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Related papers: Adaptive Robust Confidence Intervals

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We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-10 Vincent Plassier , Alexander Fishkov , Mohsen Guizani , Maxim Panov , Eric Moulines

The problem of adaptive sampling for estimating probability mass functions (pmf) uniformly well is considered. Performance of the sampling strategy is measured in terms of the worst-case mean squared error. A Bayesian variant of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-09 Dhruva Kartik , Neeraj Sood , Urbashi Mitra , Tara Javidi

We propose a general method for constructing confidence intervals and statistical tests for single or low-dimensional components of a large parameter vector in a high-dimensional model. It can be easily adjusted for multiplicity taking…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-06-24 Sara van de Geer , Peter Bühlmann , Ya'acov Ritov , Ruben Dezeure

A simple construction of adaptive confidence sets is proposed in isotonic, convex and unimodal regression. In univariate isotonic regression, the proposed confidence set enjoys uniform coverage over all non-decreasing regression functions.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-10 Pierre C. Bellec

Certifying the fidelity of a prepared state to a target stabilizer state is a fundamental task in quantum information processing. Ref. [Phys. Rev. A 99, 042337 (2019)] gave the optimal worst-case lower bound from one fixed stabilizer…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-05-29 Kun Wang

In this paper, we develop connections between two seemingly disparate, but central, models in robust statistics: Huber's epsilon-contamination model and the heavy-tailed noise model. We provide conditions under which this connection…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-03 Adarsh Prasad , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Pradeep Ravikumar

In a previous article, a least square regression estimation procedure was proposed: first, we condiser a family of functions and study the properties of an estimator in every unidimensionnal model defined by one of these functions; we then…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Pierre Alquier

Multi-arm bandit experimental designs are increasingly being adopted over standard randomized trials due to their potential to improve outcomes for study participants, enable faster identification of the best-performing options, and/or…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-04 Brian M Cho , Aurélien Bibaut , Nathan Kallus

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a Bayesian machine learning approach widely used to construct surrogate models for the uncertainty quantification of computer simulation codes in industrial applications. It provides both a mean predictor and an…

Motivated by multi-center biomedical studies that cannot share individual data due to privacy and ownership concerns, we develop communication-efficient iterative distributed algorithms for estimation and inference in the high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-25 Pierre Bayle , Jianqing Fan , Zhipeng Lou

Conformal prediction delivers prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage, but its intervals can look overconfident in regions where the model is extrapolating, because standard conformal scores do not explicitly represent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-10 Luben M. C. Cabezas , Sabina J. Sloman , Bruno M. Resende , Fanyi Wu , Michele Caprio , Rafael Izbicki

The robustness of risk measures to changes in underlying loss distributions (distributional uncertainty) is of crucial importance in making well-informed decisions. In this paper, we quantify, for the class of distortion risk measures with…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-03-14 Carole Bernard , Silvana M. Pesenti , Steven Vanduffel

In this paper, we study robust covariance estimation under the approximate factor model with observed factors. We propose a novel framework to first estimate the initial joint covariance matrix of the observed data and the factors, and then…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-02-03 Jianqing Fan , Weichen Wang , Yiqiao Zhong

We develop a Bayesian highest-density interval (HDI) for use in within-subject designs. This credible interval is based on a standard noninformative prior and a modified posterior distribution that conditions on both the data and point…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-14 Farouk S. Nathoo , Robyn E. Kilshaw , Michael E. J. Masson

Conformal prediction, and split conformal prediction as a specific implementation, offer a distribution-free approach to estimating prediction intervals with statistical guarantees. Recent work has shown that split conformal prediction can…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-01 Nicolas Dewolf , Bernard De Baets , Willem Waegeman

The construction of the Bayesian credible (confidence) interval for a Poisson observable including both the signal and background with and without systematic uncertainties is presented. Introducing the conditional probability satisfying the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-05-13 Yong-Sheng Zhu

Estimating the probability of the binomial distribution is a basic problem, which appears in almost all introductory statistics courses and is performed frequently in various studies. In some cases, the parameter of interest is a difference…

Computation · Statistics 2024-08-21 Almog Peer , David Azriel

We propose a robust inferential procedure for assessing uncertainties of parameter estimation in high-dimensional linear models, where the dimension $p$ can grow exponentially fast with the sample size $n$. Our method combines the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-19 Tianqi Zhao , Mladen Kolar , Han Liu

Conformal prediction builds marginally valid prediction intervals that cover the unknown outcome of a randomly drawn test point with a prescribed probability. However, in practice, data-driven methods are often used to identify specific…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-21 Ying Jin , Zhimei Ren

Having a regression model, we are interested in finding two-sided intervals that are guaranteed to contain at least a desired proportion of the conditional distribution of the response variable given a specific combination of predictors. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-03-22 Mohammad Ghasemi Hamed , Mathieu Serrurier , Nicolas Durand