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Counterfactual reasoning aims at answering contrary-to-fact questions like ``Would have Alice recovered had she taken aspirin?'' and corresponds to the most fine-grained layer of causation. Critically, while many counterfactual statements…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Lucas de Lara

We present a probabilistic framework for studying adversarial attacks on discrete data. Based on this framework, we derive a perturbation-based method, Greedy Attack, and a scalable learning-based method, Gumbel Attack, that illustrate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-01 Puyudi Yang , Jianbo Chen , Cho-Jui Hsieh , Jane-Ling Wang , Michael I. Jordan

The wave of pre-training language models has been continuously improving the quality of the machine-generated conversations, however, some of the generated responses still suffer from excessive repetition, sometimes repeating words from…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-12-17 Yadong Xi , Jiashu Pu , Xiaoxi Mao

Current end-to-end neural conversation models inherently lack the flexibility to impose semantic control in the response generation process, often resulting in uninteresting responses. Attempts to boost informativeness alone come at the…

Counterfactual reasoning is widely recognized as one of the most challenging and intricate aspects of causality in artificial intelligence. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of large language models (LLMs) in counterfactual…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Yuefei Chen , Vivek K. Singh , Jing Ma , Ruixiang Tang

The counterfactual token generation has been limited to perturbing only a single token in texts that are generally short and single sentences. These tokens are often associated with one of many sensitive attributes. With limited…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-02-10 Pranay Lohia

Counterfactual explanations are viewed as an effective way to explain machine learning predictions. This interest is reflected by a relatively young literature with already dozens of algorithms aiming to generate such explanations. These…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-05 Raphael Mazzine , David Martens

Significant research efforts are currently being dedicated to non-intrusive quality and intelligibility assessment, especially given how it enables curation of large scale datasets of in-the-wild speech data. However, with the increasing…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-27 Danilo de Oliveira , Tal Peer , Jonas Rochdi , Timo Gerkmann

Interpretability research on large language models (LLMs) has yielded important insights into model behaviour, yet recurring pitfalls persist: findings that do not generalise, and causal interpretations that outrun the evidence. Our…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-20 Shruti Joshi , Aaron Mueller , David Klindt , Wieland Brendel , Patrik Reizinger , Dhanya Sridhar

Numerous decision-making tasks require estimating causal effects under interventions on different parts of a system. As practitioners consider using large language models (LLMs) to automate decisions, studying their causal reasoning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Tejas Kasetty , Divyat Mahajan , Gintare Karolina Dziugaite , Alexandre Drouin , Dhanya Sridhar

Counterfactual explanations aim to enhance model transparency by showing how inputs can be minimally altered to change predictions. For multivariate time series, existing methods often generate counterfactuals that are invalid, implausible,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Sarah Seifi , Anass Ibrahimi , Tobias Sukianto , Cecilia Carbonelli , Lorenzo Servadei , Robert Wille

Counterfactual inference is a powerful tool, capable of solving challenging problems in high-profile sectors. To perform counterfactual inference, one requires knowledge of the underlying causal mechanisms. However, causal mechanisms cannot…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-23 Athanasios Vlontzos , Bernhard Kainz , Ciaran M. Gilligan-Lee

Explainable machine learning has attracted much interest in the community where the stakes are high. Counterfactual explanations methods have become an important tool in explaining a black-box model. The recent advances have leveraged the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Wei Zhang , Brian Barr , John Paisley

Generative models reliant on sequential autoregression have been at the forefront of language generation for an extensive period, particularly following the introduction of widely acclaimed transformers. Despite its excellent performance,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-21 Yaguang Li , Xin Chen

We introduce new inference procedures for counterfactual and synthetic control methods for policy evaluation. We recast the causal inference problem as a counterfactual prediction and a structural breaks testing problem. This allows us to…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-26 Victor Chernozhukov , Kaspar Wüthrich , Yinchu Zhu

We study counterfactual identifiability in causal models with bijective generation mechanisms (BGM), a class that generalizes several widely-used causal models in the literature. We establish their counterfactual identifiability for three…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-08 Arash Nasr-Esfahany , Mohammad Alizadeh , Devavrat Shah

Method validation and study design in causal inference rely on synthetic data with known counterfactuals. Existing simulators trade off distributional realism, the ability to capture mixed-type and multimodal tabular data, against causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-05 Qi Zhang , Harsh Parikh , Ashley Naimi , Razieh Nabi , Christopher Kim , Timothy Lash

The linear subspace hypothesis (Bolukbasi et al., 2016) states that, in a language model's representation space, all information about a concept such as verbal number is encoded in a linear subspace. Prior work has relied on auxiliary…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-27 Clément Guerner , Tianyu Liu , Anej Svete , Alexander Warstadt , Ryan Cotterell

Generative models for counterfactual outcomes face two key sources of bias. Confounding bias arises when approaches fail to account for systematic differences between those who receive the intervention and those who do not. Misspecification…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-23 Alex Luedtke , Kenji Fukumizu

Answering counterfactual queries has important applications such as explainability, robustness, and fairness but is challenging when the causal variables are unobserved and the observations are non-linear mixtures of these latent variables,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-16 Zeyu Zhou , Ruqi Bai , Sean Kulinski , Murat Kocaoglu , David I. Inouye