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Recent progress in foundation models has enabled strong zero-shot performance for time series forecasting. In this work, we show that such capabilities can also emerge from tabular foundation models. We introduce TabPFN-TS, a simple method…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Shi Bin Hoo , Samuel Müller , David Salinas , Frank Hutter

Understanding how the adult human brain learns novel categories is an important problem in neuroscience. Drift-diffusion models are popular in such contexts for their ability to mimic the underlying neural mechanisms. One such model for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-01 Minerva Mukhopadhyay , Jacie R. McHaney , Bharath Chandrasekaran , Abhra Sarkar

Modelling claim frequency and severity for non-life insurance pricing predominantly relies on generalised linear models, with gradient-boosted machines as the leading machine learning alternative. Tabular foundation models (TFMs) present a…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-26 Bruno Deprez , Wouter Verbeke , Tim Verdonck

Tabular Prior-Data Fitted Network (TabPFN) is a foundation model designed for small to medium-sized tabular data, which has attracted much attention recently. This paper investigates the application of TabPFN in Combinatorial Optimization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Nguyen Gia Hien Vu , Yifan Tang , Rey Lim , Yifan Yang , Hang Ma , Ke Wang , G. Gary Wang

Tabular data is prevalent in many critical domains, yet it is often challenging to acquire in large quantities. This scarcity usually results in poor performance of machine learning models on such data. Data augmentation, a common strategy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-30 Andrei Margeloiu , Adrián Bazaga , Nikola Simidjievski , Pietro Liò , Mateja Jamnik

Prior-Fitted Networks (PFNs) have recently been proposed to efficiently perform tabular classification tasks. Although they achieve good performance on small datasets, they encounter limitations with larger datasets. These limitations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Yuxin Wang , Botian Jiang , Yiran Guo , Quan Gan , David Wipf , Xuanjing Huang , Xipeng Qiu

TabPFN has emerged as a promising in-context learning model for tabular data, capable of directly predicting the labels of test samples given labeled training examples. It has demonstrated competitive performance, particularly on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-05 Si-Yang Liu , Han-Jia Ye

Recent tabular Foundational Models (FM) such as TabPFN and TabICL, leverage in-context learning to achieve strong performance without gradient updates or fine-tuning. However, their robustness to adversarial manipulation remains largely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-10 Mohamed Djilani , Thibault Simonetto , Karim Tit , Florian Tambon , Salah Ghamizi , Maxime Cordy , Mike Papadakis

Non-stationary sequences arise naturally in control, forecasting, and decision-making. The data-generating process shifts at unknown times, and models must detect the change, discard or downweight obsolete evidence, and adapt to new…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Carson Dudley , Yutong Bi , Xiaofeng Liu , Samet Oymak

Accurate forecasting of recovery rates (RR) is central to credit risk management and regulatory capital determination. In many loan portfolios, however, RR modeling is constrained by data scarcity arising from infrequent default events.…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-24 Christopher Gerling , Hanqiu Peng , Ying Chen , Stefan Lessmann

We have described a novel approach for training tabular data using the TabTransformer model with self-supervised learning. Traditional machine learning models for tabular data, such as GBDT are being widely used though our paper examines…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-30 Tirth Kiranbhai Vyas

While tabular classification has traditionally relied on from-scratch training, a recent breakthrough called prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) challenges this approach. Similar to large language models, PFNs make use of pretraining and…

Anomaly detection in tabular data is challenging due to high dimensionality, complex feature dependencies, and heterogeneous noise. Many existing methods rely on proximity-based cues and may miss anomalies caused by violations of complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Sha Lu , Jixue Liu , Stefan Peters , Thuc Duy Le , Craig Xie , Lin Liu , Jiuyong Li

Task-agnostic tabular foundation models such as TabPFN have achieved impressive performance on tabular learning tasks, yet the origins of their inductive biases remain poorly understood. In this work, we study TabPFN through the lens of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Jianqiao Zheng , Cameron Gordon , Yiping Ji , Hemanth Saratchandran , Simon Lucey

We present a new adaptive algorithm for learning discrete distributions under distribution drift. In this setting, we observe a sequence of independent samples from a discrete distribution that is changing over time, and the goal is to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-11 Alessio Mazzetto

Robustness to distribution shift has become a growing concern for text and image models as they transition from research subjects to deployment in the real world. However, high-quality benchmarks for distribution shift in tabular machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-12 Josh Gardner , Zoran Popovic , Ludwig Schmidt

Synthesizing high-quality tabular data is an important topic in many data science tasks, ranging from dataset augmentation to privacy protection. However, developing expressive generative models for tabular data is challenging due to its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Juntong Shi , Minkai Xu , Harper Hua , Hengrui Zhang , Stefano Ermon , Jure Leskovec

The notion of concept drift refers to the phenomenon that the data generating distribution changes over time; as a consequence machine learning models may become inaccurate and need adjustment. In this paper we consider the problem of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-16 Fabian Hinder , André Artelt , Valerie Vaquet , Barbara Hammer

Transformer-based models have shown promising performance on tabular data compared to their classical counterparts such as neural networks and Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDTs) in scenarios with limited training data. They utilize…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-21 Pasan Dissanayake , Sanghamitra Dutta

Accurate and interpretable bearing fault classification is critical for ensuring the reliability of rotating machinery, particularly under variable operating conditions where domain shifts can significantly degrade model performance. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Tasfiq E. Alam , Md Manjurul Ahsan , Shivakumar Raman