Related papers: Epidemic outbreaks in structured host populations
Many infectious diseases can lead to re-infection. We examined the relationship between the prevalence of repeat infection and the basic reproductive number (R0). First we solved a generic, deterministic compartmental model of re-infection…
In this paper we first introduce the general stochastic epidemic model for the spread of infectious diseases. Then we give methods for inferring model parameters such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and vaccination coverage $v_c$…
This paper is concerned with a nonlocal dispersal susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model with Dirichlet boundary condition, where the rates of disease transmission and recovery are assumed to be spatially heterogeneous. We…
This paper presents a disease-severity-structured epidemic model with treatment necessary only to severe infective individuals to discuss the effect of the treatment capacity on the disease transmission. It is shown that a backward…
A very large class of ODE epidemic models (2.2) discussed in this paper enjoys the property of admitting also an integral renewal formulation, with respect to an "age of infection kernel" a(t) which has a matrix exponential form (3.2). We…
Analytical expressions for the basic reproduction number, R0, have been obtained in the past for a wide variety of mathematical models for infectious disease spread, along with expressions for the expected final size of an outbreak.…
We formulate a general SEIR epidemic model in a heterogenous population characterized by some trait in a discrete or continuous subset of a space R d. The incubation and recovery rates governing the evolution of each homogenous…
We study the SIR model of epidemics on positively correlated heterogeneous networks with population variability, and explore the dependence of the final outbreak size on the network heterogeneity strength and basic reproduction number $R_0$…
We investigate the long-time dynamics of a SIR epidemic model with infinitely many pathogen variants infecting a homogeneous host population. We show that the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ of the pathogen can be defined in that…
We consider a single outbreak susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and corresponding estimation procedures for the effective reproductive number $\mathcal{R}(t)$. We discuss the estimation of the underlying SIR parameters with a…
Recent evidences show that individuals who recovered from COVID-19 can be reinfected. However, this phenomenon has rarely been studied using mathematical models. In this paper, we propose a SEIRE epidemic model to describe the spread of the…
Studies about epidemic modelling have been conducted since before 19th century. Both deterministic and stochastiic model were used to capture the dynamic of infection in the population. The purpose of this project is to investigate the…
Understanding how age-specific social contact patterns and susceptibility influence infectious disease transmission is crucial for accurate epidemic modeling. This study presents an eigenvector-based sensitivity analysis framework to…
This is a pedagogical paper on estimating the number of people that can be infected by one infectious person during an epidemic outbreak, known as the reproduction number. Knowing the number is crucial for developing policy responses. There…
Capturing the structure of a population and characterising contacts within the population are key to reliable projections of infectious disease. Two main elements of population structure -- contact heterogeneity and age -- have been…
We study the dominant eigenstructure of positive-kernel Fredholm operators arising in multi-state structured population models, including integral projection models and age-structured McKendrick-type equations. To obtain a determinant-free…
Although pandemics are often studied as if populations are well-mixed, disease transmission networks exhibit a multi-scale structure stretching from the individual all the way up to the entire globe. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an…
The reproductive number R_0 (and its value after initial disease emergence R) has long been used to predict the likelihood of pathogen invasion, to gauge the potential severity of an epidemic, and to set policy around interventions.…
Due to its ability to summarise 'real-time' epidemic behaviour, the time-dependent reproduction number, Rt, is a useful metric for tracking pathogen transmission and quantifying the effects of interventions during infectious disease…
Compartmental epidemic models with dynamics that evolve over a graph network have gained considerable importance in recent years but analysis of these models is in general difficult due to their complexity. In this paper, we develop two…