English
Related papers

Related papers: Conformal Risk Minimization with Variance Reductio…

200 papers

Recent advances in uncertainty quantification for time series forecasting show that conformal prediction can provide reliable prediction intervals, yet standard conformal methods are often inefficient under temporal dependence, drift, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Manuel Heurich , Maximilian Granz , Tim Landgraf

Conformal prediction is a framework for providing prediction intervals with distribution-free validity, guaranteeing predictive coverage for data drawn from any distribution. Its two main variants are full conformal prediction and split…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Aabesh Bhattacharyya , Boxuan Zhang , Rina Foygel Barber

Machine learning (ML) models always make a prediction, even when they are likely to be wrong. This causes problems in practical applications, as we do not know if we should trust a prediction. ML with reject option addresses this issue by…

Distributional regression aims at estimating the conditional distribution of a targetvariable given explanatory co-variates. It is a crucial tool for forecasting whena precise uncertainty quantification is required. A popular methodology…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-22 Clément Dombry , Ahmed Zaoui

Spurious correlations pose a major challenge for robust machine learning. Models trained with empirical risk minimization (ERM) may learn to rely on correlations between class labels and spurious attributes, leading to poor performance on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-12 Michael Zhang , Nimit S. Sohoni , Hongyang R. Zhang , Chelsea Finn , Christopher Ré

Continuous-time reinforcement learning (CTRL) provides a principled framework for sequential decision-making in environments where interactions evolve continuously over time. Despite its empirical success, the theoretical understanding of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Runze Zhao , Yue Yu , Adams Yiyue Zhu , Chen Yang , Dongruo Zhou

Modern black-box predictive models are often accompanied by weak performance guarantees that only hold asymptotically in the size of the dataset or require strong parametric assumptions. In response to this, split conformal prediction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-27 Roel Hulsman

Quantitative tools are increasingly appealing for decision support in healthcare, driven by the growing capabilities of advanced AI systems. However, understanding the predictive uncertainties surrounding a tool's output is crucial for…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-20 Roel Hulsman , Valentin Comte , Lorenzo Bertolini , Tobias Wiesenthal , Antonio Puertas Gallardo , Mario Ceresa

Conformal prediction (CP) constructs uncertainty sets for model outputs with finite-sample coverage guarantees. A candidate output is included in the prediction set if its non-conformity score is not considered extreme relative to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-20 Eugene Ndiaye

With the advancement of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, high-precision indoor positioning has become essential for Location-Based Services (LBS) in complex indoor environments. Fingerprint-based localization is popular, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Zhiyi Zhou , Hexin Peng , Hongyu Long

Human-in-the-Loop (HITL) systems are essential in high-stakes, real-world applications where AI must collaborate with human decision-makers. This work investigates how Conformal Prediction (CP) techniques, which provide rigorous coverage…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-07-23 Bary Tim , Fuchs Clément , Macq Benoît

Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Previous works often employ temperature scaling to calibrate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Huajun Xi , Jianguo Huang , Kangdao Liu , Lei Feng , Hongxin Wei

Deep learning models in robotics often output point estimates with poorly calibrated confidences, offering no native mechanism to quantify predictive reliability under novel, noisy, or out-of-distribution inputs. Conformal prediction (CP)…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Divake Kumar , Sina Tayebati , Francesco Migliarba , Ranganath Krishnan , Amit Ranjan Trivedi

Conformal prediction is a non-parametric technique for constructing prediction intervals or sets from arbitrary predictive models under the assumption that the data is exchangeable. It is popular as it comes with theoretical guarantees on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-01 Jase Clarkson , Wenkai Xu , Mihai Cucuringu , Yvik Swan , Gesine Reinert

The rapid advancement of large language models has raised significant concerns regarding their potential misuse by malicious actors. As a result, developing effective detectors to mitigate these risks has become a critical priority.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-15 Xiaowei Zhu , Yubing Ren , Yanan Cao , Xixun Lin , Fang Fang , Yangxi Li

Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Roberto Neglia , Andrea Cini , Michael M. Bronstein , Filippo Maria Bianchi

Volumetry is one of the principal downstream applications of 3D medical image segmentation, for example, to detect abnormal tissue growth or for surgery planning. Conformal Prediction is a promising framework for uncertainty quantification,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-30 Benjamin Lambert , Florence Forbes , Senan Doyle , Michel Dojat

Different from large-scale platforms such as Taobao and Amazon, CVR modeling in small-scale recommendation scenarios is more challenging due to the severe Data Distribution Fluctuation (DDF) issue. DDF prevents existing CVR models from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-29 Xiaofeng Pan , Ming Li , Jing Zhang , Keren Yu , Luping Wang , Hong Wen , Chengjun Mao , Bo Cao

Autonomous systems operate in environments that may change over time. An example is the control of a self-driving vehicle among pedestrians and human-controlled vehicles whose behavior may change based on factors such as traffic density,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-16 Kaizer Rahaman , Jyotirmoy V. Deshmukh , Ashish R. Hota , Lars Lindemann

Recent advances in domain adaptation show that deep self-training presents a powerful means for unsupervised domain adaptation. These methods often involve an iterative process of predicting on target domain and then taking the confident…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-07-16 Yang Zou , Zhiding Yu , Xiaofeng Liu , B. V. K. Vijaya Kumar , Jinsong Wang