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We propose Diffusion Model Variational Inference (DMVI), a novel method for automated approximate inference in probabilistic programming languages (PPLs). DMVI utilizes diffusion models as variational approximations to the true posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Simon Dirmeier , Fernando Perez-Cruz

We consider the inference problem for parameters in stochastic differential equation models from discrete time observations (e.g. experimental or simulation data). Specifically, we study the case where one does not have access to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-04-10 Sebastian Krumscheid

Inference is the task of drawing conclusions about unobserved variables given observations of related variables. Applications range from identifying diseases from symptoms to classifying economic regimes from price movements. Unfortunately,…

In this paper, we study porous media flows in heterogeneous stochastic media. We propose an efficient forward simulation technique that is tailored for variational Bayesian inversion. As a starting point, the proposed forward simulation…

Applications · Statistics 2018-02-12 Keren Yang , Nilabja Guha , Yalchin Efendiev , Bani K. Mallick

We consider nonparametric invariant density and drift estimation for a class of multidimensional degenerate resp. hypoelliptic diffusion processes, so-called stochastic damping Hamiltonian systems or kinetic diffusions, under anisotropic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-24 Niklas Dexheimer , Claudia Strauch

We consider degenerate diffusion equations of the form $\partial_tp_t = \Delta f(p_t)$ on a bounded domain and subject to no-flux boundary conditions, for a class of nonlinearities $f$ that includes the porous medium equation. We derive for…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-31 Donghan Kim , Lane Chun Yeung

Existing deterministic variational inference approaches for diffusion processes use simple proposals and target the marginal density of the posterior. We construct the variational process as a controlled version of the prior process and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Christian Wildner , Heinz Koeppl

We introduce a random partition model for Bayesian nonparametric regression. The model is based on infinitely-many disjoint regions of the range of a latent covariate-dependent Gaussian process. Given a realization of the process, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-01-04 George Karabatsos , Stephen G. Walker

In theory, Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) models are well suited to streaming data scenarios due to their ability to adapt model complexity with the observed data. Unfortunately, such benefits have not been fully realized in practice;…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-04-22 Alex Tank , Nicholas J. Foti , Emily B. Fox

Stochastic differential equations are an important modeling class in many disciplines. Consequently, there exist many methods relying on various discretization and numerical integration schemes. In this paper, we propose a novel,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-29 Gabriele Abbati , Philippe Wenk , Michael A Osborne , Andreas Krause , Bernhard Schölkopf , Stefan Bauer

A new method is proposed to numerically extract the diffusivity of a (typically nonlinear) diffusion equation from underlying stochastic particle systems. The proposed strategy requires the system to be in local equilibrium and have…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-05-09 Peter Embacher , Nicolas Dirr , Johannes Zimmer , Celia Reina

We demonstrate a method for filtering images defined on curved surfaces embedded in 3D. Applications are noise removal and the creation of artistic effects. Our approach relies on in-surface diffusion: we formulate Weickert's edge/coherence…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-04-08 Emma Naden , Thomas März , Colin B. Macdonald

Given a Wiener process with unknown and unobservable drift, we try to estimate this drift as effectively but also as quickly as possible, in the presence of a quadratic penalty for the estimation error and of a fixed, positive cost per unit…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-24 Erik Ekström , Ioannis Karatzas , Juozas Vaicenavicius

The diffusion forecasting is a nonparametric approach that provably solves the Fokker-Planck PDE corresponding to It\^o diffusion without knowing the underlying equation. The key idea of this method is to approximate the solution of the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-01-17 John Harlim , Haizhao Yang

Diffusive motion in an externally driven potential is considered. It is shown that the distribution of work required to drive the system from an initial equilibrium state to another is Gaussian for slow but finite driving. Our result is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Thomas Speck , Udo Seifert

In this paper, we consider the composition of two independent processes : one process corresponds to position and the other one to time. Such processes will be called iterated processes. We first propose an algorithm based on the Euler…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-03 Michèle Thieullen , Alexis Vigot

This paper presents several situations leading to the observation of multiple correlated copies of a drifted process, and then non-asymptotic risk bounds are established on nonparametric estimators of the drift function $b_0$ and its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Nicolas Marie

Usually the problem of drift estimation for a diffusion process is considered under the hypothesis of ergodicity. It is less often considered under the hypothesis of null-recurrence, simply because there are fewer limit theorems and…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-08-25 D. Loukianova , O. Loukianov

We study the Bayesian problems of detecting a change in the drift rate of an observable diffusion process with linear and exponential penalty costs for a detection delay. The optimal times of alarms are found as the first times at which the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-11-08 Pavel V. Gapeev , Albert N. Shiryaev

We consider the inverse problem of estimating parameters of a driven diffusion (e.g., the underlying fluid flow, diffusion coefficient, or source terms) from point measurements of a passive scalar (e.g., the concentration of a pollutant).…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-05-22 Jeff Borggaard , Nathan E. Glatt-Holtz , Justin A. Krometis