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Deploying clinical prediction models across healthcare systems often fails when key training covariates are unavailable at deployment and labeled outcomes are limited in the target domain. For example, high-performing models for…

Gradient boosted trees are competition-winning, general-purpose, non-parametric regressors, which exploit sequential model fitting and gradient descent to minimize a specific loss function. The most popular implementations are tailored to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-23 Lorenzo Nespoli , Vasco Medici

Modern neural networks have proven to be powerful function approximators, providing state-of-the-art performance in a multitude of applications. They however fall short in their ability to quantify confidence in their predictions - this is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-29 Alex J. Chan , Ahmed M. Alaa , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

Covariate-adaptive randomization is widely employed to balance baseline covariates in interventional studies such as clinical trials and experiments in development economics. Recent years have witnessed substantial progress in inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-30 Jiahui Xin , Hanzhong Liu , Wei Ma

General circulation models (GCMs) are essential tools for climate studies. Such climate models may have varying accuracy across the input domain, but no model is uniformly best. One can improve climate model prediction performance by…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 John C. Yannotty , Thomas J. Santner , Bo Li , Matthew T. Pratola

Clustered data, which arise when observations are nested within groups, are incredibly common in clinical, education, and social science research. Traditionally, a linear mixed model, which includes random effects to account for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Kevin McCoy , Zachary Wooten , Katarzyna Tomczak , Christine B. Peterson

Recent works have shown that deep neural networks can achieve super-human performance in a wide range of image classification tasks in the medical imaging domain. However, these works have primarily focused on classification accuracy,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-09-10 Gongbo Liang , Yu Zhang , Xiaoqin Wang , Nathan Jacobs

Predictive models that generalize well under distributional shift are often desirable and sometimes crucial to building robust and reliable machine learning applications. We focus on distributional shift that arises in causal inference from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-27 Fredrik D. Johansson , Nathan Kallus , Uri Shalit , David Sontag

BCART (Bayesian Classification and Regression Trees) and BART (Bayesian Additive Regression Trees) are popular Bayesian regression models widely applicable in modern regression problems. Their popularity is intimately tied to the ability to…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-19 Matthew T. Pratola , Edward I. George , Robert E. McCulloch

Tabular learning transforms raw features into optimized spaces for downstream tasks, but its effectiveness deteriorates under distribution shifts between training and testing data. We formalize this challenge as the Distribution Shift…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-28 Wangyang Ying , Nanxu Gong , Dongjie Wang , Xinyuan Wang , Arun Vignesh Malarkkan , Vivek Gupta , Chandan K. Reddy , Yanjie Fu

Covariate adjustment is one method of causal effect identification in non-experimental settings. Prior research provides routes for finding appropriate adjustments sets, but much of this research assumes knowledge of the underlying causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-04 Sara LaPlante , Sofia Triantafillou , Emilija Perković

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a popular Bayesian non-parametric regression model that is commonly used in causal inference and beyond. Its strong predictive performance is supported by well-developed estimation theory,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Yan Shuo Tan , Omer Ronen , Theo Saarinen , Bin Yu

Undirected graphical models encode in a graph $G$ the dependency structure of a random vector $Y$. In many applications, it is of interest to model $Y$ given another random vector $X$ as input. We refer to the problem of estimating the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-06-22 Han Liu , Xi Chen , John Lafferty , Larry Wasserman

In modern machine learning applications, frequent encounters of covariate shift and label scarcity have posed challenges to robust model training and evaluation. Numerous transfer learning methods have been developed to robustly adapt the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-22 Linshanshan Wang , Xuan Wang , Katherine P. Liao , Tianxi Cai

Quantification learning is the task of predicting the label distribution of a set of instances. We study this problem in the context of graph-structured data, where the instances are vertices. Previously, this problem has only been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Clemens Damke , Eyke Hüllermeier

Although considerable progress has been obtained in neural network quantization for efficient inference, existing methods are not scalable to heterogeneous devices as one dedicated model needs to be trained, transmitted, and stored for one…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-13 Hai Wu , Ruifei He , Haoru Tan , Xiaojuan Qi , Kaibin Huang

We develop and analyze a principled approach to kernel ridge regression under covariate shift. The goal is to learn a regression function with small mean squared error over a target distribution, based on unlabeled data from there and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-25 Kaizheng Wang

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable progress, with post-training playing a crucial role in enhancing their reasoning capabilities. Among post-training paradigms, supervised fine-tuning (SFT) is widely used: it leverages…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Lisong Sun , Li Wang , Chen Zhang , Jinyang Wu , Kui Zhang , Tianhao Peng , Wenjun Wu

Tree-based models are widely recognized for their interpretability and have proven effective in various application domains, particularly in high-stakes domains. However, learning decision trees (DTs) poses a significant challenge due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Sascha Marton

Covariate shift has been shown to sharply degrade both predictive accuracy and the calibration of uncertainty estimates for deep learning models. This is worrying, because covariate shift is prevalent in a wide range of real world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-18 Zachary Nado , Shreyas Padhy , D. Sculley , Alexander D'Amour , Balaji Lakshminarayanan , Jasper Snoek