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Conformal prediction is an uncertainty quantification method that constructs a prediction set for a previously unseen datum, ensuring the true label is included with a predetermined coverage probability. Adaptive conformal prediction has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-07 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

Methods to quantify uncertainty in predictions from arbitrary models are in demand in high-stakes domains like medicine and finance. Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular method for producing a set of predictions with specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Jessica Hullman , Yifan Wu , Dawei Xie , Ziyang Guo , Andrew Gelman

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

Conformal Prediction methods have finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees. However, they generally do not offer conditional coverage guarantees, which can be important for high-stakes decisions. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-27 Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , James McInerney , Nathan Kallus

Given that machine learning algorithms are increasingly being deployed to aid in high stakes decision-making, uncertainty quantification methods that wrap around these black box models such as conformal prediction have received much…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-09 Kayla E. Scharfstein , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Conformal prediction is a framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets for previously unseen data, guaranteeing coverage of the true label with a specified probability. However, the efficiency of these prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

Conformal prediction is a popular, modern technique for providing valid predictive inference for arbitrary machine learning models. Its validity relies on the assumptions of exchangeability of the data, and symmetry of the given model…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-20 Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candes , Aaditya Ramdas , Ryan J. Tibshirani

Conformal prediction is a powerful post-hoc framework for uncertainty quantification that provides distribution-free coverage guarantees. However, these guarantees crucially rely on the assumption of exchangeability. This assumption is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-18 M. Stocker , W. Małgorzewicz , M. Fontana , S. Ben Taieb

Conformal prediction is a learning framework controlling prediction coverage of prediction sets, which can be built on any learning algorithm for point prediction. This work proposes a learning framework named conformal loss-controlling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Di Wang , Ping Wang , Zhong Ji , Xiaojun Yang , Hongyue Li

As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-07-11 Bhawesh Kumar , Charlie Lu , Gauri Gupta , Anil Palepu , David Bellamy , Ramesh Raskar , Andrew Beam

Conformal prediction offers a distribution-free framework for constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees. In practice, multiple valid conformal prediction sets may be available, arising from different models or methodologies.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-26 Mahmoud Hegazy , Liviu Aolaritei , Michael I. Jordan , Aymeric Dieuleveut

Machine learning has become an effective tool for automatically annotating unstructured data (e.g., images) with structured labels (e.g., object detections). As a result, a new programming paradigm called neurosymbolic programming has…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Ramya Ramalingam , Sangdon Park , Osbert Bastani

Standard conformal prediction offers a marginal guarantee on coverage, but for prediction sets to be truly useful, they should ideally ensure coverage conditional on each test point. Unfortunately, it is impossible to achieve exact,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Jivat Neet Kaur , Michael I. Jordan , Ahmed Alaa

In the past decades, most work in the area of data analysis and machine learning was focused on optimizing predictive models and getting better results than what was possible with existing models. To what extent the metrics with which such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-06 Nicolas Dewolf

Conformal prediction has recently emerged as a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of a predictive model; these algorithms modify the model to output sets of labels that are guaranteed to contain the true label with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Botong Zhang , Shuo Li , Osbert Bastani

Conformal prediction is a statistically rigorous method for quantifying uncertainty in models by having them output sets of predictions, with larger sets indicating more uncertainty. However, prediction sets are not inherently actionable;…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-17 Jesse C. Cresswell , Bhargava Kumar , Yi Sui , Mouloud Belbahri

Conformal unlearning aims to ensure that a trained conformal predictor miscovers data points with specific shared characteristics, such as those from a particular label class, associated with a specific user, or belonging to a defined…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Yahya Alkhatib , Muhammad Ahmar Jamal , Wee Peng Tay

Machine learning methods are increasingly widely used in high-risk settings such as healthcare, transportation, and finance. In these settings, it is important that a model produces calibrated uncertainty to reflect its own confidence and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-09-09 Sophia Sun

Interest has been growing in decision-focused machine learning methods which train models to account for how their predictions are used in downstream optimization problems. Doing so can often improve performance on subsequent decision…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-03 Santiago Cortes-Gomez , Carlos Patiño , Yewon Byun , Steven Wu , Eric Horvitz , Bryan Wilder

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning systems in high-stakes domains. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees but often produces overly large prediction sets, limiting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Yunpeng Xu , Wenge Guo , Zhi Wei
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