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When studying the causal effect of $x$ on $y$, researchers may conduct regression and report a confidence interval for the slope coefficient $\beta_{x}$. This common confidence interval provides an assessment of uncertainty from sampling…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-26 Brian Knaeble , Braxton Osting , Mark Abramson

To identify the estimand in missing data problems and observational studies, it is common to base the statistical estimation on the "missing at random" and "no unmeasured confounder" assumptions. However, these assumptions are unverifiable…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-09 Qingyuan Zhao , Dylan S. Small , Bhaswar B. Bhattacharya

We investigate the validity of two resampling techniques when carrying out inference on the underlying unknown copula using a recently proposed class of smooth, possibly data-adaptive nonparametric estimators that contains empirical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-16 Ivan Kojadinovic , Bingqing Yi

We propose a method to overcome the usual limitation of current data processing techniques in optical and infrared long-baseline interferometry: most reduction pipelines assume uncorrelated statistical errors and ignore systematics. We use…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2019-01-23 Régis Lachaume , Markus Rabus , Andrés Jordán , Rafael Brahm , Tabetha Boyajian , Kaspar von Braun , Jean-Philippe Berger

Whereas confidence intervals are used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured individuals, confounding intervals can be used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured attributes. Previously, we have introduced a methodology for computing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Brian Knaeble , R Mitchell Hughes

Bayesian optimal experimental design provides a principled framework for selecting experimental settings that maximize obtained information. In this work, we focus on estimating the expected information gain in the setting where the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-02 Chuntao Chen , Tapio Helin , Nuutti Hyvönen , Yuya Suzuki

Causal discovery and causal effect estimation are two fundamental tasks in causal inference. While many methods have been developed for each task individually, statistical challenges arise when applying these methods jointly: estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-21 Paula Gradu , Tijana Zrnic , Yixin Wang , Michael I. Jordan

Split-plot designs find wide applicability in multifactor experiments with randomization restrictions. Practical considerations often warrant the use of unbalanced designs. This paper investigates randomization based causal inference in…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-21 Rahul Mukerjee , Tirthankar Dasgupta

We provide a general solution to a fundamental open problem in Bayesian inference, namely poor uncertainty quantification, from a frequency standpoint, of Bayesian methods in misspecified models. While existing solutions are based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-14 David T. Frazier , Robert Kohn , Christopher Drovandi , David Gunawan

The ISO 5725 series frames interlaboratory precision through repeatability, between-laboratory, and reproducibility variances, yet practical guidance on deploying bootstrap methods within this one-way random-effects setting remains limited.…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-10 Jun-ichi Takeshita , Kazuhiro Morita , Tomomichi Suzuki

When domain knowledge is limited and experimentation is restricted by ethical, financial, or time constraints, practitioners turn to observational causal discovery methods to recover the causal structure, exploiting the statistical…

A key tool to carry out inference on the unknown copula when modeling a continuous multivariate distribution is a nonparametric estimator known as the empirical copula. One popular way of approximating its sampling distribution consists of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-01 Ivan Kojadinovic , Kristina Stemikovskaya

While palliative care is increasingly commonly delivered to hospitalized patients with serious illnesses, few studies have estimated its causal effects. Courtright et al. (2016) adopted a cluster-randomized stepped-wedge design to assess…

In the framework of the estimation of safety margins in nuclear accident analysis, a quantitative assessment of the uncertainties tainting the results of computer simulations is essential. Accurate uncertainty propagation (estimation of…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-01 Bertrand Iooss , Amandine Marrel

Causal inference, as a major research area in statistics and data science, plays a central role across diverse fields such as medicine, economics, education, and the social sciences. Design-based causal inference begins with randomized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Xin Lu , Wanjia Fu , Hongzi Li , Haoyang Yu , Honghao Zhang , Ke Zhu , Hanzhong Liu

Stochastic inverse problems considered in this article consist of estimating the probability distributions of intrinsically random inputs of computer models. These estimations are based on observable outputs affected by model noise, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-17 Nicolas Bousquet , Mélanie Blazère , Thomas Cerbelaud

Measurement error is a common challenge for causal inference studies using electronic health record (EHR) data, where clinical outcomes and treatments are frequently mismeasured. Researchers often address measurement error by conducting…

We propose a methodology for constructing confidence regions with partially identified models of general form. The region is obtained by inverting a test of internal consistency of the econometric structure. We develop a dilation bootstrap…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-02-10 Alfred Galichon , Marc Henry

The aim of this paper is to discuss a recent result which shows that probabilistic inference in the presence of (unknown) causal mechanisms can be tractable for models that have traditionally been viewed as intractable. This result was…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-02-08 Adnan Darwiche

Surrogate endpoints are often used in place of expensive, delayed, or rare true endpoints in clinical trials. However, regulatory authorities require thorough evaluation to accept these surrogate endpoints as reliable substitutes. One…

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