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In matched observational studies with continuous treatments, individuals with different treatment doses but the same or similar covariate values are paired for causal inference. While inexact covariate matching (i.e., covariate imbalance…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-13 Anthony Frazier , Siyu Heng , Wen Zhou

We present unexpected findings from a large-scale benchmark study evaluating Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation algorithms, i.e., CATE models. By running 16 modern CATE models on 12 datasets and 43,200 sampled variants…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-21 Haining Yu , Yizhou Sun

Methods that infer causal dependence from observational data are central to many areas of science, including medicine, economics, and the social sciences. A variety of theoretical properties of these methods have been proven, but empirical…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-08 Amanda Gentzel , Purva Pruthi , David Jensen

The randomized controlled trial (RCT) is the gold standard for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of a medical intervention but requires 100s-1000s of subjects, making it expensive and difficult to implement. While a cross-over…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-05-10 Sayeri Lala , Niraj K. Jha

Randomized controlled trials generate experimental variation that can credibly identify causal effects, but often suffer from limited scale, while observational datasets are large, but often violate desired identification assumptions. To…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-12-27 George Z. Gui

In the online ride-hailing pricing context, companies often conduct randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and utilize uplift models to assess the effect of discounts on customer orders, which substantially influences competitive market…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-24 Kairong Han , Weidong Huang , Taiyang Zhou , Peng Zhen , Kun Kuang

In many practical situations, randomly assigning treatments to subjects is uncommon due to feasibility constraints. For example, economic aid programs and merit-based scholarships are often restricted to those meeting specific income or…

Observational studies have recently received significant attention from the machine learning community due to the increasingly available non-experimental observational data and the limitations of the experimental studies, such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-26 Vinod Kumar Chauhan , Soheila Molaei , Marzia Hoque Tania , Anshul Thakur , Tingting Zhu , David A. Clifton

Recent literature proposes combining short-term experimental and long-term observational data to provide alternatives to conventional observational studies for the identification of long-term average treatment effects (LTEs). This paper…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-20 Filip Obradović

Developing tools for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) and individualized treatment effects has been an area of active research in recent years. While these tools have proven to be useful in many contexts, a concern when…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-07 Mahsa Ashouri , Nicholas C. Henderson

The ICH E9(R1) addendum provides guidelines on accounting for intercurrent events in clinical trials using the estimands framework. However, there has been limited attention to the estimands framework for meta-analysis. Using treatment…

Outcome Reporting Bias (ORB) poses significant threats to the validity of meta-analytic findings. It occurs when researchers selectively report outcomes based on the significance or direction of results, potentially leading to distorted…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-17 Alessandra Gaia Saracini , Leonhard Held

To test scientific theories and develop individualized treatment rules, researchers often wish to learn heterogeneous treatment effects that can be consistently found across diverse populations and contexts. We consider the problem of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-01 Yi Zhang , Melody Huang , Kosuke Imai

In many business applications, including online marketing and customer churn prevention, randomized controlled trials (RCT's) are conducted to investigate on the effect of specific treatment (coupon offers, advertisement mailings,...). Such…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-26 Björn Bokelmann , Stefan Lessmann

Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) are ideal for estimating causal effects, because the distributions of background covariates are similar in expectation across treatment groups. When estimating causal effects using observational data,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-27 Anthony D. Scotina , Roee Gutman

We study causal effect estimation from a mixture of observational and interventional data in a confounded linear regression model with multivariate treatments. We show that the statistical efficiency in terms of expected squared error can…

This paper studies treatment effect models in which individuals are classified into unobserved groups based on heterogeneous treatment rules. Using a finite mixture approach, we propose a marginal treatment effect (MTE) framework in which…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-05-24 Tadao Hoshino , Takahide Yanagi

Amidst rising appreciation for privacy and data usage rights, researchers have increasingly acknowledged the principle of data minimization, which holds that the accessibility, collection, and retention of subjects' data should be kept to…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2021-10-22 Winston Chou

Treatment effect estimation can assist in effective decision-making in e-commerce, medicine, and education. One popular application of this estimation lies in the prediction of the impact of a treatment (e.g., a promotion) on an outcome…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-26 Xiaofeng Lin , Guoxi Zhang , Xiaotian Lu , Han Bao , Koh Takeuchi , Hisashi Kashima

Accurately estimating personalized treatment effects within a study site (e.g., a hospital) has been challenging due to limited sample size. Furthermore, privacy considerations and lack of resources prevent a site from leveraging…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-17 Xiaoqing Tan , Chung-Chou H. Chang , Ling Zhou , Lu Tang