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Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNN) have emerged as the dominant model for spatio-temporal graph (STG) forecasting. Despite their success, they fail to model intrinsic uncertainties within STG data, which cripples their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-12 Haomin Wen , Youfang Lin , Yutong Xia , Huaiyu Wan , Qingsong Wen , Roger Zimmermann , Yuxuan Liang

Recent innovations in diffusion probabilistic models have paved the way for significant progress in image, text and audio generation, leading to their applications in generative time series forecasting. However, leveraging such abilities to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-07 Yuansan Liu , Sudanthi Wijewickrema , Dongting Hu , Christofer Bester , Stephen O'Leary , James Bailey

Generating graph-structured data requires learning the underlying distribution of graphs. Yet, this is a challenging problem, and the previous graph generative methods either fail to capture the permutation-invariance property of graphs or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-16 Jaehyeong Jo , Seul Lee , Sung Ju Hwang

Probabilistic forecasting is crucial for real-world spatiotemporal systems, such as climate, energy, and urban environments, where quantifying uncertainty is essential for informed, risk-aware decision-making. While diffusion models have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Zhi Sheng , Yuan Yuan , Yudi Zhang , Jingtao Ding , Yong Li

Local climate information is crucial for impact assessment and decision-making, yet coarse global climate simulations cannot capture small-scale phenomena. Current statistical downscaling methods infer these phenomena as temporally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Jonathan Schmidt , Luca Schmidt , Felix Strnad , Nicole Ludwig , Philipp Hennig

I propose a novel framework that integrates stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with deep generative models to improve uncertainty quantification in machine learning applications involving structured and temporal data. This approach,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-09 James Rice

Diffusion models (DMs) represent state-of-the-art generative models for continuous inputs. DMs work by constructing a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) in the input space (ie, position space), and using a neural network to reverse it.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-14 Tianrong Chen , Jiatao Gu , Laurent Dinh , Evangelos A. Theodorou , Joshua Susskind , Shuangfei Zhai

Spatiotemporal data analysis is pivotal across various domains, such as transportation, meteorology, and healthcare. The data collected in real-world scenarios are often incomplete due to device malfunctions and network errors.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Yakun Chen , Kaize Shi , Zhangkai Wu , Juan Chen , Xianzhi Wang , Julian McAuley , Guandong Xu , Shui Yu

Accurate and reliable forecasting of epidemic incidences is critical for public health preparedness, yet it remains a challenging task due to complex nonlinear temporal dependencies and heterogeneous spatial interactions. Often, point…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-10 Rajdeep Pathak , Tanujit Chakraborty

Diffusion (score-based) generative models have been widely used for modeling various types of complex data, including images, audios, and point clouds. Recently, the deep connection between forward-backward stochastic differential equations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Weitao Du , Tao Yang , He Zhang , Yuanqi Du

While diffusion models can successfully generate data and make predictions, they are predominantly designed for static images. We propose an approach for efficiently training diffusion models for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-12 Salva Rühling Cachay , Bo Zhao , Hailey Joren , Rose Yu

Recent advances in large reconstruction and generative models have significantly improved scene reconstruction and novel view generation. However, due to compute limitations, each inference with these large models is confined to a small…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Shangjin Zhai , Zhichao Ye , Jialin Liu , Weijian Xie , Jiaqi Hu , Zhen Peng , Hua Xue , Danpeng Chen , Xiaomeng Wang , Lei Yang , Nan Wang , Haomin Liu , Guofeng Zhang

Probabilistic regression models the entire predictive distribution of a response variable, offering richer insights than classical point estimates and directly allowing for uncertainty quantification. While diffusion-based generative models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Carlo Kneissl , Christopher Bülte , Philipp Scholl , Gitta Kutyniok

Diffusion-based generative models employ stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and their equivalent probability flow ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to establish a smooth transformation between complex high-dimensional data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-12 Defang Chen , Zhenyu Zhou , Can Wang , Siwei Lyu

Traffic forecasting, a crucial application of spatio-temporal graph (STG) learning, has traditionally relied on deterministic models for accurate point estimations. Yet, these models fall short of quantifying future uncertainties. Recently,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-08 Lequan Lin , Dai Shi , Andi Han , Junbin Gao

Scenario-based probabilistic forecasts have become vital for decision-makers in handling intermittent renewable energies. This paper presents a recent promising deep learning generative approach called denoising diffusion probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-22 Esteban Hernandez Capel , Jonathan Dumas

Spatio-temporal (ST) data for urban applications, such as taxi demand, traffic flow, regional rainfall is inherently stochastic and unpredictable. Recently, deep learning based ST prediction models are proposed to learn the ST…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-01 Divya Saxena , Jiannong Cao

The proposed BSDE-based diffusion model represents a novel approach to diffusion modeling, which extends the application of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in machine learning. Unlike traditional SDE-based diffusion models, our…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-27 Zihao Wang

Progressively applying Gaussian noise transforms complex data distributions to approximately Gaussian. Reversing this dynamic defines a generative model. When the forward noising process is given by a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE),…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-06 Valentin De Bortoli , James Thornton , Jeremy Heng , Arnaud Doucet

Recent years have witnessed significant progress in developing effective training and fast sampling techniques for diffusion models. A remarkable advancement is the use of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and their…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-08-26 Defang Chen , Zhenyu Zhou , Jian-Ping Mei , Chunhua Shen , Chun Chen , Can Wang
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