extremely slow evolution of non gaussian out-of-equilibrium distributions for the Hamiltonian Mean-Field model, by means of traditional kinetic theory. Deriving the Fokker-Planck equation for a test particle, one…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Freddy Bouchet , Thierry Dauxois

The discretization approximation method commonly used to simulate the dynamics of quantum system coupled to the environment in continuum often suffers from the periodically partial recovery of initial state because of the effect of finite…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-05-07 H. T. Cui , Y. A. Yan , M. Qin , X. X. Yi

This paper addresses uncertainty propagation on unimodular matrix Lie groups that have a surjective exponential map. We derive the exact formula for the propagation of mean and covariance in a continuous-time setting from the governing…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-12-07 Jikai Ye , Amitesh S. Jayaraman , Gregory S. Chirikjian

This paper introduces a novel method for the automatic detection and handling of nonlinearities in a generic transformation. A nonlinearity index that exploits second order Taylor expansions and polynomial bounding techniques is first…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-02-05 Matteo Losacco , Alberto Fossà , Roberto Armellin

Uncertainty propagation in nonlinear dynamic systems remains an outstanding problem in scientific computing and control. Numerous approaches have been developed, but are limited in their capability to tackle problems with more than a few…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-11-22 Tenavi Nakamura-Zimmerer , Daniele Venturi , Qi Gong , Wei Kang

In this paper, we consider the problem of propagating an uncertain distribution by a possibly non-linear function and quantifying the resulting uncertainty. We measure the uncertainty using the Wasserstein distance, and for a given input…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-13 Eduardo Figueiredo , Steven Adams , Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani , Luca Laurenti

This paper deals with uncertainty propagation of general stochastic hybrid systems (GSHS) where the continuous state space is a compact Lie group. A computational framework is proposed to solve the Fokker-Planck (FP) equation that describes…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-03-08 Weixin Wang , Taeyoung Lee

This paper introduces a global uncertainty propagation scheme for rigid body dynamics, through a combination of numerical parametric uncertainty techniques, noncommutative harmonic analysis, and geometric numerical integration. This method…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2008-03-12 Taeyoung Lee , Melvin Leok , N. Harris McClamroch

Predicting the distribution of future states in a stochastic system, known as belief propagation, is fundamental to reasoning under uncertainty. However, nonlinear dynamics often make analytical belief propagation intractable, requiring…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Peter Amorese , Morteza Lahijanian

This work proposes an adaptive structure-preserving model order reduction method for finite-dimensional parametrized Hamiltonian systems modeling non-dissipative phenomena. To overcome the slowly decaying Kolmogorov width typical of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-02-02 Jan S. Hesthaven , Cecilia Pagliantini , Nicolò Ripamonti

When ignorance due to the lack of knowledge, modeled as epistemic uncertainty using Dempster-Shafer structures on closed intervals, is present in the model parameters, a new uncertainty propagation method is necessary to propagate both…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-07-11 Gabriel Terejanu , Puneet Singla , Tarunraj Singh , Peter D. Scott
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