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Deep Markov models (DMM) are generative models that are scalable and expressive generalization of Markov models for representation, learning, and inference problems. However, the fundamental stochastic stability guarantees of such models…

Non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHHMM) are a subclass of dependent mixture models used for semi-supervised learning, where both transition probabilities between the latent states and mean parameter of the probability distribution of…

The ability to predict the intentions of people based solely on their visual actions is a skill only performed by humans and animals. The intelligence of current computer algorithms has not reached this level of complexity, but there are…

Stochastic variational inference for collapsed models has recently been successfully applied to large scale topic modelling. In this paper, we propose a stochastic collapsed variational inference algorithm in the sequential data setting.…

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are a ubiquitous tool to model time series data, and have been widely used in two main tasks of Automatic Music Transcription (AMT): note segmentation, i.e. identifying the played notes after a multi-pitch…

This paper intends to apply the Hidden Markov Model into stock market and and make predictions. Moreover, four different methods of improvement, which are GMM-HMM, XGB-HMM, GMM-HMM+LSTM and XGB-HMM+LSTM, will be discussed later with the…

We search for digital biomarkers from Parkinson's Disease by observing approximate repetitive patterns matching hypothesized step and stride periodic cycles. These observations were modeled as a cycle of hidden states with randomness…

Factorial Hidden Markov Models (FHMMs) are powerful models for sequential data but they do not scale well with long sequences. We propose a scalable inference and learning algorithm for FHMMs that draws on ideas from the stochastic…

Stock market forecasting is a classic problem that has been thoroughly investigated using machine learning and artificial neural network based tools and techniques. Interesting aspects of this problem include its time reliance as well as…

Various probabilistic time series forecasting models have sprung up and shown remarkably good performance. However, the choice of model highly relies on the characteristics of the input time series and the fixed distribution that the model…

The well-established methodology for the estimation of hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) as hidden Markov models (HMMs) with extended state spaces is further developed to incorporate covariate influences across all aspects of the state…

Recommender systems help users find relevant items of interest based on the past preferences of those users. In many domains, however, the tastes and preferences of users change over time due to a variety of factors and recommender systems…

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the…

We demonstrate the application of pattern recognition algorithms via hidden Markov models (HMM) for qubit readout. This scheme provides a state-path trajectory approach capable of detecting qubit state transitions and makes for a robust…

Motivated by Hubert's segmentation procedure we discuss the application of hidden Markov models (HMM) to the segmentation of hydrological and enviromental time series. We use a HMM algorithm which segments time series of several hundred…

We study the problem of topic modeling in corpora whose documents are organized in a multi-level hierarchy. We explore a parametric approach to this problem, assuming that the number of topics is known or can be estimated by…

Stochastic modelling is an essential component of the quantitative sciences, with hidden Markov models (HMMs) often playing a central role. Concurrently, the rise of quantum technologies promises a host of advantages in computational…

Due to its clustering and self-exciting properties, the Hawkes process has been used extensively in numerous fields ranging from sismology to finance. Since data is often aquired on regular time intervals, we propose a piece-wise constant…

Dropout represents a typical issue to be addressed when dealing with longitudinal studies. If the mechanism leading to missing information is non-ignorable, inference based on the observed data only may be severely biased. A frequent…

We introduce a non-parametric hierarchical Bayesian approach for open-ended 3D object categorization, named the Local Hierarchical Dirichlet Process (Local-HDP). This method allows an agent to learn independent topics for each category…