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Estimating how a treatment affects different individuals, known as heterogeneous treatment effect estimation, is an important problem in empirical sciences. In the last few years, there has been a considerable interest in adapting machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-18 Christopher Tran , Keith Burghardt , Kristina Lerman , Elena Zheleva

In the causal adjustment setting, variable selection techniques based on either the outcome or treatment allocation model can result in the omission of confounders or the inclusion of spurious variables in the propensity score. We propose a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-06-06 Ashkan Ertefaie , Masoud Asgharian , David A. Stephens

Estimation and inference of treatment effects under unconfounded treatment assignments often suffer from bias and the `curse of dimensionality' due to the nonparametric estimation of nuisance parameters for high-dimensional confounders.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Zeqi Wu , Meilin Wang , Wei Huang , Zheng Zhang

Treatment effect heterogeneity is of a great concern when evaluating policy impact: "is the treatment Pareto-improving?", "what is the proportion of people who are better off under the treatment?", etc. However, even in the simple case of a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-18 Myungkou Shin

We consider the problem of estimating the effects of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome of interest from observational data in the absence of confounding by unmeasured factors. We provide a new estimator of the population average…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-04 James Robins , Mariela Sued , Quanhong Lei-Gomez , Andrea Rotnitzky

Individuals do not respond uniformly to treatments, events, or interventions. Sociologists routinely partition samples into subgroups to explore how the effects of treatments vary by covariates like race, gender, and socioeconomic status.…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2019-09-23 Jennie E. Brand , Jiahui Xu , Bernard Koch , Pablo Geraldo

Causal treatment effect estimation is a key problem that arises in a variety of real-world settings, from personalized medicine to governmental policy making. There has been a flurry of recent work in machine learning on estimating causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-22 Niki Kilbertus , Matt J. Kusner , Ricardo Silva

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. Unlike machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation for model selection as we do not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Divyat Mahajan , Ioannis Mitliagkas , Brady Neal , Vasilis Syrgkanis

This paper considers the practically important case of nonparametrically estimating heterogeneous average treatment effects that vary with a limited number of discrete and continuous covariates in a selection-on-observables framework where…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-08-26 Michael Zimmert , Michael Lechner

Estimating treatment effects for subgroups defined by post-treatment behavior (i.e., estimating causal effects in a principal stratification framework) can be technically challenging and heavily reliant on strong assumptions. We investigate…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-17 Luke Miratrix , Jane Furey , Avi Feller , Todd Grindal , Lindsay C. Page

Assessing the causal effects of interventions on ordinal outcomes is an important objective of many educational and behavioral studies. Under the potential outcomes framework, we can define causal effects as comparisons between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-06 Jiannan Lu , Peng Ding , Tirthankar Dasgupta

Causal inference from observational data requires assumptions. These assumptions range from measuring confounders to identifying instruments. Traditionally, causal inference assumptions have focused on estimation of effects for a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-04 Rajesh Ranganath , Adler Perotte

This study investigates the estimation and the statistical inference about Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs), which have garnered attention as a metric representing individualized causal effects. In our data-generating process,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-07 Masahiro Kato

Unobserved heterogeneous treatment effects have been emphasized in the recent policy evaluation literature (see e.g., Heckman and Vytlacil, 2005). This paper proposes a nonparametric test for unobserved heterogeneous treatment effects in a…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-08-17 Yu-Chin Hsu , Ta-Cheng Huang , Haiqing Xu

Assessing causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding is a challenging problem. Existing studies leveraged proxy variables or multiple treatments to adjust for the confounding bias. In particular, the latter approach attributes…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-17 Yong Wu , Mingzhou Liu , Jing Yan , Yanwei Fu , Shouyan Wang , Yizhou Wang , Xinwei Sun

The heterogeneous treatment effect plays a crucial role in precision medicine.There is evidence that real-world data, even subject to biases, can be employed as supplementary evidence for randomized clinical trials to improve the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-04 Guangcai Mao , Shu Yang , Xiaofei Wang

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Steve Yadlowsky , Hongseok Namkoong , Sanjay Basu , John Duchi , Lu Tian

In this paper, we extend the Riesz representation framework to causal inference under sample selection, where both treatment assignment and outcome observability are non-random. Formulating the problem in terms of a Riesz representer…

Estimation of individual treatment effects is commonly used as the basis for contextual decision making in fields such as healthcare, education, and economics. However, it is often sufficient for the decision maker to have estimates of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-13 Maggie Makar , Fredrik D. Johansson , John Guttag , David Sontag

Experimenters often collect baseline data to study heterogeneity. I propose the first valid confidence intervals for the VCATE, the treatment effect variance explained by observables. Conventional approaches yield incorrect coverage when…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-07 Alejandro Sanchez-Becerra
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