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Bursty dynamics characterizes systems that evolve through short active periods of several events, which are separated by long periods of inactivity. Systems with such temporal heterogeneities are not only found in nature but also include…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-12-19 Márton Karsai , Hang-Hyun Jo

Bursty dynamics is a common temporal property of various complex systems in Nature but it also characterises the dynamics of human actions and interactions. At the phenomenological level it is a feature of all systems that evolve…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-03-08 Márton Karsai , Hang-Hyun Jo , Kimmo Kaski

This work delves into presenting a probabilistic method for analyzing linear process data with weakly dependent innovations, focusing on detecting change-points in the mean and estimating its spectral density. We develop a test for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Ramkrishna Jyoti Samanta

Event detection in time series data is crucial in various domains, including finance, healthcare, cybersecurity, and science. Accurately identifying events in time series data is vital for making informed decisions, detecting anomalies, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-19 Menouar Azib , Benjamin Renard , Philippe Garnier , Vincent Génot , Nicolas André

Characterizing bursty temporal interaction patterns of temporal networks is crucial to investigate the evolution of temporal networks as well as various collective dynamics taking place in them. The temporal interaction patterns have been…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-07-31 Hang-Hyun Jo , Takayuki Hiraoka

We introduce PyChEst, a Python package which provides tools for the simultaneous estimation of multiple changepoints in the distribution of piece-wise stationary time series. The nonparametric algorithms implemented are provably consistent…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-21 Azadeh Khaleghi , Lukas Zierahn

Time-to-event (survival) analysis models the time until a pre-specified event occurs. When time is measured in discrete units or rounded into intervals, standard continuous-time models can yield biased estimators. In addition, the event of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-19 Tomer Meir , Rom Gutman , Malka Gorfine

Over the last few years, with the growth of time-series collecting and storing, there has been a great demand for tools and software for temporal data engineering and modeling. This paper presents a generic workflow for time series data…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Pejman Farhadi Ghalati , Andreas Schuppert

Generation and analysis of time-series data is relevant to many quantitative fields ranging from economics to fluid mechanics. In the physical sciences, structures such as metastable and coherent sets, slow relaxation processes, collective…

Mining frequent episodes aims at recovering sequential patterns from temporal data sequences, which can then be used to predict the occurrence of related events in advance. On the other hand, gradual patterns that capture co-variation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-21 Jerry Lonlac , Arnaud Doniec , Marin Lujak , Stephane Lecoeuche

Multivariate spatio-temporal data refers to multiple measurements taken across space and time. For many analyses, spatial and time components can be separately studied: for example, to explore the temporal trend of one variable for a single…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-24 H. Sherry Zhang , Dianne Cook , Ursula Laa , Nicolas Langrené , Patricia Menéndez

Complexity researchers view burstiness--fluctuating levels of activity--as evidence of hidden interactions within the system generating the activity signal. Yet, current burstiness metrics miss evidence of burstiness in some moderately…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-04-08 Joshua Z. Stadlan , Michelle Birkett , Jason H. Rife

The joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data is an active area of statistics research that has received a lot of attention in the recent years. More recently, a new and attractive application of this type of models has been to…

PySINDy is a Python package for the discovery of governing dynamical systems models from data. In particular, PySINDy provides tools for applying the sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) (Brunton et al. 2016) approach to…

The concept of temporal networks provides a framework to understand how the interaction between system components changes over time. In empirical communication data, we often detect non-Poissonian, so-called bursty behavior in the activity…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-04-29 Takayuki Hiraoka , Naoki Masuda , Aming Li , Hang-Hyun Jo

Characterizing inhomogeneous temporal patterns in natural and social phenomena is important to understand underlying mechanisms behind such complex systems, hence even to predict and control them. Temporal inhomogeneities in event sequences…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-09-21 Eun-Kyeong Kim , Hang-Hyun Jo

Temporal sequences of discrete events that describe natural and social processes are often driven by non-Poisson dynamics. In addition to a heavy-tailed interevent time distribution, which primarily captures the deviation from a Poisson…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-12-08 Takayuki Hiraoka , Hang-Hyun Jo

Time-series stationarity is a property that statistical characteristics such as trend, variance, seasonality remain constant over time. It is considered fundamental to many forecasting and analysis methods. Different tests detect different…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-13 Bhanu Suraj Malla , Yuqing Hu

Mixtures of linear mixed models are widely used for modelling longitudinal data for which observation times differ between subjects. In typical applications, temporal trends are described using a basis expansion, with basis coefficients…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-25 Lucas Kock , Nadja Klein , David J. Nott

The dynamics of a wide range of real systems, from email patterns to earthquakes, display a bursty, intermittent nature, characterized by short timeframes of intensive activity followed by long times of no or reduced activity. The…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Kwang-Il Goh , Albert-Laszlo Barabasi
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