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Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. We propose a new SMC algorithm to compute the expectation of additive functionals recursively.…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-12-27 Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet , Sumeetpal Singh

Bayesian inference, while foundational to probabilistic reasoning, is often hampered by the computational intractability of posterior distributions, particularly through the challenging evidence integral. Conventional approaches like Markov…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Di Zhang

Standard Markov chain Monte Carlo methods struggle to explore distributions that are concentrated in the neighbourhood of low-dimensional structures. These pathologies naturally occur in a number of situations. For example, they are common…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-02 Khai Xiang Au , Matthew M. Graham , Alexandre H. Thiery

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) detect low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) by looking for correlated deviations in pulse arrival times. Current Bayesian searches use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, which struggle to sample the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-03-08 Gabriel E. Freedman , Aaron D. Johnson , Rutger van Haasteren , Sarah J. Vigeland

Sequential Monte Carlo samplers represent a compelling approach to posterior inference in Bayesian models, due to being parallelisable and providing an unbiased estimate of the posterior normalising constant. In this work, we significantly…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-24 Samuel Duffield , Sumeetpal S. Singh

Federated learning performed by a decentralized networks of agents is becoming increasingly important with the prevalence of embedded software on autonomous devices. Bayesian approaches to learning benefit from offering more information as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-16 Vyacheslav Kungurtsev , Adam Cobb , Tara Javidi , Brian Jalaian

Leveraging the coherent exploration of Hamiltonian flow, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo produces computationally efficient Monte Carlo estimators, even with respect to complex and high-dimensional target distributions. When confronted with…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-06 M. J. Betancourt

We present a deep neural network (DNN) accelerated Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm called DeepHMC for the inference of binary neutron star systems. The HMC is a non-random walk sampler that uses background gradient information to…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-05-06 Jules Perret , Marc Aréne , Edward K. Porter

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers form an attractive alternative to MCMC for Bayesian computation. However, their performance depends strongly on the Markov kernels used to rejuvenate particles. We discuss how to calibrate automatically…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-13 Alexander Buchholz , Nicolas Chopin , Pierre E. Jacob

Bayesian inference is useful to obtain a predictive distribution with a small generalization error. However, since posterior distributions are rarely evaluated analytically, we employ the variational Bayesian inference or sampling method to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Yohei Saito , Shun Kimura , Koujin Takeda

One of the open challenges in quantum computing is to find meaningful and practical methods to leverage quantum computation to accelerate classical machine learning workflows. A ubiquitous problem in machine learning workflows is sampling…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-08-08 Owen Lockwood , Peter Weiss , Filip Aronshtein , Guillaume Verdon

We introduce a framework for inference in general state-space hidden Markov models (HMMs) under likelihood misspecification. In particular, we leverage the loss-theoretic perspective of Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) to define…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-22 Ayman Boustati , Ömer Deniz Akyildiz , Theodoros Damoulas , Adam M. Johansen

We propose a splitting Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (SHMC) algorithm, which can be computationally efficient when combined with the random mini-batch strategy. By splitting the potential energy into numerically nonstiff and stiff parts, one…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-06-23 Lei Li , Lin Liu , Yuzhou Peng

Bayesian inference in the physical sciences faces a fundamental challenge: the imperative for high-fidelity physical modeling often clashes with the intrinsic limitations of stochastic sampling algorithms. Complex, high-dimensional…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-04-09 Bo Liang , Chang Liu , Hanlin Song , Tianyu Zhao , Minghui Du , He Wang , Haohao Gu , Sensen He , Yuxiang Xu , Wei-Liang Qian , Li-e Qiang , Peng Xu , Ziren Luo , Mingming Sun

By leveraging the natural geometry of a smooth probabilistic system, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo yields computationally efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation. At least provided that the algorithm is sufficiently well-tuned. In this…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-05 Michael Betancourt

This paper introduces methodology for performing Bayesian inference sequentially on a sequence of posteriors on spaces of different dimensions. We show how this may be achieved through the use of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers (Del…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-02 Richard G Everitt , Richard Culliford , Felipe Medina-Aguayo , Daniel J Wilson

In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-23 Ajay Jasra , Amin Wu

In Bayesian inverse problems, one aims at characterizing the posterior distribution of a set of unknowns, given indirect measurements. For non-linear/non-Gaussian problems, analytic solutions are seldom available: Sequential Monte Carlo…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-26 Alessandro Viani , Adam M Johansen , Alberto Sorrentino

This technical report presents pseudo-code for a Riemannian manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (RMHMC) method to efficiently simulate samples from $N$-dimensional posterior distributions $p(x|y)$, where $x \in R^N$ is drawn from a Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-30 Ulrich Paquet , Marco Fraccaro

We consider a method for approximate inference in hidden Markov models (HMMs). The method circumvents the need to evaluate conditional densities of observations given the hidden states. It may be considered an instance of Approximate…

Computation · Statistics 2012-06-25 James S. Martin , Ajay Jasra , Sumeetpal S. Singh , Nick Whiteley , Emma McCoy