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Efficient uncertainty quantification algorithms are key to understand the propagation of uncertainty -- from uncertain input parameters to uncertain output quantities -- in high resolution mathematical models of brain physiology. Advanced…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-01-10 Matteo Croci , Vegard Vinje , Marie E. Rognes

We introduce an ensemble Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to sampling from a probability density with known likelihood. This method upgrades an underlying Markov chain by allowing an ensemble of such chains to interact via a process in…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-08 Michael Lindsey , Jonathan Weare , Anna Zhang

We present a novel quasi-Monte Carlo mechanism to improve graph-based sampling, coined repelling random walks. By inducing correlations between the trajectories of an interacting ensemble such that their marginal transition probabilities…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-27 Isaac Reid , Eli Berger , Krzysztof Choromanski , Adrian Weller

The excursion set approach uses the statistics of the density field smoothed on a wide range of scales, to gain insight into a number of interesting processes in nonlinear structure formation, such as cluster assembly, merging and…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2014-10-13 Marcello Musso , Ravi K. Sheth

We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-04 Tom Gunter , Michael A. Osborne , Roman Garnett , Philipp Hennig , Stephen J. Roberts

We present a new Monte Carlo algorithm that produces results of high accuracy with reduced simulational effort. Independent random walks are performed (concurrently or serially) in different, restricted ranges of energy, and the resultant…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Fugao Wang , D. P. Landau

We discuss possible sources of systematic errors in the computation of critical exponents by renormalization-group methods, extrapolations from exact enumerations and Monte Carlo simulations. A careful Monte Carlo determination of the…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2009-10-30 Sergio Caracciolo , Maria Serena Causo , Andrea Pelissetto

Computational tools for characterizing electromagnetic scattering from objects with uncertain shapes are needed in various applications ranging from remote sensing at microwave frequencies to Raman spectroscopy at optical frequencies.…

For real symmetric matrices that are accessible only through matrix vector products, we present Monte Carlo estimators for computing the diagonal elements. Our probabilistic bounds for normwise absolute and relative errors apply to Monte…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-18 Eric Hallman , Ilse C. F. Ipsen , Arvind Saibaba

Owing to their favorable scaling with dimensionality, Monte Carlo (MC) methods have become the tool of choice for numerical integration across the quantitative sciences. Almost invariably, efficient MC integration schemes are strictly…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2010-01-29 Artur B. Adib

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have existed for a long time and the field is well-explored. The purpose of MCMC methods is to approximate a distribution through repeated sampling; most MCMC algorithms exhibit asymptotically optimal…

Computation · Statistics 2023-07-13 Fareed Sheriff

We perform simulations for long hard-sphere polymer chains using a recently developed binary-tree based Monte Carlo method. Systems in two to five dimensions with free and periodic boundary conditions and up to $10^7$ repeat units are…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2023-12-01 Stefan Schnabel , Wolfhard Janke

The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is widely used in various fields as a powerful numerical integration technique for systems with many degrees of freedom. In MCMC methods, probabilistic state transitions can be considered as a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-11-11 Hidemaro Suwa , Synge Todo

Population Monte Carlo (PMC) sampling methods are powerful tools for approximating distributions of static unknowns given a set of observations. These methods are iterative in nature: at each step they generate samples from a proposal…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-17 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , David Luengo , Mónica F. Bugallo

Monte Carlo (MC) dropout is a simple and efficient ensembling method that can improve the accuracy and confidence calibration of high-capacity deep neural network models. However, MC dropout is not as effective as more compute-intensive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-10 Zhilu Zhang , Vianne R. Gao , Mert R. Sabuncu

High-dimensional distributions, especially those with heavy tails, are notoriously difficult for off-the-shelf MCMC samplers: the combination of unbounded state spaces, diminishing gradient information, and local moves results in…

Computation · Statistics 2024-02-22 Jun Yang , Krzysztof Łatuszyński , Gareth O. Roberts

The properties of ideal tri-functional dendrimers with forty-five, ninety-three and one hundred and eighty-nine branches are investigated. Three methods are employed to calculate the mean-square radius of gyration, $g$-ratios, asphericity,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-06-25 M. Jura , M. Bishop , B. Thrope , R. de Regt

We propose a novel class of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms, appropriate for inference in probabilistic graphical models. This class of algorithms adopts a divide-and-conquer approach based upon an auxiliary tree-structured…

This paper proposes a new multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for the ergodic SDEs which do not satisfy the contractivity condition. By introducing the change of measure technique, we simulate the path with contractivity and add the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-12-11 Wei Fang , Michael B. Giles

This paper presents two novel ensemble domain decomposition methods for fast-solving the Stokes-Darcy coupled models with random hydraulic conductivity and body force. To address such random systems, we employ the Monte Carlo (MC) method to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-08-13 Chunchi Liu , Yao Rong , Yizhong Sun , Jiaping Yu , Haibiao Zheng