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Given a stable L\'{e}vy process $X=(X_t)_{0\le t\le T}$ of index $\alpha\in(1,2)$ with no negative jumps, and letting $S_t=\sup_{0\le s\le t}X_s$ denote its running supremum for $t\in [0,T]$, we consider the optimal prediction problem…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-10 Violetta Bernyk , Robert C. Dalang , Goran Peskir

We provide a characterization of an optimal stopping time for a class of finite horizon time-inconsistent optimal stopping problems (OSPs) of mean-field type, adapted to the Brownian filtration, including those related to mean-field…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-20 Boualem Djehiche , Mattia Martini

In this paper we present a new verification theorem for optimal stopping problems for Hunt processes. The approach is based on the Fukushima-Dynkin formula, and its advantage is that it allows us to verify that a given function is the value…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-09-04 Achref Bachouch , Olfa Draouil , Bernt Øksendal

We consider the optimal prediction problem of stopping a spectrally negative L\'evy process as close as possible to a given distance $b \geq 0$ from its ultimate supremum, under a squared error penalty function. Under some mild conditions,…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-08-04 Mónica B. Carvajal Pinto , Kees van Schaik

We establish a systematic solution method for optimal stopping problems of spectrally negative L\'evy processes. Our approach relies essentially on the potential theory, in particular the Riesz decomposition and the maximum principle. Using…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-25 Masahiko Egami , Tomohiro Koike

This paper attempts to study the optimal stopping time for semi-Markov processes (SMPs) under the discount optimization criteria with unbounded cost rates. In our work, we introduce an explicit construction of the equivalent semi-Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-05 Fang Chen , Xianping Guo , Zhong-Wei Liao

We consider a non-Markovian optimal stopping problem on finite horizon. We prove that the value process can be represented by means of a backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE), defined on an enlarged probability space, containing…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-02-20 Marco Fuhrman , Huyên Pham , Federica Zeni

Motivated by the industry practice of pairs trading, we study the optimal timing strategies for trading a mean-reverting price spread. An optimal double stopping problem is formulated to analyze the timing to start and subsequently…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2015-05-15 Tim Leung , Xin Li

This paper is dedicated to the investigation of a new numerical method to approximate the optimal stopping problem for a discrete-time continuous state space Markov chain under partial observations. It is based on a two-step discretization…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-02-16 Benoîte de Saporta , François Dufour , Christophe Nivot

Considering a real-valued diffusion, a real-valued reward function and a positive discount rate, we provide an algorithm to solve the optimal stopping problem consisting in finding the optimal expected discounted reward and the optimal…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-09-24 Fabián Crocce , Ernesto Mordecki

The problem of stopping a Brownian bridge with an unknown pinning point to maximise the expected value at the stopping time is studied. A few general properties, such as continuity and various bounds of the value function, are established.…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-17 Erik Ekström , Juozas Vaicenavicius

We study a Markov decision problem in which the state space is the set of finite marked point configurations in the plane, the actions represent thinnings, the reward is proportional to the mark sum which is discounted over time, and the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-08 M. N. M. van Lieshout

We define a class of reflected backward stochastic differential equation (RBSDE) driven by a marked point process (MPP) and a Brownian motion, where the solution is constrained to stay above a given c\`adl\`ag process. The MPP is only…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-28 Nahuel Foresta

We propose a novel group of Gaussian Process based algorithms for fast approximate optimal stopping of time series with specific applications to financial markets. We show that structural properties commonly exhibited by financial time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-11 Kshama Dwarakanath , Danial Dervovic , Peyman Tavallali , Svitlana S Vyetrenko , Tucker Balch

We solve an optimal stopping problem where the underlying diffusion is Brownian motion on $\bf R$ with a positive drift changing at zero. It is assumed that the drift $\mu_1$ on the negative side is smaller than the drift $\mu_2$ on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-15 Ernesto Mordecki , Paavo Salminen

Mathematically, the execution of an American-style financial derivative is commonly reduced to solving an optimal stopping problem. Breaking the general assumption that the knowledge of the holder is restricted to the price history of the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-08-25 Bernardo D'Auria , Eduardo García-Portugués , Abel Guada

We develop an approach for solving one-sided optimal stopping problems in discrete time for general underlying Markov processes on the real line. The main idea is to transform the problem into an auxiliary problem for the ladder height…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-29 Sören Christensen , Albrecht Irle

This paper investigates the random horizon optimal stopping problem for measure-valued piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs). This is motivated by population dynamics applications, when one wants to monitor some characteristics…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-14 Bertrand Cloez , Benoîte de Saporta , Maud Joubaud

In this paper we continue our investigation of the potential theory of Markov processes with jump kernels decaying at the boundary. To be more precise, we consider processes in ${\mathbb R}^d_+$ with jump kernels of the form ${\mathcal…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-27 Panki Kim , Renming Song , Zoran Vondraček

This paper studies the problem of optimally extracting nonrenewable natural resources. Taking into account the fact that the market values of the main natural resources i.e. oil, natural gas, copper,..., etc, fluctuate randomly following…

General Economics · Economics 2018-07-23 Moustapha Pemy