Related papers: Multidimensional Economic Complexity and Fiscal Cr…
Diversified economies are critical for cities to sustain their growth and development, but they are also costly because diversification often requires expanding a city's capability base. We analyze how cities manage this trade-off by…
We analyze export data aggregated at world global level of 219 classes of products over a period of 39 years. Our main goal is to set up a dynamical model to identify and quantify plausible mechanisms by which the evolutions of the various…
There are many dimensions of software complexity. In this article, we explore how structural complexity is measured and used to study and control evolving software systems. We also present the current research challenges and emerging trends…
I devise a novel approach to evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the short run with multi-category treatment effects and inverse probability weighting based on the potential outcome framework. This study's main contribution to…
Systemic risk is a rapidly developing area of research. Classical financial models often do not adequately reflect the phenomena of bubbles, crises, and transitions between them during credit cycles. To study very improbable events,…
The increasing integration of world economies, which organize in complex multilayer networks of interactions, is one of the critical factors for the global propagation of economic crises. We adopt the network science approach to quantify…
Structural transformation, the shift from agrarian economies to more diversified industrial and service-based systems, is a key driver of economic development. However, in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), data scarcity and…
We study the emergence of instabilities in a stylized model of a financial market, when different market actors calculate prices according to different (local) market measures. We derive typical properties for ensembles of large random…
Economies are fundamentally complex and becoming more so, but the new discipline of data science-which combines programming, statistics, and domain knowledge-can help cut through that complexity, potentially with productivity benefits to…
Financial crises are a recurrent phenomenon with important effects on the real economy. The financial system is inherently fragile and it is therefore of great importance to be able to measure and characterize its systemic stability.…
Global and regional integration has grown significantly in recent decades, boosting intra-African trade and positively impacting national economies through trade diversification and sustainable development. However, existing measures of…
The seriousness of the current crisis urgently demands new economic thinking that breaks the austerity vs. deficit spending circle in economic policy. The core tenet of the paper is that the most important problems that natural and social…
As a quantitative characterization of the complicated economy, Macroeconomic Variables (MEVs), including GDP, inflation, unemployment, income, spending, interest rate, etc., are playing a crucial role in banks' portfolio management and…
Economic Complexity (EC) methods have gained increasing popularity across fields and disciplines. In particular, the EC toolbox has proved particularly promising in the study of complex and interrelated phenomena, such as the transition…
The instability of the financial system as experienced in recent years and in previous periods is often linked to credit defaults, i.e., to the failure of obligors to make promised payments. Given the large number of credit contracts, this…
We propose a combinatorial model of economic development. An economy develops by acquiring new capabilities allowing for the production of an ever greater variety of products of increasingly complex products. Taking into account that…
This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to post-WWII…
The fragility of financial systems was starkly demonstrated in early 2023 through a cascade of major bank failures in the United States, including the second, third, and fourth largest collapses in the US history. The highly interdependent…
Network structure strongly constrains the range of dynamic behaviors available to a complex system. These system dynamics can be classified based on their response to perturbations over time into two distinct regimes, ordered or chaotic,…
Big data features not only large volumes of data but also data with complicated structures. Complexity imposes unique challenges in big data analytics. Meeker and Hong (2014, Quality Engineering, pp. 102-116) provided an extensive…