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In this paper we propose a new model for volatility fluctuations in financial time series. This model relies on a non-stationary gaussian process that exhibits aging behavior. It turns out that its properties, over any finite time interval,…
Volatilities, in high-dimensional panels of economic time series with a dynamic factor structure on the levels or returns, typically also admit a dynamic factor decomposition. We consider a two-stage dynamic factor model method recovering…
Financial markets exhibit temporal organization that is not fully captured by volatility measures or linear correlation structure. We study a null validated topological approach for quantifying market complexity and apply it to Bitcoin…
Estimating volatility from recent high frequency data, we revisit the question of the smoothness of the volatility process. Our main result is that log-volatility behaves essentially as a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst exponent H of…
We consider nonparametric estimation of mean regression and conditional variance (or volatility) functions in nonlinear stochastic regression models. Simultaneous confidence bands are constructed and the coverage probabilities are shown to…
We study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks by a model of returns using a semi-Markov approach. More precisely we assume that the intraday return are described by a discrete time homogeneous semi-Markov process and the…
We propose a stochastic process for stock movements that, with just one source of Brownian noise, has an instantaneous volatility that rises from a type of statistical feedback across many time scales. This results in a stationary…
Accurate volatility modelling is paramount for optimal risk management practices. One stylized feature of financial volatility that impacts the modelling process is long memory explored in this paper for alternative risk measures, observed…
We introduce a class of randomly time-changed fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility models and, using spectral theory and singular perturbation techniques, we derive an approximation for the prices of European options in this setting.…
This study investigates the short-term asymptotic behavior of the implied volatility surface (IVS), with a particular focus on the at-the-money (ATM) skew and curvature, which are key determinants of the IVS shape and whose are widely…
We introduce a new identification strategy for uncertainty shocks to explain macroeconomic volatility in financial markets. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) measures market expectations of future volatility, but…
We show how to price and replicate a variety of barrier-style claims written on the $\log$ price $X$ and quadratic variation $\langle X \rangle$ of a risky asset. Our framework assumes no arbitrage, frictionless markets and zero interest…
We propose a simple stochastic volatility model which is analytically tractable, very easy to simulate and which captures some relevant stylized facts of financial assets, including scaling properties. In particular, the model displays a…
This paper develops a three-dimensional decomposition of volatility memory into orthogonal components of level, shape, and tempo. The framework unifies regime-switching, fractional-integration, and business-time approaches within a single…
We give a detailed account of correlations between credit sector/quality and treasury curve factors, using the robust framework of the Barclays POINT Global Risk Model. Consistent with earlier studies, we find a strong negative correlation…
The paper studies a system of Hamilton-Jacobi equations, arising from a stochastic optimal debt management problem in an infinite time horizon with exponential discount, modeled as a noncooperative interaction between a borrower and a pool…
We examine how the most prevalent stochastic properties of key financial time series have been affected during the recent financial crises. In particular we focus on changes associated with the remarkable economic events of the last two…
This paper discusses a novel explanation for asymmetric volatility based on the anchoring behavioral pattern. Anchoring as a heuristic bias causes investors focusing on recent price changes and price levels, which two lead to a belief in…
I present the technique which can analyse some interest rate models: Constantinides-Ingersoll, CIR-model, geometric CIR and Geometric Brownian Motion. All these models have the unified structure of Whittaker function. The main focus of this…
In this paper, we establish sample path large and moderate deviation principles for log-price processes in Gaussian stochastic volatility models, and study the asymptotic behavior of exit probabilities, call pricing functions, and the…