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Related papers: Point processes with event time uncertainty

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Fueled in part by recent applications in neuroscience, the multivariate Hawkes process has become a popular tool for modeling the network of interactions among high-dimensional point process data. While evaluating the uncertainty of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-16 Xu Wang , Mladen Kolar , Ali Shojaie

Hawkes processes are a self-exciting stochastic process used to describe phenomena whereby past events increase the probability of the occurrence of future events. This work presents a flexible approach for modelling a variant of these,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-08 Raiha Browning , Judith Rousseau , Kerrie Mengersen

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-23 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

Traditionally, Hawkes processes are used to model time--continuous point processes with history dependence. Here we propose an extended model where the self--effects are of both excitatory and inhibitory type and follow a Gaussian Process.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-21 Noa Malem-Shinitski , Cesar Ojeda , Manfred Opper

Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual…

Applications · Statistics 2019-02-12 Achraf Bahamou , Maud Doumergue , Philippe Donnat

Hawkes processes are point process models that have been used to capture self-excitatory behavior in social interactions, neural activity, earthquakes and viral epidemics. They can model the occurrence of the times and locations of events.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-24 Xenia Miscouridou , Samir Bhatt , George Mohler , Seth Flaxman , Swapnil Mishra

Self-exciting spatio-temporal point process models predict the rate of events as a function of space, time, and the previous history of events. These models naturally capture triggering and clustering behavior, and have been widely used in…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-14 Alex Reinhart

As a tool for capturing irregular temporal dependencies (rather than resorting to binning temporal observations to construct time series), Hawkes processes with exponential decay have seen widespread adoption across many application…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-05 Tiago Santos , Florian Lemmerich , Denis Helic

In this paper, we are interested in linear prediction of a particular kind of stochastic process, namely a marked temporal point process. The observations are event times recorded on the real line, with marks attached to each event. We show…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-18 Maximilian Aigner , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

Sparse sequences of neural spikes are posited to underlie aspects of working memory, motor production, and learning. Discovering these sequences in an unsupervised manner is a longstanding problem in statistical neuroscience. Promising…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-13 Alex H. Williams , Anthony Degleris , Yixin Wang , Scott W. Linderman

Multivariate Hawkes processes are past-dependant point processes originally introduced to model excitation effects, later extended to a nonlinear framework to account for the opposite effect, known as inhibition. Motivated by applications…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Sacha Quayle , Anna Bonnet , Maxime Sangnier

Consider observing a collection of discrete events within a network that reflect how network nodes influence one another. Such data are common in spike trains recorded from biological neural networks, interactions within a social network,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-15 Benjamin Mark , Garvesh Raskutti , Rebecca Willett

Sequences of events including infectious disease outbreaks, social network activities, and crimes are ubiquitous and the data on such events carry essential information about the underlying diffusion processes between communities (e.g.,…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Maya Okawa , Tomoharu Iwata , Yusuke Tanaka , Hiroyuki Toda , Takeshi Kurashima , Hisashi Kashima

The Hawkes self-excited point process provides an efficient representation of the bursty intermittent dynamics of many physical, biological, geological and economic systems. By expressing the probability for the next event per unit time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-09-23 Kiyoshi Kanazawa , Didier Sornette

We propose a simulation method for multidimensional Hawkes processes based on superposition theory of point processes. This formulation allows us to design efficient simulations for Hawkes processes with differing exponentially decaying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-14 Kar Wai Lim , Young Lee , Leif Hanlen , Hongbiao Zhao

Event sequences can be modeled by temporal point processes (TPPs) to capture their asynchronous and probabilistic nature. We propose an intensity-free framework that directly models the point process distribution by utilizing normalizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-24 Nazanin Mehrasa , Ruizhi Deng , Mohamed Osama Ahmed , Bo Chang , Jiawei He , Thibaut Durand , Marcus Brubaker , Greg Mori

The marked Hawkes risk process is a compound point process for which the occurrence and amplitude of past events impact the future. Thanks to its autoregressive properties, it found applications in various fields such as neuosciences,…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-11 Laure Coutin , Mahmoud Khabou

In real-world scenario, many phenomena produce a collection of events that occur in continuous time. Point Processes provide a natural mathematical framework for modeling these sequences of events. In this survey, we investigate…

We present a new CUSUM procedure for sequentially detecting change-point in the self and mutual exciting processes, a.k.a. Hawkes networks using discrete events data. Hawkes networks have become a popular model for statistics and machine…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-08 Haoyun Wang , Liyan Xie , Yao Xie , Alex Cuozzo , Simon Mak

Cascading chains of events are a salient feature of many real-world social, biological, and financial networks. In social networks, social reciprocity accounts for retaliations in gang interactions, proxy wars in nation-state conflicts, or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-07-05 Eric C. Hall , Rebecca M. Willett