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Obtaining reliable estimates of conditional covariance matrices is an important task of heteroskedastic multivariate time series. In portfolio optimization and financial risk management, it is crucial to provide measures of uncertainty and…
The paper provides a parametrization of Vector Autoregression (VAR) that enables one to look at the parameters associated with unit root dynamics and those associated with stable dynamics separately. The task is achieved via a novel…
We propose a novel framework for analyzing multivariate time series (MTS) data by integrating non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) with vector autoregression (VAR). Termed NMF-VAR, this method models the coefficient matrix of NMF as a…
Motivated by Tucker tensor decomposition, this paper imposes low-rank structures to the column and row spaces of coefficient matrices in a multivariate infinite-order vector autoregression (VAR), which leads to a supervised factor model…
We consider continuous-time models with a large panel of moment conditions, where the structural parameter depends on a set of characteristics, whose effects are of interest. The leading example is the linear factor model in financial…
High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models have numerous applications in fields such as econometrics, biology, climatology, among others. While prior research has mainly focused on linear VAR models, these approaches can be…
Federated learning is one popular paradigm to train a joint model in a distributed, privacy-preserving environment. But partial annotations pose an obstacle meaning that categories of labels are heterogeneous over clients. We propose to…
Using a semi-structural approach, the paper identifies how heterogeneity and financial frictions affect the transmission of aggregate shocks. Approximating a heterogeneous agent model around the representative agent allocation can…
We reinterpret Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models as iterative refinement models to identify which design choices drive their quality-efficiency trade-off. Instead of treating VAR only as next-scale autoregression, we formalise it as a…
The paper proposes a time-varying parameter global vector autoregressive (TVP-GVAR) framework for predicting and analysing developed region economic variables. We want to provide an easily accessible approach for the economy application…
Machine learning has revitalized causal inference by combining flexible models and principled estimators, yet robust benchmarking and evaluation remain challenging with real-world data. In this work, we introduce frengression, a deep…
Here we dispel the lingering myth that Partial Directed Coherence is a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Modelling dependent concept. In fact, our examples show that it is spectral factorization that lies at its heart, for which VAR modelling is…
We consider a sparse high-dimensional varying coefficients model with random effects, a flexible linear model allowing covariates and coefficients to have a functional dependence with time. For each individual, we observe discretely sampled…
The R package BigVAR allows for the simultaneous estimation of high-dimensional time series by applying structured penalties to the conventional vector autoregression (VAR) and vector autoregression with exogenous variables (VARX)…
This paper proposes a Vector Autoregression augmented with nonlinear factors that are modeled nonparametrically using regression trees. There are four main advantages of our model. First, modeling potential nonlinearities nonparametrically…
The paper considers linear regression problems where the number of predictor variables is possibly larger than the sample size. The basic motivation of the study is to combine the points of view of model selection and functional regression…
The Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model is fundamental to the study of multivariate time series. Although VAR models are intensively investigated by many researchers, practitioners often show more interest in analyzing VARX models that…
Understanding the dynamics of functional brain connectivity patterns using noninvasive neuroimaging techniques is an important focus in human neuroscience. Vector autoregressive (VAR) processes and Granger causality analysis (GCA) have been…
The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a popular deep latent variable model used to analyse high-dimensional datasets by learning a low-dimensional latent representation of the data. It simultaneously learns a generative model and an…
In this paper, we propose a Network-Weighted Functional Regression (NWFR) model, an extension of Spatially Weighted Functional Regression (SWFR) to functional data defined on network-structured settings. To asses predictive uncertainity, we…