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In this work, we study some novel applications of conformal inference techniques to the problem of providing machine learning procedures with more transparent, accurate, and practical performance guarantees. We provide a natural extension…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-10 Matthew J. Holland

Image segmentation is a challenging task influenced by multiple sources of uncertainty, such as the data labeling process or the sampling of training data. In this paper we focus on binary segmentation and address these challenges using…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Luca Mossina , Corentin Friedrich

In this paper, we present a novel approach for conformal prediction (CP), in which we aim to identify a set of promising prediction candidates -- in place of a single prediction. This set is guaranteed to contain a correct answer with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-03 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

We introduce new inference procedures for counterfactual and synthetic control methods for policy evaluation. We recast the causal inference problem as a counterfactual prediction and a structural breaks testing problem. This allows us to…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-26 Victor Chernozhukov , Kaspar Wüthrich , Yinchu Zhu

Conformal prediction uses past experience to determine precise levels of confidence in new predictions. Given an error probability $\epsilon$, together with a method that makes a prediction $\hat{y}$ of a label $y$, it produces a set of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-23 Glenn Shafer , Vladimir Vovk

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting by exploiting observations at correlated sequences. Relational deep learning methods leveraging graph representations are among the most effective tools for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Andrea Cini , Alexander Jenkins , Danilo Mandic , Cesare Alippi , Filippo Maria Bianchi

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification. This study explores the application of conformal prediction in scenarios where covariates are missing, which introduces significant challenges for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Jingsen Kong , YIming Liu , Guangren Yang

Conformal prediction builds marginally valid prediction intervals that cover the unknown outcome of a randomly drawn test point with a prescribed probability. However, in practice, data-driven methods are often used to identify specific…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-21 Ying Jin , Zhimei Ren

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-29 António Farinhas , Chrysoula Zerva , Dennis Ulmer , André F. T. Martins

We develop a method to generate prediction sets with a guaranteed coverage rate that is robust to corruptions in the training data, such as missing or noisy variables. Our approach builds on conformal prediction, a powerful framework to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-10 Shai Feldman , Yaniv Romano

This work presents a novel approach to tabular data prediction leveraging graph structure learning and graph neural networks. Despite the prevalence of tabular data in real-world applications, traditional deep learning methods often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-26 Jay Chiehen Liao , Cheng-Te Li

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-15 Etash Guha , Shlok Natarajan , Thomas Möllenhoff , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan , Eugene Ndiaye

Traditional model-based diagnosis relies on constructing explicit system models, a process that can be laborious and expertise-demanding. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that combines concepts of model-based diagnosis with deep…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-10-11 Jan Lukas Augustin , Oliver Niggemann

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-06 Margaux Zaffran , Aymeric Dieuleveut , Julie Josse , Yaniv Romano

Distribution-free uncertainty estimation for ensemble methods is increasingly desirable due to the widening deployment of multi-modal black-box predictive models. Conformal prediction is one approach that avoids such distributional…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-26 Eduardo Ochoa Rivera , Yash Patel , Ambuj Tewari

Conformal prediction is emerging as a popular paradigm for providing rigorous uncertainty quantification in machine learning since it can be easily applied as a post-processing step to already trained models. In this paper, we extend…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Charles Lu , Yaodong Yu , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy , Michael I. Jordan , Ramesh Raskar

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty estimation framework that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true answer with a user-specified probability. Intuitively, the size of the prediction set encodes a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Fabio Valerio Massoli , Christos Louizos , Arash Behboodi

Conformal prediction is a popular uncertainty quantification method that augments a base predictor to return sets of predictions with statistically valid coverage guarantees. However, current methods are often computationally expensive and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Laura Lützow , Michael Eichelbeck , Mykel J. Kochenderfer , Matthias Althoff

Machine learning models that operate on graph-structured data, such as molecular graphs or social networks, often make accurate predictions but offer little insight into why certain predictions are made. Counterfactual explanations address…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-21 David Bechtoldt , Sidney Bender

Conformal Prediction is a robust framework that ensures reliable coverage across machine learning tasks. Although recent studies have applied conformal prediction to graph neural networks, they have largely emphasized post-hoc prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Yuntian He , Pranav Maneriker , Anutam Srinivasan , Aditya T. Vadlamani , Srinivasan Parthasarathy