Related papers: Maximum likelihood estimation of log-affine models…

Arena-based evaluation is a fundamental yet significant evaluation paradigm for modern AI models, especially large language models (LLMs). Existing framework based on ELO rating system suffers from the inevitable instability problem due to…

State-space models have been used in many applications, including econometrics, engineering, medical research, etc. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the static parameter of general state-space models is not straightforward because…

Motivated by disease progression-related studies, we propose an estimation method for fitting general non-homogeneous multi-state Markov models. The proposal can handle many types of multi-state processes, with several states and various…

Analyses in high energy physics aim to put the Standard Model---the commonly accepted theory---to test. For convincing conclusions, analysis methods are needed which offer an unambiguous comparison between data and theory while allowing…

This paper considers the efficient estimation of copula-based semiparametric strictly stationary Markov models. These models are characterized by nonparametric invariant (one-dimensional marginal) distributions and parametric bivariate…

We present both offline and online maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) techniques for inferring the static parameters of a multiple target tracking (MTT) model with linear Gaussian dynamics. We present the batch and online versions of the…

We investigate the optimization landscape of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for the Cavender-Farris-Neyman (CFN) model, a two-state latent tree model fundamental to statistical phylogenetics and the ferromagnetic Ising model. Although…

This paper studies task adaptive pre-trained model selection, an underexplored problem of assessing pre-trained models for the target task and select best ones from the model zoo \emph{without fine-tuning}. A few pilot works addressed the…

In this work, we revisit the estimation of the model parameters of a Weibull distribution based on iid observations, using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method which does not yield closed expressions of the estimators. Among other…

We consider the problem of estimating the distribution function, the density and the hazard rate of the (unobservable) event time in the current status model. A well studied and natural nonparametric estimator for the distribution function…

In the Admixture Model, the probability of an individual having a certain number of alleles at a specific marker depends on the allele frequencies in $K$ ancestral populations and the fraction of the individual's genome originating from…

Finite state space hidden Markov models are flexible tools to model phenomena with complex time dependencies: any process distribution can be approximated by a hidden Markov model with enough hidden states.We consider the problem of…

Unlike the commonly used parametric regression models such as mixed models, that can easily violate the required statistical assumptions and result in invalid statistical inference, target maximum likelihood estimation allows more realistic…

This paper considers an extension of the multivariate symmetric Laplace distribution to matrix variate case. The symmetric Laplace distribution is a scale mixture of normal distribution. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of the…

The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is routinely used for the maximum likelihood estimation in the latent class analysis. However, the EM algorithm comes with no guarantees of reaching the global optimum. We study the geometry of…

Generalized linear models play an essential role in a wide variety of statistical applications. This paper discusses an approximation of the likelihood in these models that can greatly facilitate computation. The basic idea is to replace a…

We consider the classical estimation problem of an unknown drift parameter within classes of nondegenerate diffusion processes. Using rough path theory (in the sense of T. Lyons), we analyze the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) with…

Time-homogeneous Markov chains are often used as disease progression models in studies of cost-effectiveness and optimal decision-making. Maximum likelihood estimation of these models can be challenging when data are collected at a time…

Consider an $(L,1)$ random walk in an i.i.d. random environment, whose environment involves certain parameter. We get the maximum likelihood estimator(MLE) of the environment parameter which can be written as functionals of a multitype…

A discrete statistical model is a subset of a probability simplex. Its maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is a retraction from that simplex onto the model. We characterize all models for which this retraction is a rational function. This is…