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This paper presents a machine learning framework (GP-NODE) for Bayesian systems identification from partial, noisy and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of recent developments in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-08 Mohamed Aziz Bhouri , Paris Perdikaris

A key objective in spatial statistics is to simulate from the distribution of a spatial process at a selection of unobserved locations conditional on observations (i.e., a predictive distribution) to enable spatial prediction and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-17 Julia Walchessen , Andrew Zammit-Mangion , Raphaël Huser , Mikael Kuusela

The identification of the constrained dynamics of mechanical systems is often challenging. Learning methods promise to ease an analytical analysis, but require considerable amounts of data for training. We propose to combine insights from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-16 A. Rene Geist , Sebastian Trimpe

System identification is of special interest in science and engineering. This article is concerned with a system identification problem arising in stochastic dynamic systems, where the aim is to estimate the parameters of a system along…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-27 Christos Merkatas , Simo Särkkä

We propose NonStGM, a general nonparametric graphical modeling framework for studying dynamic associations among the components of a nonstationary multivariate time series. It builds on the framework of Gaussian Graphical Models (GGM) and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-22 Sumanta Basu , Suhasini Subba Rao

We present a stochastic method for the simulation of the time evolution in systems which obey generalized statistics, namely fractional exclusion statistics and Gentile's statistics. The transition rates are derived in the framework of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-02-12 George Alexandru Nemnes , Dragos-Victor Anghel

A nonparametric Bayesian sparse graph linear dynamical system (SGLDS) is proposed to model sequentially observed multivariate data. SGLDS uses the Bernoulli-Poisson link together with a gamma process to generate an infinite dimensional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-22 Rahi Kalantari , Joydeep Ghosh , Mingyuan Zhou

We introduce the truncated Gaussian graphical model (TGGM) as a novel framework for designing statistical models for nonlinear learning. A TGGM is a Gaussian graphical model (GGM) with a subset of variables truncated to be nonnegative. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-22 Qinliang Su , Xuejun Liao , Changyou Chen , Lawrence Carin

We examine an analytic variational inference scheme for the Gaussian Process State Space Model (GPSSM) - a probabilistic model for system identification and time-series modelling. Our approach performs variational inference over both the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-11 Alessandro Davide Ialongo , Mark van der Wilk , Carl Edward Rasmussen

Gaussian process is a theoretically appealing model for nonparametric analysis, but its computational cumbersomeness hinders its use in large scale and the existing reduced-rank solutions are usually heuristic. In this work, we propose a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-25 Leo L. Duan , Xia Wang , Rhonda D. Szczesniak

We present the Causal Gaussian Process Convolution Model (CGPCM), a doubly nonparametric model for causal, spectrally complex dynamical phenomena. The CGPCM is a generative model in which white noise is passed through a causal,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-23 Wessel Bruinsma , Richard E. Turner

This work is about a slow-fast data assimilation system under non-Gaussian noisy fluctuations. Firstly, we show the existence of a random invariant manifold for a stochastic dynamical system with non-Gaussian noise and two-time scales.…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-12 Yanjie Zhang , Huijie Qiao , Jinqiao Duan

The Collective Graphical Model (CGM) models a population of independent and identically distributed individuals when only collective statistics (i.e., counts of individuals) are observed. Exact inference in CGMs is intractable, and previous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-05-21 Li-Ping Liu , Daniel Sheldon , Thomas G. Dietterich

Within the past two decades, Gaussian process regression has been increasingly used for modeling dynamical systems due to some beneficial properties such as the bias variance trade-off and the strong connection to Bayesian mathematics. As…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-02-11 Thomas Beckers

Deep learning is widely used to predict complex dynamical systems in many scientific and engineering areas. However, the black-box nature of these deep learning models presents significant challenges for carrying out simultaneous data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-04 Chuanqi Chen , Nan Chen , Yinling Zhang , Jin-Long Wu

In this paper, we revisit batch state estimation through the lens of Gaussian process (GP) regression. We consider continuous-discrete estimation problems wherein a trajectory is viewed as a one-dimensional GP, with time as the independent…

Robotics · Computer Science 2014-12-02 Sean Anderson , Timothy D. Barfoot , Chi Hay Tong , Simo Särkkä

Stochastic averaging allows for the reduction of the dimension and complexity of stochastic dynamical systems with multiple time scales, replacing fast variables with statistically equivalent stochastic processes in order to analyze…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-02-25 William F. Thompson , Rachel A. Kuske , Adam H. Monahan

Data-driven control of nonlinear systems with rigorous guarantees is a challenging problem as it usually calls for nonconvex optimization and requires often knowledge of the true basis functions of the system dynamics. To tackle these…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-27 Tim Martin , Thomas B. Schön , Frank Allgöwer

The existence of generalized steady states (GSSs) in nonlinear mechanical systems under moderate temporally aperiodic forcing has only been shown recently. Here we derive systematic expansions for such GSSs and construct a numerical…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-02-20 Roshan S. Kaundinya , Isabella Thiel , Bálint Kaszás , Shobhit Jain , George Haller

Conditional Gaussian graphical models (cGGM) are a recent reparametrization of the multivariate linear regression model which explicitly exhibits $i)$ the partial covariances between the predictors and the responses, and $ii)$ the partial…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-09-26 Julien Chiquet , Tristan Mary-Huard , Stéphane Robin