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This paper proposes a straightforward algorithm to carry out inference in large time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) with mixture innovation components for each coefficient in the system. We significantly decrease the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-07 Florian Huber , Gregor Kastner , Martin Feldkircher

Time-varying linear state-space models are powerful tools for obtaining mathematically interpretable representations of neural signals. For example, switching and decomposed models describe complex systems using latent variables that evolve…

This paper offers a new approach for estimating and forecasting the volatility of financial time series. No assumption is made about the parametric form of the processes. On the contrary, we only suppose that the volatility can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Danilo Mercurio , Vladimir Spokoiny

The Heston stochastic volatility model is a standard model for valuing financial derivatives, since it can be calibrated using semi-analytical formulas and captures the most basic structure of the market for financial derivatives with…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2019-01-29 Daniel Guterding , Wolfram Boenkost

The Gaussian process latent variable model (GP-LVM) is a popular approach to non-linear probabilistic dimensionality reduction. One design choice for the model is the number of latent variables. We present a spike and slab prior for the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-05-12 Zhenwen Dai , James Hensman , Neil Lawrence

In this paper, we consider up-to-date and classical Finite Element (FE) stabilized methods for time-dependent incompressible flows. All studied methods belong to the Variational MultiScale (VMS) framework. So, different realizations of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-04-10 Naveed Ahmed , Samuele Rubino

Adaptive lattice Boltzmann methods (LBMs) are based on velocity discretizations that self-adjust to local macroscopic conditions such as velocity and temperature. While this feature improves the accuracy and the stability of LBMs for large…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-11-04 C. Coreixas , J. Latt

This paper presents a tractable tube-based robust data-driven predictive control scheme that uses only a single finite noisy input-state trajectory of an unknown discrete-time linear time-invariant (LTI) system. A simplex constraint is…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-17 Chi Wang , David Angeli

We consider the problem of statistical inference when the data is collected via a Thompson Sampling-type algorithm. While Thompson Sampling (TS) is known to be both asymptotically optimal and empirically effective, its adaptive sampling…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-17 Budhaditya Halder , Shubhayan Pan , Koulik Khamaru

The Lagrangian-Averaged Navier-Stokes alpha (LANS-alpha) model is a turbulence parameterization that has been shown to capture some of the most important features of high resolution ocean modeling at lower resolution. Simulations using…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2009-11-13 Mark R. Petersen

We propose a multi-scale stochastic volatility model in which a fast mean-reverting factor of volatility is built on top of the Heston stochastic volatility model. A singular pertubative expansion is then used to obtain an approximation for…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2012-05-15 Jean-Pierre Fouque , Matthew Lorig

In this paper, a new approach for solving the problems of pricing and hedging derivatives is introduced in a general frictionless market setting. The method is applicable even in cases where an equivalent local martingale measure fails to…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-18 Huy N. Chau , Miklos Rasonyi

Financial returns are known to exhibit heavy tails, volatility clustering and abrupt jumps that are poorly captured by classical diffusion models. Advances in machine learning have enabled highly flexible functional forms for conditional…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-03 Ziyao Wang , Svetlozar T Rachev

While local basis function (LBF) estimation algorithms, commonly used for identifying/tracking systems with time-varying parameters, demonstrate good performance under the assumption of normally distributed measurement noise, the estimation…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-01 Maciej Niedźwiecki , Artur Gańcza , Wojciech Żuławiński , Agnieszka Wyłomańska

Variational Bayes methods are a potential scalable estimation approach for state space models. However, existing methods are inaccurate or computationally infeasible for many state space models. This paper proposes a variational…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-05 Rubén Loaiza-Maya , Didier Nibbering

We develop a mixed least squares Monte Carlo-partial differential equation (LSMC-PDE) method for pricing Bermudan style options on assets whose volatility is stochastic. The algorithm is formulated for an arbitrary number of assets and…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-06-02 David Farahany , Kenneth Jackson , Sebastian Jaimungal

We propose new nonparametric estimators of the integrated volatility of an It\^{o} semimartingale observed at discrete times on a fixed time interval with mesh of the observation grid shrinking to zero. The proposed estimators achieve the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-30 Jean Jacod , Viktor Todorov

We study risk-sharing equilibria with general convex costs on the agents' trading rates. For an infinite-horizon model with linear state dynamics and exogenous volatilities, we prove that the equilibrium returns mean-revert around their…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-16 Lukas Gonon , Johannes Muhle-Karbe , Xiaofei Shi

In this paper we discuss the basket options valuation for a jump-diffusion model. The underlying asset prices follow some correlated local volatility diffusion processes with systematic jumps. We derive a forward partial integral…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2010-03-10 Guoping Xu , Harry Zheng

This article presents a generic hybrid numerical method to price a wide range of options on one or several assets, as well as assets with stochastic drift or volatility. In particular for equity and interest rate hybrid with local…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-11 Olivier Deloire , Louis Roth