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Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has increasing importance in building robust high-performance and generalizable materials property prediction models. It can also be used in active learning to train better models by focusing on getting new…

Materials Science · Physics 2022-11-14 Daniel Varivoda , Rongzhi Dong , Sadman Sadeed Omee , Jianjun Hu

The automated real-time recognition of unexpected situations plays a crucial role in the safety of autonomous vehicles, especially in unsupported and unpredictable scenarios. This paper evaluates different Bayesian uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Ruben Grewal , Paolo Tonella , Andrea Stocco

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is crucial for ensuring the reliability of machine learning models deployed in real-world autonomous systems. However, existing approaches typically quantify task-level output prediction uncertainty without…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-27 Luke Chen , Junyao Wang , Trier Mortlock , Pramod Khargonekar , Mohammad Abdullah Al Faruque

Current methods commonly used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning (DL) models utilize Bayesian methods which are computationally expensive and time-consuming. In this paper, we provide a detailed study of UQ based on…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2025-01-13 Ayush Khot , Xiwei Wang , Avik Roy , Volodymyr Kindratenko , Mark S. Neubauer

How can we quantify uncertainty if our favorite computational tool - be it a numerical, a statistical, or a machine learning approach, or just any computer model - provides single-valued output only? In this article, we introduce the Easy…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-25 Eva-Maria Walz , Alexander Henzi , Johanna Ziegel , Tilmann Gneiting

Trustworthy depression prediction based on deep learning, incorporating both predictive reliability and algorithmic fairness across diverse demographic groups, is crucial for clinical application. Recently, achieving reliable depression…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Yonghong Li , Zheng Zhang , Xiuzhuang Zhou

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is pivotal in enhancing the robustness, reliability, and interpretability of Machine Learning (ML) systems for healthcare, optimizing resources and improving patient care. Despite the emergence of ML-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-07 L. Julián Lechuga López , Shaza Elsharief , Dhiyaa Al Jorf , Firas Darwish , Congbo Ma , Farah E. Shamout

We propose a method for training a deterministic deep model that can find and reject out of distribution data points at test time with a single forward pass. Our approach, deterministic uncertainty quantification (DUQ), builds upon ideas of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-30 Joost van Amersfoort , Lewis Smith , Yee Whye Teh , Yarin Gal

Uncertainty-aware deep learning (DL) models recently gained attention in fault diagnosis as a way to promote the reliable detection of faults when out-of-distribution (OOD) data arise from unseen faults (epistemic uncertainty) or the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Reza Jalayer , Masoud Jalayer , Andrea Mor , Carlotta Orsenigo , Carlo Vercellis

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for ensuring trustworthy downstream use of large language models, especially when they are deployed in decision-support and other knowledge-intensive applications. Model certainty can be…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Autumn Toney-Wails , Ryan Wails

Uncertainty quantification is at the core of the reliability and robustness of machine learning. In this paper, we provide a theoretical framework to dissect the uncertainty, especially the \textit{epistemic} component, in deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Haofeng Zhang

Despite the popularity of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), the problem of uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CNN has been largely overlooked. Lack of efficient UQ tools severely limits the application of CNN in certain areas, such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Hongfei Du , Emre Barut , Fang Jin

Deep Learning (DL) methods have been transforming computer vision with innovative adaptations to other domains including climate change. For DL to pervade Science and Engineering (S&E) applications where risk management is a core component,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-25 Thomas Vandal , Evan Kodra , Jennifer Dy , Sangram Ganguly , Ramakrishna Nemani , Auroop R. Ganguly

Time-series with volatility clustering pose a unique challenge to uncertainty quantification (UQ) for returns forecasts. Methods for UQ such as Deep Evidential regression offer a simple way of quantifying return forecast uncertainty without…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-20 Steven Y. K. Wong , Jennifer S. K. Chan , Lamiae Azizi

Increasingly high-stakes decisions are made using neural networks in order to make predictions. Specifically, meteorologists and hedge funds apply these techniques to time series data. When it comes to prediction, there are certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-14 Levente Foldesi , Matias Valdenegro-Toro

There is a significant need for principled uncertainty reasoning in machine learning systems as they are increasingly deployed in safety-critical domains. A new approach with uncertainty-aware regression-based neural networks (NNs), based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-21 Nis Meinert , Jakob Gawlikowski , Alexander Lavin

There are essentially three kinds of approaches to Uncertainty Quantification (UQ): (A) robust optimization, (B) Bayesian, (C) decision theory. Although (A) is robust, it is unfavorable with respect to accuracy and data assimilation. (B)…

Inverse problems play a key role in modern image/signal processing methods. However, since they are generally ill-conditioned or ill-posed due to lack of observations, their solutions may have significant intrinsic uncertainty. Analysing…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-09-09 Xiaohao Cai , Marcelo Pereyra , Jason D. McEwen

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques are frequently used to ascertain output variability in systems with parametric uncertainty. Traditional algorithms for UQ are either system-agnostic and slow (such as Monte Carlo) or fast with…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-19 Tuhin Sahai , Jose Miguel Pasini

Decomposing prediction uncertainty into aleatoric (irreducible) and epistemic (reducible) components is critical for the reliable deployment of machine learning systems. While the mutual information between the response variable and model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Anchit Jain , Stephen Bates