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Inferring the parameters of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) from noisy observations is an important problem in many scientific fields. Currently, most parameter estimation methods that bypass numerical integration tend to rely on…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-25 Mingwei Xu , Samuel W. K. Wong , Peijun Sang

Parameter estimation for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) plays a fundamental role in the analysis of dynamical systems. Generally lacking closed-form solutions, ODEs are traditionally approximated using deterministic solvers.…

Computation · Statistics 2025-06-30 Mohan Wu , Martin Lysy

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

Applications · Statistics 2022-08-08 Taylor R. Brown

Bayesian model averaging enables one to combine the disparate predictions of a number of models in a coherent fashion, leading to superior predictive performance. The improvement in performance arises from averaging models that make…

Applications · Statistics 2011-08-01 Qingzhao Yu , Steven N. MacEachern , Mario Peruggia

Probabilistic programming methods have revolutionised Bayesian inference, making it easier than ever for practitioners to perform Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo sampling from non-conjugate posterior distributions. Here we focus on Stan, arguably…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-10 Clemens Pichler , Jack Jewson , Alejandra Avalos-Pacheco

Many scientific problems focus on observed patterns of change or on how to design a system to achieve particular dynamics. Those problems often require fitting differential equation models to target trajectories. Fitting such models can be…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2023-12-27 Steven A. Frank

Probabilistic ordinary differential equation (ODE) solvers have been introduced over the past decade as uncertainty-aware numerical integrators. They typically proceed by assuming a functional prior to the ODE solution, which is then…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-03-25 Yvann Le Fay , Simo Särkkä , Adrien Corenflos

Forecasting the hospitalizations caused by the Influenza virus is vital for public health planning so that hospitals can be better prepared for an influx of patients. Many forecasting methods have been used in real-time during the Influenza…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Majd Al Aawar , Ajitesh Srivastava

Approximate Bayesian computation is a statistical framework that uses numerical simulations to calibrate and compare models. Instead of computing likelihood functions, Approximate Bayesian computation relies on numerical simulations, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-19 Louisiane Lemaire , Flora Jay , I-Hung Lee , Katalin Csilléry , Michael G. B. Blum

There has been a tremendous methodological development of Bayes factors for hypothesis testing in the social and behavioral sciences, and related fields. This development is due to the flexibility of the Bayes factor for testing multiple…

Clinical prediction models provide a prediction (e.g., estimated risk) for each individual, typically expressed as a point estimate derived from a deterministic function such as a logistic regression equation. Such 'plug-in' predictions…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-20 Mohsen Sadatsafavi , Richard D. Riley

Objective: To provide guidance for the use of the main functions available in R for performing post hoc Bayesian analysis of a randomized clinical trial with a survival endpoint using proportional hazard models. Study Design and Setting:…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-10 Lucie Biard , Anne Bergeron , Sylvie Chevret

Ordinal user-provided ratings across multiple items are frequently encountered in both scientific and commercial applications. Whilst recommender systems are known to do well on these type of data from a predictive point of view, their…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-05 Sjoerd Hermes

Spatial survival analysis has received a great deal of attention over the last 20 years due to the important role that geographical information can play in predicting survival. This paper provides an introduction to a set of programs for…

Computation · Statistics 2018-04-25 Haiming Zhou , Timothy Hanson , Jiajia Zhang

Fairness in artificial intelligence (AI) prediction models is increasingly emphasized to support responsible adoption in high-stakes domains such as health care and criminal justice. Guidelines and implementation frameworks highlight the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-14 Yilin Ning , Yian Ma , Mingxuan Liu , Xin Li , Nan Liu

Bayesian paradigm takes advantage of well fitting complicated survival models and feasible computing in survival analysis owing to the superiority in tackling the complex censoring scheme, compared with the frequentist paradigm. In this…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-10 Chong Zhong , Zhihua Ma , Junshan Shen , Catherine Liu

This is a vignette for the R package eggCounts version 2.0. The package implements a suite of Bayesian hierarchical models dealing with faecal egg count reductions. The models are designed for a variety of practical situations, including…

Computation · Statistics 2022-02-07 Craig Wang , Reinhard Furrer

BioStatFlow is a free web application, useful to facilitate the performance of statistical analyses of "omics", including metabolomics, data using R packages. It is a fast and easy on-line tool for biologists who are not experts in…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2020-07-10 Daniel Jacob , Catherine Deborde , Annick Moing

This paper presents, evaluates, and discusses a new software tool to automatically build Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) from ordinary differential equations (ODEs) entered by the user. The DBNs generated from ODE models can handle both…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-15 Hamda Ajmal , Michael Madden , Catherine Enright

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are increasingly used in longitudinal data analysis, compartmental models, growth modelling, and other applications in a number of disciplines. Parameter estimation, however, currently requires…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-12 Oscar García