Related papers: Forecasting Net Migration By Age: The Flow-Differe…
Estimates of future migration patterns are of broad interest in demography. Forced migration, including refugee and asylum seekers, plays an important role in overall migration patterns, but is notoriously difficult to forecast. Focusing on…
1. Citizen and community-science (CS) datasets have great potential for estimating interannual patterns of population change given the large volumes of data collected globally every year. Yet, the flexible protocols that enable many CS…
The mobility patterns of people in cities evolve alongside changes in land use and population. This makes it crucial for urban planners to simulate and analyze human mobility patterns for purposes such as transportation optimization and…
Conventionally, network migration models study competition between emerging and incumbent technologies by considering the resulting increase in revenue and associated cost of migration. We propose to advance the science in the existing…
We present a method for image-based crowd counting, one that can predict a crowd density map together with the uncertainty values pertaining to the predicted density map. To obtain prediction uncertainty, we model the crowd density values…
We study the problem of estimating latent population flows from aggregated count data. This problem arises when individual trajectories are not available due to privacy issues or measurement fidelity. Instead, the aggregated observations…
Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…
Generative AI has achieved remarkable empirical success, but from the perspective of statistics it often remains opaque: its predictions may be accurate, yet the underlying mechanism is difficult to interpret, analyze, and trust. This book…
We study two models of population with migration. We assume that we are given infinitely many islands with the same number r of resources, each individual consuming one unit of resources. On an island lives an individual whose genealogy is…
Flow matching has recently emerged as a promising alternative to diffusion-based generative models, offering faster sampling and simpler training by learning continuous flows governed by ordinary differential equations. Despite growing…
Although the analysis of human mortality has a well-established history, the attempt to accurately forecast future death-rate patterns for different age groups and time horizons still attracts active research. Such a predictive focus has…
Traffic flow count data in networks arise in many applications, such as automobile or aviation transportation, certain directed social network contexts, and Internet studies. Using an example of Internet browser traffic flow through…
Rectified flow (Liu et al., 2022; Liu, 2022; Wu et al., 2023) is a method for defining a transport map between two distributions, and enjoys popularity in machine learning, although theoretical results supporting the validity of these…
Understanding network flows such as commuter traffic in large transportation networks is an ongoing challenge due to the complex nature of the transportation infrastructure and of human mobility. Here we show a first-principles based method…
Migration is central in various societal problems related to socioeconomic development. While much of the existing research has focused on international migration, migration patterns within a single country remain relatively unexplored. In…
In this article we analyze the global flow of migrants from 206 source countries to 145 destination countries (2006-2010) and focus on the differences in the migration network pattern between destination and source counters as represented…
Although generative AI has been successful in many areas, its ability to model geospatial data is still underexplored. Urban flow, a typical kind of geospatial data, is critical for a wide range of urban applications. Existing studies…
We present a methodology for determining reservoir groundwater age and transit time probability distributions in a deterministic manner, considering advective-dispersive transport in steady velocity fields. In a first step, we propose to…
The United Nations released official probabilistic population projections (PPP) for all countries for the first time in July 2014. These were obtained by projecting the period total fertility rate (TFR) and life expectancy at birth ($e_0$)…
Fertility differentials by urban-rural residence and nativity of women in Australia significantly impact population composition at sub-national levels. We aim to provide consistent fertility forecasts for Australian women characterized by…