Related papers: Epidemic outbreaks in structured host populations
The correct evaluation of the reproductive number $R$ for COVID-19 -- which characterizes the average number of secondary cases generated by each typical primary case -- is central in the quantification of the potential scope of the…
We considered a model for an infectious disease outbreak, when the depletion of susceptible individuals is negligible, and assumed that individuals adapt their behavior according to the information they receive about new cases. In line with…
We study a multi-type SIR epidemic process among a heterogeneous population that interacts through a network. When we base social contact on a random graph with given vertex degrees, we give limit theorems on the fraction of infected…
Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…
We construct an epidemic model for the transmission of dengue fever with an early-life stage in the vector dynamics and age-structure within hosts. The early-life stage of the vector is modeled via a general function that supports multiple…
We study a multitype SIR epidemic model where individuals are categorized into different types, and where infection spread is characterized by a next-generation matrix $M=\{m_{ij}\}$ with community fractions $\{\pi_j\}$ for the different…
In this paper we present a model describing Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) type epidemics spreading on a dynamic contact network with random link activation and deletion where link ac- tivation can be locally constrained. We use and…
The contact structure between hosts has a critical influence on disease spread. However, most networkbased models used in epidemiology tend to ignore heterogeneity in the weighting of contacts. This assumption is known to be at odds with…
A stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a social network is analysed. The underlying social network is described by an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph but, during the course of the epidemic,…
Stochasticity and spatial heterogeneity are of great interest recently in studying the spread of an infectious disease. The presented method solves an inverse problem to discover the effectively decisive topology of a heterogeneous network…
This work presents a model combining the simplest communicable and non-communicable disease models. The latter is, by far, the leading cause of sickness and death in the World, and introduces basal heterogeneity in populations where…
We define data analyses to monitor a change in R, the average number of secondary cases caused by a typical infected individual. The input dataset consists of incident cases partitioned into outbreaks, each initiated from a single index…
Epidemiological dynamics are affected by the spatial and demographic structure of the host population. Households and neighbourhoods are known to be important groupings but little is known about the epidemiological interplay between them.…
Identifying the main environmental drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility in the population is crucial for understanding current and potential future outbursts of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases. To address this problem, we…
In epidemic modeling, the term infection strength indicates the ratio of infection rate and cure rate. If the infection strength is higher than a certain threshold -- which we define as the epidemic threshold - then the epidemic spreads…
A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…
Individual contributions to the spread of an epidemic vary widely due to an individual's location in a social network and their intrinsic ability to spread or contract diseases. While the effect of heterogeneous population structure and…
This study proposes a nonhomogeneous birth--death model which captures the dynamics of a directly transmitted infectious disease. Our model accounts for an important aspect of observed epidemic data in which only symptomatic infecteds are…
We present an analysis of six deterministic models for epidemic spreading. The evolution of the number of individuals of each class is given by ordinary differential equations of the first order in time, which are set up by using the laws…
In this paper, we propose a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, in which each node is assigned with an identical capability of active contacts, $A$, at each time step. In contrast to the previous studies, we find that on…