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This paper is devoted to the problem of determining the concentration bounds that are achievable in non-parametric regression. We consider the setting where features are supported on a bounded subset of $\mathbb{R}^d$, the regression…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-02 Anna Ben-Hamou , Arnaud Guyader

This article introduces a non-parametric information-theoretic approach to inference about the tail of a continuous or a discrete distribution. Leveraging a new concept named tail profile -- a set of information-theoretic quantities…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-19 Jialin Zhang , Zhiyi Zhang

Traditional machine learning paradigms are based on the assumption that both training and test data follow the same statistical pattern, which is mathematically referred to as Independent and Identically Distributed ($i.i.d.$). However, in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-28 Jiashuo Liu , Zheyan Shen , Yue He , Xingxuan Zhang , Renzhe Xu , Han Yu , Peng Cui

A theoretical expression is derived for the mean squared error of a nonparametric estimator of the tail dependence coefficient, depending on a threshold that defines which rank delimits the tails of a distribution. We propose a new method…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-25 Matthieu Garcin , Maxime L. D. Nicolas

We study random design linear regression with no assumptions on the distribution of the covariates and with a heavy-tailed response variable. In this distribution-free regression setting, we show that boundedness of the conditional second…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-25 Jaouad Mourtada , Tomas Vaškevičius , Nikita Zhivotovskiy

Many common estimators in machine learning and causal inference are linear smoothers, where the prediction is a weighted average of the training outcomes. Some estimators, such as ordinary least squares and kernel ridge regression, allow…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-02 David Arbour , Harsh Parikh , Bijan Niknam , Elizabeth Stuart , Kara Rudolph , Avi Feller

A popular assumption for out-of-distribution generalization is that the training data comprises sub-datasets, each drawn from a distinct distribution; the goal is then to "interpolate" these distributions and "extrapolate" beyond them --…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-19 Elan Rosenfeld , Pradeep Ravikumar , Andrej Risteski

In this work, we study over-parameterization as a necessary condition for having the ability for the models to extrapolate outside the convex hull of training set. We specifically, consider classification models, e.g., image classification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-22 Roozbeh Yousefzadeh

There is an increasing need to determine whether inputs are out-of-distribution (\emph{OOD}) for safely deploying machine learning models in the open world scenario. Typical neural classifiers are based on the closed world assumption, where…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-08-15 Sen Pei , Xin Zhang , Bin Fan , Gaofeng Meng

Modelling multivariate tail dependence is one of the key challenges in extreme-value theory. Multivariate extremes are usually characterized using parametric models, some of which have simpler submodels at the boundary of their parameter…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-17 Anna Kiriliouk

Generalizing skill policies to novel conditions remains a key challenge in robot learning. Imitation learning methods, while data-efficient, are largely confined to the training region and consistently fail on input data outside it, leading…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Serdar Bahar , Fatih Dogangun , Matteo Saveriano , Yukie Nagai , Emre Ugur

We introduce a new notion of generalization -- Distributional Generalization -- which roughly states that outputs of a classifier at train and test time are close *as distributions*, as opposed to close in just their average error. For…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-16 Preetum Nakkiran , Yamini Bansal

We present a novel approach for extrapolating causal effects away from the margin between treatment and non-treatment in sharp regression discontinuity designs with multiple covariates. Our methods apply both to settings in which treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-02 Ben Deaner , Soonwoo Kwon

One of the objectives of Continual Learning is to learn new concepts continually over a stream of experiences and at the same time avoid catastrophic forgetting. To mitigate complete knowledge overwriting, memory-based methods store a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Felipe del Rio , Julio Hurtado , Cristian Buc , Alvaro Soto , Vincenzo Lomonaco

One of the major open problems in machine learning is to characterize generalization in the overparameterized regime, where most traditional generalization bounds become inconsistent even for overparameterized linear regression. In many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-22 Jing Xu , Jiaye Teng , Yang Yuan , Andrew Chi-Chih Yao

We propose a metric -- Projection Norm -- to predict a model's performance on out-of-distribution (OOD) data without access to ground truth labels. Projection Norm first uses model predictions to pseudo-label test samples and then trains a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-14 Yaodong Yu , Zitong Yang , Alexander Wei , Yi Ma , Jacob Steinhardt

Transfer learning refers to the promising idea of initializing model fits based on pre-training on other data. We particularly consider regression modeling settings where parameter estimates from previous data can be used as anchoring…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-07 Wessel N. van Wieringen , Harald Binder

Classical approximation and learning methods are typically optimized for interpolation over a sampled domain {\Omega}, with no guarantees on their behavior in an extrapolation region {\Xi}, where small in-domain errors may amplify. We…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-03-11 Guy Hay , Nir Sharon

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is a crucial task for deploying deep learning models in the wild. One of the major challenges is that well-trained deep models tend to perform over-confidence on unseen test data. Recent research attempts…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Mingrong Gong , Chaoqi Chen , Qingqiang Sun , Yue Wang , Hui Huang

Manifold learning methods are useful for high dimensional data analysis. Many of the existing methods produce a low dimensional representation that attempts to describe the intrinsic geometric structure of the original data. Typically, this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-06-07 Oren Barkan , Jonathan Weill , Amir Averbuch