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Related papers: Variational Bayes Portfolio Construction

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Stochastic algorithms are among the best for solving computationally hard search and reasoning problems. The runtime of such procedures is characterized by a random variable. Different algorithms give rise to different probability…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Carla P. Gomes , Bart Selman

A new framework for portfolio diversification is introduced which goes beyond the classical mean-variance approach and portfolio allocation strategies such as risk parity. It is based on a novel concept called portfolio dimensionality that…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-09-23 Mathias Barkhagen , Brian Fleming , Sergio Garcia Quiles , Jacek Gondzio , Joerg Kalcsics , Jens Kroeske , Sotirios Sabanis , Arne Staal

We consider a variation on the classical finance problem of optimal portfolio design. In our setting, a large population of consumers is drawn from some distribution over risk tolerances, and each consumer must be assigned to a portfolio of…

Stock price prediction is a challenging task and a lot of propositions exist in the literature in this area. Portfolio construction is a process of choosing a group of stocks and investing in them optimally to maximize the return while…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-01-17 Jaydip Sen , Ashwin Kumar R S , Geetha Joseph , Kaushik Muthukrishnan , Koushik Tulasi , Praveen Varukolu

Bayesian optimization is a sample-efficient approach to global optimization that relies on theoretically motivated value heuristics (acquisition functions) to guide its search process. Fully maximizing acquisition functions produces the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-04 James T. Wilson , Frank Hutter , Marc Peter Deisenroth

This paper considers the finite horizon portfolio rebalancing problem in terms of mean-variance optimization, where decisions are made based on current information on asset returns and transaction costs. The study's novelty is that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-21 Qingliang Fan , Marcelo C. Medeiros , Hanming Yang , Songshan Yang

This paper considers mean-variance optimization under uncertainty, specifically when one desires a sparsified set of optimal portfolio weights. From the standpoint of a Bayesian investor, our approach produces a small portfolio from many…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-10-05 David Puelz , P. Richard Hahn , Carlos M. Carvalho

In this paper, a new way to integrate volatility information for estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) of a portfolio is suggested. The new method is developed from the perspective of Bayesian statistics and it…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-05-04 Taras Bodnar , Vilhelm Niklasson , Erik Thorsén

A framework is presented for fitting inverse problem models via variational Bayes approximations. This methodology guarantees flexibility to statistical model specification for a broad range of applications, good accuracy and reduced model…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-05 Luca Maestrini , Robert G. Aykroyd , Matt P. Wand

Data clustering, including problems such as finding network communities, can be put into a systematic framework by means of a Bayesian approach. The application of Bayesian approaches to real problems can be, however, quite challenging. In…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2008-09-28 Alexei Vazquez

Much recent research has been conducted in the area of Bayesian learning, particularly with regard to the optimization of hyper-parameters via Gaussian process regression. The methodologies rely chiefly on the method of maximizing the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-05-13 James Brofos

We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis problem to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Kaoru Irie , Mike West

The Markov Decision Process (MDP) is a popular framework for sequential decision-making problems, and uncertainty quantification is an essential component of it to learn optimal decision-making strategies. In particular, a Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-06 Jiaqi Guo , Chon Wai Ho , Sumeetpal S. Singh

Bayesian methods have proved powerful in many applications for the inference of model parameters from data. These methods are based on Bayes' theorem, which itself is deceptively simple. However, in practice the computations required are…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-10 Michael A. Chappell , Mark W. Woolrich

This paper studies the problem of globally optimizing a variable of interest that is part of a causal model in which a sequence of interventions can be performed. This problem arises in biology, operational research, communications and,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-27 Virginia Aglietti , Xiaoyu Lu , Andrei Paleyes , Javier González

In finance industry portfolio construction deals with how to divide the investors' wealth across an asset-classes' menu in order to maximize the investors' gain. Main approaches in use at the present are based on variations of the classical…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2009-07-21 Giordano Pola , Gianni Pola

Model comparison is the cornerstone of theoretical progress in psychological research. Common practice overwhelmingly relies on tools that evaluate competing models by balancing in-sample descriptive adequacy against model flexibility, with…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-11 Viet-Hung Dao , David Gunawan , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Robert Kohn , Guy E. Hawkins , Scott D. Brown

Portfolio optimization involves selecting asset weights to minimize a risk-reward objective, such as the portfolio variance in the classical minimum-variance framework. Sparse portfolio selection extends this by imposing a cardinality…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-16 Sarat Moka , Matias Quiroz , Vali Asimit , Samuel Muller

This paper presents how the most recent improvements made on covariance matrix estimation and model order selection can be applied to the portfolio optimisation problem. The particular case of the Maximum Variety Portfolio is treated but…

Applications · Statistics 2018-04-03 Emmanuelle Jay , Eugénie Terreaux , Jean-Philippe Ovarlez , Frédéric Pascal

This article develops the theory of risk budgeting portfolios, when we would like to impose weight constraints. It appears that the mathematical problem is more complex than the traditional risk budgeting problem. The formulation of the…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-02-18 Jean-Charles Richard , Thierry Roncalli